Category Archives: Climate

DFW WINTER 2025-26 OUTLOOK

Overview
Autumn 2025 has been exceptional across North Texas. As of mid-October, DFW Airport has yet to record a temperature below 60°F — something unprecedented in local climate history. Even if the first sub-60°F low occurs before the end of the month, this will be the latest such occurrence on record by a wide margin.

With September and October both running well above normal, 2025 is shaping up to be among the hottest falls ever observed in the Dallas–Fort Worth area. Historically, every one of the top ten warmest falls at DFW has been followed by a warm winter overall, often featuring mild, dry conditions and only brief cold intrusions.

Historical Context
While most warm falls precede mild winters, there have been exceptions. One notable case was 1963–64, when a very warm October gave way to one of the coldest winters on record for North Texas. This highlights that a warm start to fall doesn’t completely preclude an eventual pattern flip — especially if large-scale oceanic and atmospheric signals favor high-latitude blocking.

Key Climate Signals

  • Pacific Ocean/ENSO: Current projections favor a neutral to weak La Niña for winter 2025–26. Some of the region’s coldest temperatures have occurred during weak La Niña events, but stronger ridging across the southern U.S. tends to dominate if the Pacific pattern remains zonal.
  • North Pacific & Gulf of Alaska: Sea-surface temperatures remain anomalously warm in the Gulf of Alaska. This setup can promote ridging over Alaska, occasionally dislodging Arctic air into the central U.S. if the downstream pattern aligns properly.
  • Stratospheric Conditions: A significant stratospheric warming event over the South Pole in September may have longer-term implications for the global circulation. Historically, such events can sometimes precede a greater likelihood of high-latitude blocking in the Northern Hemisphere later in the season, which can open the door for Arctic outbreaks.

Outlook Summary
Considering the overall pattern, DFW’s winter of 2025–26 appears most likely to be warmer than normal, with limited opportunities for sustained cold. That said, one or two sharp Arctic intrusions cannot be ruled out — especially if the Gulf of Alaska ridge strengthens or the polar jet becomes more amplified later in the season.

In short:

  • Temperature: Above normal overall
  • Precipitation: Near to below normal
  • Cold Outbreak Risk: Low to moderate, mainly mid to late winter

THE ARCTIC BLAST BROUGHT RECORD-BREAKING COLD TO DFW

Our Arctic blast this past week broke many temperature records at DFW Airport, the official climate site for the DFW Metroplex. DFW went below freezing at approximately 4:53 pm on February 18, 2025, and did not get above freezing until, yesterday, February 21, 2025 at around 3:59 pm. That is 71 consecutive hours of subfreezing temperatures. Far from our record of 295 hours, set in December 1983, but notable nonetheless, especially so late in the winter season. During that time several temperature records were broken as follows:

  1. A record low maximum temperature was set on February 19th of 28°F which broke the old record of 31°F set in 2006 and 1903.
  2. A record low temperature of 12°F was set on February 20th breaking the old record of 19°F set in 1939.
  3. A record low maximum temperature was set on February 20th of 31°F which broke the old record of 35°F set in 1904.
  4. A record low maximum temperature was set on February 21st of 33°F which broke the old record of 37°F set in 1911.

NOVEMBER 2024 THE NINTH HOTTEST ON RECORD / FALL 2024 THE THIRD HOTTEST ON RECORD FOR DFW

November 2024 ended up being the ninth hottest November on record for DFW with an average temperature of 61.7°F.

The fall of 2024 is the third hottest on record for DFW with an average temperature of 72.2°F. Only 2016 (the hottest fall on record) and 1931 surpass 2024 with warmer average fall temperatures in DFW.

It should be noted that both the winters of 1931-1932 and 2016-2017 were top ten hottest winters on record. In fact, the winter of 2016-2017 was the hottest winter on record for DFW. For those wanting to know, if we can glean anything from past data, we could be looking at a very warm winter ahead.

OCTOBER 2024 IS THE HOTTEST OCTOBER ON RECORD FOR DFW

October 2024 turned out to be the hottest October on record for Dallas/Fort Worth. Officially at DFW Airport, the average temperature for the month was 75.7°F. That is 8 degrees above our average October temperature. The top five hottest Octobers for DFW are as follows:

  1. October 2024 – 75.7°F Avg temp
  2. October 2016 – 74.1°F
  3. October 1963 – 73.5°F
  4. October 1947 – 73.2°F
  5. October 1934 – 73.2°F

We were on target to be the driest October on record, but we ended up getting 0.21 inches of rain on Halloween. That saved us from being the driest October on record. The driest October on record is still 1975 with only a trace of precipitation recorded for the whole month. Our average rainfall for October is 4.37 inches.

