It is looking like our first significant chances for rainfall at DFW will materialize by Sunday into Tuesday as a cold front and upper-disturbance approaches the region. Until then, we must contend with strong ridging over our area with gusty southerly winds. Combined with dried fuels, low humidity, and near record warmth, these strong winds will present elevated fire weather concerns, especially west of the I-35 corridor where Red Flag Warnings have been issued. The strong winds today will gust to near 40 mph at times, as a result, the National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a Wind Advisory for all of our forecast area. Temperatures will warm some 15 to 20 degrees above seasonal normal values with highs approaching or exceeding 80°F today and tomorrow. Overnight lows tonight will be near our normal high temperature for this time of year, struggling to get below 60°F, if at all.

The ridging should begin to relax on Saturday transitioning to more zonal flow aloft. This will allow the trough and cold front across the Central Plains to begin slowly sagging southward. This front will move across our area rather slowly beginning on Sunday. As it does, a disturbance will move across enhancing lift across our area which will enable showers and thunderstorms to fire. The best chance of rain will be along and behind the front as it moves through Sunday night into Monday. The highest moisture will be along and east of the I-35 corridor, thus this is where the best chances reside for receiving the most rainfall with this system. It is too early to say with confidence exact amounts, but we could be looking at widespread 1 inch plus amounts along and east of the I-35 corridor, especially with PWATs expected to climb as high as 1.50 inches.