Overview
Autumn 2025 has been exceptional across North Texas. As of mid-October, DFW Airport has yet to record a temperature below 60°F — something unprecedented in local climate history. Even if the first sub-60°F low occurs before the end of the month, this will be the latest such occurrence on record by a wide margin.
With September and October both running well above normal, 2025 is shaping up to be among the hottest falls ever observed in the Dallas–Fort Worth area. Historically, every one of the top ten warmest falls at DFW has been followed by a warm winter overall, often featuring mild, dry conditions and only brief cold intrusions.
Historical Context
While most warm falls precede mild winters, there have been exceptions. One notable case was 1963–64, when a very warm October gave way to one of the coldest winters on record for North Texas. This highlights that a warm start to fall doesn’t completely preclude an eventual pattern flip — especially if large-scale oceanic and atmospheric signals favor high-latitude blocking.
Key Climate Signals
- Pacific Ocean/ENSO: Current projections favor a neutral to weak La Niña for winter 2025–26. Some of the region’s coldest temperatures have occurred during weak La Niña events, but stronger ridging across the southern U.S. tends to dominate if the Pacific pattern remains zonal.
- North Pacific & Gulf of Alaska: Sea-surface temperatures remain anomalously warm in the Gulf of Alaska. This setup can promote ridging over Alaska, occasionally dislodging Arctic air into the central U.S. if the downstream pattern aligns properly.
- Stratospheric Conditions: A significant stratospheric warming event over the South Pole in September may have longer-term implications for the global circulation. Historically, such events can sometimes precede a greater likelihood of high-latitude blocking in the Northern Hemisphere later in the season, which can open the door for Arctic outbreaks.
Outlook Summary
Considering the overall pattern, DFW’s winter of 2025–26 appears most likely to be warmer than normal, with limited opportunities for sustained cold. That said, one or two sharp Arctic intrusions cannot be ruled out — especially if the Gulf of Alaska ridge strengthens or the polar jet becomes more amplified later in the season.
In short:
- Temperature: Above normal overall
- Precipitation: Near to below normal
- Cold Outbreak Risk: Low to moderate, mainly mid to late winter