000
FXUS64 KFWD 120620
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
120 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation... 

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and storms will develop across the region
  later this morning and will linger through the weekend and into
  early next week. The best chances will be near and north of the
  Highway 380 corridor. Some storms could produce gusty winds as 
  well as heavy rain and localized flooding.

- Drier and hotter weather is expected Tuesday through the end of
  the week with heat index readings up to 105 possible.
 
&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Sunday Night/

The stout mid-level shortwave trough that moved into the Central 
Plains on Friday will continue progressing southeast through the 
Plains overnight tonight and through the day Saturday. A trailing 
surface cold front, currently analyzed across Kansas, will 
accompany this wave. While the front is expected to to drift 
across Oklahoma and eventually stall in the vicinity of the Red 
River, we should also keep a close eye on the ongoing convection 
ahead of the surface boundary. The late evening radar mosaic shows
a mature thunderstorm complex in the Texas Panhandle. 

As we have seen multiple times this season already, some of the 
CAMs have been persistently showing this convection quickly 
decaying over the next few hours with the expectation that 
increasing convective inhibition will continue to limit the 
intensity. However, it should be noted that a modest increase in 
the low-level jet (as sampled by recent KFWS and KDYX VWP obs) 
could actually help sustain this complex longer than expected 
allowing for multiple outflow boundaries to push into southwest 
Oklahoma and adjacent parts of western North Texas. These 
boundaries will likely serve as the primary focus for renewed 
development later today.

Beginning as early as mid-morning and through the afternoon, 
convection is expected to rapidly develop in two favored areas: 
(1) along lingering outflow and/or differential heating zones near
and north of the I-20 corridor, and (2) across Central Texas in 
response to an active inland-penetrating sea breeze. The 
thermodynamic environment will be characterized by moderate 
instability (MUCAPE values around 1500-2500 J/kg), and weak deep-
layer shear. This will support scattered, disorganized convection 
with the potential for a few stronger (sub-severe) storms capable 
of producing brief downbursts up to 50 mph in addition to locally 
heavy rainfall.

As the primary shortwave trough lifts toward the Ohio Valley 
Saturday evening, global and ensemble guidance continue to 
indicate that a weak upper low will develop somewhere near North 
Texas late Saturday night or early Sunday morning. This feature, 
cut off from the main flow and embedded in a weakly diffluent mid-
level pattern, will help sustain widespread precipitation chances 
overnight...despite the loss of surface-based instability...and 
through Sunday afternoon. 

...Flooding Potential...
With precipitable water values in the 1.5-2.2" range (100-150% of
the normal values for early July) and mid-level winds remaining 
weak (less than 20 kts), storm motions will be slow and conducive 
to cell training, especially north of I-20. CAMs (HREF, RRFS) and 
global guidance (GFS, ECMWF) consistently highlight a corridor of 
1-3" of rainfall along the Red River over the next 48 hours, with 
isolated higher amounts approaching 4+" not out of the question. 
Though we are not expecting widespread heavy rainfall, localized 
heavy rainfall amid efficient warm rain processes will likely lead
to increasing concerns for flooding this weekend. Urban areas 
will be particularly vulnerable due to lower infiltration capacity
and recent rainfall. As a result, a Flood Watch has been issued 
from 12 PM Saturday through 7 PM Sunday for most of our counties 
along and west of I-35, including the DFW Metroplex, in 
anticipation of localized flash flooding from prolonged or 
repeated rainfall. 

12

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Next Week/

Convection will likely persist well into Sunday night across much
of North Texas and parts of Central Texas, though the gradual 
eastward drift or the upper level low may lead to a brief relative
minimum in rain chances before midnight. The upper low will begin
to accelerate northeastward by Monday, allowing subsidence to 
gradually increase in its wake. That said, some diurnally driven 
showers and storms may persist, especially across North and East 
Texas, where ascent and moisture will remain the most favorable. 
Tuesday through the remainder of the week looks quieter, with 
building mid-level heights and returning south-southwesterly flow 
aloft. Temperatures will trend seasonably hot with highs in the 
low to mid 90s and afternoon heat indices ranging from 98 to 105F.
Rain chances will not be zero, but any convection will be 
isolated and likely confined to areas either along and north of 
the Red River or in far southeast Texas. 

12

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06Z TAFs/

A developing upper low near the Red River will provide several 
opportunities for thunderstorms across the area this weekend. 
Possible impacts to the Metroplex TAF sites should begin late 
Saturday afternoon or Saturday evening, with convection 
initializing on outflow boundaries left over from dissipating 
storms off to the northwest. Will push back the introduction of 
VCTS to 13/00Z based on the latest guidance and slow southeast 
movement of the OK/TX Panhandle storms. Isolated seabreeze-induced
convection will affect KACT a little earlier. Coverage may be 
lower, but will still indicate VCTS at KACT starting at 12/21Z.

Thunderstorm activity will weaken late evening (around 05Z in the
Metroplex and 03Z at KACT), though will need to keep an eye on any
isolated nocturnal convection which may develop Saturday night.
The next round of potentially impactful convection looks to be
after this forecast cycle on Sunday. Otherwise, MVFR ceilings are
a good bet Saturday morning from 10-16Z at KACT and 12-16Z in the
Metroplex.

30

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    92  74  89  74  92 /  40  50  50  30  30 
Waco                91  74  91  74  92 /  40  30  40  20  20 
Paris               91  72  90  73  91 /  50  50  50  30  40 
Denton              92  72  88  73  91 /  50  50  60  30  40 
McKinney            91  74  88  73  91 /  50  50  60  30  40 
Dallas              93  74  91  75  93 /  40  50  50  30  30 
Terrell             93  74  91  73  92 /  40  40  50  20  30 
Corsicana           93  75  93  75  94 /  40  30  40  20  20 
Temple              92  73  91  72  92 /  40  30  40  20  20 
Mineral Wells       91  72  88  72  91 /  50  60  60  40  40 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from this afternoon through Sunday evening for 
TXZ091>094-100>104-115>119-129>132-141>143-156.

&&

$$