FXUS64 KFWD 030814
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
214 AM CST Sun Dec 3 2023
...New Long Term...
.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1134 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023/
Sunny, breezy, and warm today as deep cyclonic flow across the
Southern Plains translates to occasionally gusty westerly winds 10
to 20 mph by this afternoon. Plentiful sunshine/insolation will
coming with some compressional warming from higher terrain across
the Big Country for highs today to be 10 to 15 degrees above
normal (usually around 60 degrees). Highs temperatures will range
from the mid-upper 60s in the northeast zones to the lower 70s
across western North Texas into Central Texas.
In addition to the very warm temperatures for early December with
be the dry airmass from the aforementioned downslope flow with
afternoon RH values falling below 30 percent for all but our East
Texas areas. This will result in elevated fire weather conditions
for the majority of the area as much of grasses and small
vegetation near dormancy for the Winter. A Grass Fire Danger
statement will likely be needed for this afternoon.
Winds will subside and back south or southwesterly 10 mph or less
ahead of an expected cold front arriving around midnight tonight.
The cold front will be easily supported by another strong
shortwave diving southeast into the Ozarks and Ark-La-Tex region
within the strong cyclonic flow overhead. Gusty northerly winds 10
to 20 mph will occur several hours after the frontal passage
before settling down just before sunrise Monday. Despite the
nearly cloud-free skies and increasing low level cold advection,
elevated wind speeds and gusts overnight should help keep low
temperatures contained between the mid 30s and lower 40s.
Cold advection and brisk northwest winds 10 to 15 mph will
continue through midday, but wanes in the afternoon with a broad,
though not overly strong surface high building into the area from
the northwest. Despite the colder airmass, plentiful sunshine and
the dry airmass will still warm readily into the lower to mid 60s
with winds becoming variable around 5 mph by nightfall.
.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Monday Night and Beyond/
A rain-free forecast will prevail through at least the middle of
next week as a dry air mass remains anchored over North and
Central Texas. A quick-moving shortwave trough will shift out of
the Northern Great Plains into the Great Lakes region Monday night
into Tuesday pushing an additional weak front into North Texas
during the day Tuesday. Temperatures will rise into the mid to
upper 60s across much of the region Tuesday afternoon ahead of
slightly stronger cold advection slated to arrive later Tuesday
evening into Tuesday night. Expect widespread lows Tuesday night
in the mid 30s to low 40s, possibly approaching freezing near the
Red River, and slightly cooler afternoon highs on Wednesday in the
low to mid 60s.
By Wednesday night, surface high pressure will shift off to the
east and a warm/moist advective regime will re-establish across
North and Central Texas through the end of the work week. Expect
increasing cloud cover, afternoon highs in the low to upper 70s,
and surface dewpoints inching into the upper 50s to low 60s by
Thu-Fri of next week. Rain chances look to return to the forecast
area during the Saturday (Dec 9th)-Sunday (Dec 10th) time frame as
the next storm system and associated cold front enter the Plains.
The placement of the weekend cold front currently varies across a
roughly 24-hour time period amongst the most recent suite of
deterministic and ensemble guidance with the faster solutions
suggesting an early Saturday morning FROPA (~35% of EPS/GEFS/CMC
members) and the slower solutions suggesting an early Sunday
morning FROPA (~25% of EPS/GEFS/CMC members). With a good deal of
uncertainty on the timing of this frontal boundary, we will keep
PoPs at 20-40% across the area next weekend for now. A noticeable
difference in temperatures is expected behind the coming weekend's
frontal passage as well with a 70-80% chance that afternoon highs
remain below 60 degrees into the early portions of the following
.AVIATION... /Issued 1134 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023/
VFR with SW winds to 10 kts becoming W 10 to 15 kts with a few
gusts > 20 kts by 18z-20z.
Winds briefly will go SW less than 10 kts by 00z Monday before
FROPA arrives by 06z. NW winds 10 to 15 kts with higher gusts
expected post-FROPA through 12z Monday.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 71 40 62 40 66 / 0 0 0 0 0
Waco 72 39 63 40 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
Paris 64 37 58 36 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
Denton 69 35 61 35 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
McKinney 68 36 60 36 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dallas 70 42 62 40 66 / 0 0 0 0 0
Terrell 68 38 61 36 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 71 42 63 39 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
Temple 73 40 64 37 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 72 37 64 38 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion