000
FXUS64 KFWD 142337
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
637 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025
...New Aviation, Short Term...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A complex of thunderstorms may push into parts of North Texas
Sunday morning into early Sunday afternoon (30-40% chance).
- Low rain chances (15-25%) continue into early next week with
seasonably hot and humid conditions.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
Midday short term guidance continues to depict a 30-40% chance for
a thunderstorm complex originating in northern Oklahoma overnight
to push southward into North Texas tomorrow morning. Its exact
trajectory and longevity remain uncertain, but areas near and east
of I-35 should be slightly favored for such a complex to advance
towards. While organized severe weather would be rather unlikely
as this complex decays the farther south it moves, it should be
capable of marginally severe wind gusts and likely some small hail
as well. In addition, convection will once again flare up across
parts of Southeast Texas early tomorrow afternoon, some of which
is likely to spill into our southeastern zones along consolidated
outflows. High temperatures for areas removed from influences of
convection will reach the low to mid 90s with some heat index
values up to 105, while the midday convective complex could hold
a few areas in the mid/upper 80s if this solution materializes.
-Stalley
Previous Discussion:
/Through Sunday/
A complex of strong to severe thunderstorms currently over Central
Oklahoma will shift east-southeast this afternoon potentially
swiping a few of our Red River counties, namely Grayson, Fannin,
and Lamar in 2-3 hours. Gusty winds and heavy rainfall will be
possible in the stronger segments of the line. Scattered
convection will also shift into our southeastern, Brazos Valley
counties this afternoon and evening. The stronger cores will
produce brief, heavy rainfall and lightning. Otherwise, expect a
warm, humid afternoon with highs in the low to mid 90s and peak
heat indices in the 98-105 degree range.
North and Central Texas will remain on the northeastern periphery
of a building mid-level ridge over West Texas and New Mexico
through the short-term forecast period. This will keep northerly
flow aloft and allow another thunderstorm complex to shift out of
Oklahoma toward our forecast area Sunday morning. High-resolution
guidance has come into larger agreement that this complex of
storms will push south of the I-20 corridor by midday Sunday
before dissipating during the afternoon. However, the ultimate
track of this system will be determined by its origin, so
confidence is still on the lower end regarding its placement.
Widespread severe weather is not expected, but isolated 50+ mph
wind gusts will be possible along the leading edge of this
thunderstorm complex with the best chances for strong winds
residing north of the I-20 corridor. Scattered convection is
likely in our Brazos Valley counties again tomorrow afternoon and
evening. Afternoon highs tomorrow will be similar to today.
Langfeld
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 134 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025/
/Sunday Night and Beyond/
We will have another opportunity (20-30% chance) for MCS activity
and an associated damaging wind threat late Sunday night into
Monday morning across portions of North Texas before building mid-
level heights constrain low rain chances to our far eastern
counties early next week. Temperatures will rise into the mid 90s
region-wide by Tuesday-Wednesday. A shortwave digging across the
Central Plains midweek may drop a weak front toward North Texas
potentially increasing rain chances north of I-20 in the late
Wednesday-Thursday time frame. Confidence is increasing that the
upper-ridge axis will shift over the state of Texas late in the
work week essentially ending rain chances for a large portion of
our area, minus daily seabreeze activity in our far southeast.
Langfeld
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00z TAFs/
VFR and south winds will prevail this evening and tonight before
additional MVFR stratus spreads northward by daybreak Sunday.
This should result in brief cigs at Waco, but the potential for
low cigs at Metroplex airports remains too low to introduce to the
TAFs at this time. A convective complex is expected to organize
and move southward from Oklahoma tomorrow morning, and depending
on its trajectory it could impact D10 TAF sites sometime between
16-20z and Waco a couple of hours later. Its associated outflow
may also briefly result in north winds at the airports, and this
would be possible even if all convection dissipates prior to
spreading into the TAF sites. Have introduced a brief VCTS and
north wind shift with this TAF issuance, as recent midday short
term guidance continues to support this potential.
-Stalley
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 75 92 74 94 76 / 5 30 10 10 0
Waco 74 91 72 90 74 / 5 20 5 10 0
Paris 72 87 71 87 74 / 20 50 20 30 0
Denton 74 91 72 94 75 / 5 30 10 10 0
McKinney 74 91 72 92 75 / 10 30 10 20 0
Dallas 76 94 75 94 77 / 5 30 10 20 0
Terrell 73 89 72 89 74 / 10 30 10 20 0
Corsicana 74 91 74 89 75 / 5 30 10 20 0
Temple 74 93 72 92 74 / 20 20 5 10 0
Mineral Wells 74 94 72 96 74 / 5 20 5 10 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion