000
FXUS64 KFWD 142337
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
637 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...New Aviation, Short Term... 

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A complex of thunderstorms may push into parts of North Texas
  Sunday morning into early Sunday afternoon (30-40% chance). 

- Low rain chances (15-25%) continue into early next week with
  seasonably hot and humid conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
Midday short term guidance continues to depict a 30-40% chance for
a thunderstorm complex originating in northern Oklahoma overnight
to push southward into North Texas tomorrow morning. Its exact
trajectory and longevity remain uncertain, but areas near and east
of I-35 should be slightly favored for such a complex to advance
towards. While organized severe weather would be rather unlikely
as this complex decays the farther south it moves, it should be
capable of marginally severe wind gusts and likely some small hail
as well. In addition, convection will once again flare up across
parts of Southeast Texas early tomorrow afternoon, some of which
is likely to spill into our southeastern zones along consolidated
outflows. High temperatures for areas removed from influences of
convection will reach the low to mid 90s with some heat index
values up to 105, while the midday convective complex could hold 
a few areas in the mid/upper 80s if this solution materializes. 

-Stalley

Previous Discussion:
/Through Sunday/

A complex of strong to severe thunderstorms currently over Central
Oklahoma will shift east-southeast this afternoon potentially
swiping a few of our Red River counties, namely Grayson, Fannin,
and Lamar in 2-3 hours. Gusty winds and heavy rainfall will be 
possible in the stronger segments of the line. Scattered 
convection will also shift into our southeastern, Brazos Valley 
counties this afternoon and evening. The stronger cores will 
produce brief, heavy rainfall and lightning. Otherwise, expect a 
warm, humid afternoon with highs in the low to mid 90s and peak 
heat indices in the 98-105 degree range.

North and Central Texas will remain on the northeastern periphery
of a building mid-level ridge over West Texas and New Mexico
through the short-term forecast period. This will keep northerly
flow aloft and allow another thunderstorm complex to shift out of
Oklahoma toward our forecast area Sunday morning. High-resolution
guidance has come into larger agreement that this complex of
storms will push south of the I-20 corridor by midday Sunday
before dissipating during the afternoon. However, the ultimate 
track of this system will be determined by its origin, so 
confidence is still on the lower end regarding its placement. 
Widespread severe weather is not expected, but isolated 50+ mph 
wind gusts will be possible along the leading edge of this 
thunderstorm complex with the best chances for strong winds 
residing north of the I-20 corridor. Scattered convection is 
likely in our Brazos Valley counties again tomorrow afternoon and 
evening. Afternoon highs tomorrow will be similar to today.

Langfeld

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 134 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025/
/Sunday Night and Beyond/

We will have another opportunity (20-30% chance) for MCS activity
and an associated damaging wind threat late Sunday night into 
Monday morning across portions of North Texas before building mid-
level heights constrain low rain chances to our far eastern 
counties early next week. Temperatures will rise into the mid 90s 
region-wide by Tuesday-Wednesday. A shortwave digging across the 
Central Plains midweek may drop a weak front toward North Texas 
potentially increasing rain chances north of I-20 in the late 
Wednesday-Thursday time frame. Confidence is increasing that the 
upper-ridge axis will shift over the state of Texas late in the 
work week essentially ending rain chances for a large portion of 
our area, minus daily seabreeze activity in our far southeast. 

Langfeld

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00z TAFs/

VFR and south winds will prevail this evening and tonight before 
additional MVFR stratus spreads northward by daybreak Sunday. 
This should result in brief cigs at Waco, but the potential for 
low cigs at Metroplex airports remains too low to introduce to the
TAFs at this time. A convective complex is expected to organize 
and move southward from Oklahoma tomorrow morning, and depending 
on its trajectory it could impact D10 TAF sites sometime between 
16-20z and Waco a couple of hours later. Its associated outflow 
may also briefly result in north winds at the airports, and this 
would be possible even if all convection dissipates prior to 
spreading into the TAF sites. Have introduced a brief VCTS and 
north wind shift with this TAF issuance, as recent midday short 
term guidance continues to support this potential. 

-Stalley

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    75  92  74  94  76 /   5  30  10  10   0 
Waco                74  91  72  90  74 /   5  20   5  10   0 
Paris               72  87  71  87  74 /  20  50  20  30   0 
Denton              74  91  72  94  75 /   5  30  10  10   0 
McKinney            74  91  72  92  75 /  10  30  10  20   0 
Dallas              76  94  75  94  77 /   5  30  10  20   0 
Terrell             73  89  72  89  74 /  10  30  10  20   0 
Corsicana           74  91  74  89  75 /   5  30  10  20   0 
Temple              74  93  72  92  74 /  20  20   5  10   0 
Mineral Wells       74  94  72  96  74 /   5  20   5  10   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$