Category Archives: Climate

2016 IS THE HOTTEST NOVEMBER ON RECORD AT DFW

The unprecedented heat continues with November 2016 being the hottest November on record at DFW Airport. The mean average temperature is 63.6°F breaking the old record of 63.2°F set in 1909. Interestingly, December 1909 was anything but warm and is one the top coldest Decembers on record for DFW. I wonder if 2016 will follow a similar pattern?

COLD AIR TO FINALLY ARRIVE IN NORTH TEXAS

So far this fall it has been exceptionally warm, but things are about to change as a major cold front is expected by Thursday night. For those wondering where all the cold air has been, some of it is about to arrive as the coldest air so far this season invades North Texas. The cold air has been locked up on the other side of the globe across much of Russia and Europe. In parts of Russia, temperature departures have been running as much as 50 below normal. Global signals have been pointing to a northern hemispheric pattern change for about the last ten days or so and the beginning will be occurring later this week.

Until the cold air arrives, near record breaking heat will be possible, especially tomorrow where temperatures may sore into the mid and upper 80s for highs. As a strong upper storm system digs along the west coast, southwesterly flow aloft and southerly flow at the surface will help bring up Gulf moisture into the area beginning tomorrow into Thursday. As the storm system begins pushing out onto the Plains, height falls will overspread North Texas allowing the pressure gradient to tighten making for a very windy day Thursday with gusts up to 35 mph possible. A strong cold front will push southward on Thursday night. As it does so, an initial EML will give way some scattered showers and thunderstorm development along the boundary as it pushes through the area Thursday night into early Friday morning. Not everyone will get rain, and the further east one goes across the forecast area, the better the rain chances.

Behind the cold front, expect much cooler/colder air will invade the area. Friday will see the high temperatures probably earlier in the day with near steady to slowly falling temperatures throughout the day. Lows by Saturday morning will for sure fall into the 40s area wide and highs on Saturday will struggle to reach 60°F, even under full insolation. By Sunday morning, the high pressure cell will build directly overhead into North Texas allowing for clear skies and an excellent radiational cooling setup. Lows should drop into the 30s area wide with some of the colder spots reaching freezing. The first frost of the season looks like a good bet for much of the area on Sunday morning.

DFW SETS UNPRECEDENTED RECORD OF BEING LATEST TO EVER FALL BELOW 50°F

Officially at DFW Airport, the mercury has not fallen below 50°F. There are currently no indications that it will do so anytime soon. The old record was actually set last year on November 8, 2015 as the latest date to fall below 50°F. Below are the top 5 latest dates that DFW has not fallen below 50°F:

  1. 2016 ?
  2. November 8, 2015
  3. November 3, 2004 and 1950
  4. October 31, 2014
  5. October 30, 1931

Whenever we do actually fall below 50°F this season will be some unprecedented record for the area. Currently, there are no indications we will fall below 40°F. That record may also be in jeopardy if we don’t do so by the end of the month.

HOTTEST OCTOBER AND HOTTEST YEAR ON RECORD FOR DFW?

So far this October, the mercury at DFW Airport has officially not fallen below 50°F. Given the weather pattern out through the end of the month, it is pretty much a lock that we will not fall below 50°F before October is over. There has only been four other years in weather recorded history that the temperature failed to fall below 50°F, 1947 (53°F lowest), 1950 (51°F lowest), 2004 (51°F lowest), and 2015 (51°F lowest). In addition, October 2016 is on track to be the warmest October ever recorded with a mean running temperature of 74°F (through October 28th). The entire year of 2016 is currently on track to be the hottest year in DFW weather recorded history with a mean temperature of 71.7°F (through October 28th).

DFW OFFICIALLY HITS 100°F FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SUMMER

On July 22, 2016, DFW Airport records its first 100°F temperature of the 2016 summer season. The average first day for triple digit heat is usually around July 1st. The above normal precipitation, both year-to-date and since last year, has kept soils moist and greenery unusually lush well into July. In conjunction with strong summer ridging, which has largely been centered in the desert southwest part of the CONUS this summer, has prevented temperatures from being too terribly hot by Texas standards. We may again flirt with the century mark today, but temperatures will be coming down as the ridge retrogrades back west from troughiness diving into the northern part of the country. This will allow some rain chances to creep back into our forecast next week and temperatures should stay below the century mark for much of next week.

IT’S JULY 4TH AND DFW HAS NOT REACHED 100°F YET

It’s July 4th with 1/3rd of the summer behind us, and it has not officially hit the century mark at DFW Airport this season. What gives? Well, the average date for the first triple digit reading at DFW Airport is actually only July 1st. There are several other factors that have kept us below the century mark so far.  For one, we have seen above normal precipitation to date. This collects in the ground and keeps the grounds from drying out like it normally would this time of year. The increased precipitation has also kept things greener than normal. The evapotranspiration effects (the process by which water is evaporated back into the atmosphere from the soil and plants) actually helps to slow the temperature rise while also providing more humidity which makes it feel hotter than it actually is outside. Another reason the temperatures have largely remained below 100°F is that the typical summertime ridging has largely been centered out to our west across the desert southwest. It has been very hot in this region so far this summer. The influences of this ridge has so far been pretty minimal compared to other summers. North Texas has actually been caught between the ridging out west and troughing over the east, and this has provided for more northerly/northwesterly flow aloft patterns than is typical during summer. This has actually allowed more opportunities for rain as disturbances move into our area around the ridge. So, given that DFW Airport picked up another nearly 2 inches of rainfall overnight, the ridge not fully building in strong keeping heights lower and H85 temps not as warm, and a breezy pattern at the surface keeping the boundary layer well mixed, the chances of seeing 100°F at DFW Airport over the next few days seems pretty unlikely. Highs will continue to top out around 96°F to 98°F with heat index values between 103°F and 105°F.

DFW 2015 YEAR IN REVIEW

2015 was the 19th hottest year on record for DFW with an average temperature of 67.2°F. December 2015 was the second hottest on record behind 1933 for the area with an average mean temperature of 53.6°F. It was the wettest year in all of DFW weather recorded history with an incredible 62.61 inches of rainfall. May 2015 was the wettest May ever recorded for the area with a whopping 16.96 inches of rainfall. Thanksgiving 2015 was the second wettest Thanksgiving of record with 2.71 inches of rainfall. The highest temperature for the year was 106°F on August 9th and 10th. The lowest temperature for the year was 16°F on January 8th.