000
FXUS64 KFWD 051716
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1116 AM CST Thu Dec 5 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation... 

.KEY MESSAGES...
  
- Cool and breezy conditions are expected today.

- Additional rain chances arrive across North and Central Texas
  Friday through Sunday.
 
&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Rest of Today through Friday/

After the front cleared out this morning's fog, quiet conditions
are expected the rest of today. A slight breeze out of the N/NW
will continue through the afternoon with speeds near 10 to 20 mph.
There will be plenty of sunshine along with some scattered 
mid/high clouds, although cooler air filtering in will offset 
warming. Highs will top out in the low to mid 50s across much of 
North TX, while Central TX climbs into the upper 50s/low 60s. 

Winds will decrease in speed tonight, which will help overnight
lows drop to near or below freezing for all of North TX, most of
the Big Country, and a few locations in East Texas east of I-45. 
Most of Central TX will remain in the mid 30s. Winds will become 
easterly tomorrow morning ahead of the pattern change leading into
the weekend. Isentropic ascent will increase ahead of the 
approaching system from the west, with a gradual uptick in column 
moisture through Friday afternoon. Scattered mid and high clouds 
will already be in place, with low clouds starting to move in from
the west by late afternoon/early evening. A few showers will be 
possible by early afternoon across western Central TX, but the 
better rain chances will hold off until Friday night. Otherwise, 
it'll be cooler Friday with highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s. 

Gordon

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 313 AM CST Thu Dec 5 2024/
/Friday Night through Wednesday/

After a brief break, clouds and rain chances will make a quick
return to the region starting Friday night as an upper low spreads
out of the Desert Southwest and into West Texas. Strong low level
warm advection should result in a blossoming of showers and a few
thunderstorms well to the southwest during the day Friday and this
activity should increase in coverage as is moves northeast Friday
night. A secondary shortwave will dig into the back side of this
upper low early Saturday with low and mid level wind fields
strengthening as strong height falls spread into West Texas. This
should enhance the low level isentropic ascent and allow showers
and a few thunderstorms to become widespread during the day
Saturday across Central and North Texas. Activity will continue
into Saturday night with a secondary increase in coverage expected
late overnight into early Sunday morning, mainly east of I-35.
Precipitation chances should end from west to east during the day
Sunday as the main upper trough moves east. Widespread rainfall
amounts of 1 to 2 inches will be possible with heavier amounts
across our far eastern and southeastern counties.

Moisture will only be partially scoured out behind this system and
another potent shortwave will approach on Tuesday. A strong cold
front associated with this system will spill southward through the
Plains late Monday night and move through North Texas on Tuesday
ahead of the strongest forcing for ascent. While temperatures will
be above freezing, we'll monitor the potential for additional 
rainfall late Tuesday evening into the nighttime hours mainly
across our eastern counties. While this will be a fast moving
system, temperatures are expected to drop below freezing areawide
both Tuesday night and Wednesday night.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

No significant aviation concerns with VFR prevailing. NNE winds 
will continue with speeds 12-15 kts and occasional gusts near 
20-22 kts, along with scattered mid and high level clouds. Winds
will decrease in speed this evening and remain less than 10 kts
through the rest of the period, becoming easterly by mid to late
morning Friday.

Gordon

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    54  33  51  39  48 /   0   0   5  50  80 
Waco                60  35  52  39  47 /   0   0  20  70  80 
Paris               52  28  47  36  49 /   0   0   0  30  50 
Denton              54  28  51  36  49 /   0   0   5  50  70 
McKinney            54  28  50  36  49 /   0   0   0  50  70 
Dallas              56  33  52  40  48 /   0   0   5  50  80 
Terrell             55  30  50  37  48 /   0   0   0  60  80 
Corsicana           59  34  52  40  49 /   0   0  10  60  80 
Temple              61  35  53  38  48 /   5   0  40  70  80 
Mineral Wells       57  29  53  37  49 /   0   0  10  60  80 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$