DFW OFFICIALLY HITS 110°F FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 12 YEARS WHICH IS EXCEPTIONALLY RARE

Yesterday, the temperature at DFW Airport climbed to a whopping 110°F. The last time this happened was during the hot summer of 2011. Before that, you have to go back to the summer of 2000. This is exceptionally rare, and conditions have to be just right for it to occur. Out of 124 years of weather records, we have only hit the 110°F mark or greater 12 other times. Five of those times occurred during the record breaking summer of 1980. Statistically, this is about a once in a decade occurrence. The hottest DFW has ever been was during June of 1980 when the mercury hit 113°F. Below is table of all the occurrences of temperatures of 110°F or greater in the DFW weather records:

UPDATE: The summer of 2023 now becomes the second year to have more than one day with a temperature at or above 110°F. Yesterday, August 26, 2023 DFW Airport set a record high of 110°F which also broke the daily record. The only other year to have multiple days at or above 110°F was the summer of 1980 (which had 5), as you can see below. This also pushes our tally of a total of 14 – 110°F degree days over our entire weather records history.

DATETEMP IN °F
6/26/1980113
6/27/1980 113
8/11/1936112
8/18/1909112
6/28/1980112
9/4/2000111
8/2/2011110
8/10/1936110
8/16/1943110
8/25/2023110
7/12/1998110
7/2/1980110
7/18/1980110
8/26/2023110

HOURS BELOW FREEZING LAST WEEK

During last week’s wintry weather, some locations remained at or below freezing for more than 100 hours. Hearne rose above freezing during each day of the event, but Granbury remained at or below freezing from late Sunday (January 29) until early Friday (February 3), a total of 111 consecutive hours. Officially at DFW Airport, the total number of consecutive hours below freezing was 88 hours. The all time record number of consecutive hours spent below freezing for the DFW Metroplex is 295 hours from 7:00 am December 18, 1983 to 2:00 pm December 30, 1983.

RECORD HEAT AT DFW YESTERDAY AND TODAY

The official high yesterday was 83°F at DFW Airport. This broke the old record of 79°F set in 2017.

Expect similar conditions again today as temperatures soar into the lower 80s ahead of a rather strong cold front. Tomorrow temperatures will be some 25 degrees cooler. Thus the record high of 83°F set in 1911 will be in jeopardy of being tied or broken.

UPDATE: The record of 83°F set in 1911 for January 11th was in fact broken yesterday as the temperature officially hit 85°F at DFW Airport.

The hottest January temperature ever recorded was 93°F set on January 31, 1911.

SUMMER 2022 THE 4TH HOTTEST ON RECORD FOR DFW

Summer 2022 came in as the fourth hottest on record officially for DFW. The average temperature was 88.2°F for the three month period beginning June 1st through August 31st. We had a total of 47 days of 100°F heat. 21 of those days were consecutive from July 16th through August 5th. The first 100-degree day of the summer was 103°F on June 11th. The last 100-degree day was 102°F on August 17th. The average number of 100-degree days per summer season is about 16. The hottest temperature of the summer was 109°F that occurred three consecutive days on July 18th through the 20th. The coolest temperature of the summer was 65°F on June 2nd.

The top five hottest summers on record for DFW with their average temperature are as follows:

  1. 2011 90.5°F with 71 100-degree days
  2. 1980 89.2°F with 69 100-degree days
  3. 1998 88.3°F with 56 100-degree days
  4. 2022 88.2°F with 47 100-degree days
  5. 1954 87.7°F with 52 100-degree days

AUGUST 2022 THE WETTEST AUGUST ON RECORD FOR DFW

The extraordinary rain event we have had this week has broken many records for DFW. Officially, we are now the wettest August ever recorded at DFW Airport with 10.38 inches of rain so far this month. This breaks the old monthly record of 10.33 inches set in August of 1915.

The daily rain record for both August 21st and 22nd were shattered. We recorded 3.53 inches of rain on August 21st, which broke the old daily record of 2.25 inches set in 1919. For August 22nd, we officially recorded 5.66 inches of rain, which broke the old record of 2.47 inches set in 1916.

The 24-hour period of rain that we received beginning on August 21st and ending August 22nd was the second rainiest 24-hour period on record with a total of 9.19 inches of rain. The most rain ever received in a 24-hour period was 9.57 inches of rain on September 4th and 5th of 1932.