000
FXUS64 KFWD 251058
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
558 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation... 

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:

No major adjustments on the forecast through tomorrow as timing
and areas of potential strong to sever storms remains static. 

05/Marty

Previous Discussion:
/End Of The Week/

The Southern Plains upper ridge remains entrenched across the 
forecast area through this evening, thus providing continued 
subsidence and maintaining the elevated mixed layer based at lower
levels. Another surge of morning low clouds will overtake most, 
if not all the entire region with extensive moisture above 500mb 
and high clouds this afternoon thanks to an impulse traversing the
ridge. This will keep any legitimate convection and rainfall 
deflected to the north and northeast of the area. Spotty morning 
sprinkles that may dot your windshield are certainly possible 
considering the moisture depth below the slow-rising elevated 
mixed layer (capping inversion. The multiple layers of 
moisture/clouds will also inhibit the better late April insolation
and keep highs contained in the upper 70s and lower 80s.

A tight pressure gradient and eventual mixing later this morning 
will result in breezy conditions as southerly winds increase to 
between 15 and 20 mph with gusts in excess of 30 mph. Very gusty 
southerly winds will continue into the overnight hours as surface 
temperatures only fall to between 65 and 70 degrees and help to 
keep the surface somewhat coupled with the LLJ.

A substantial shortwave disturbance is forecast to lift across 
the Central/Southern High Plans and western Oklahoma/Northwest 
Texas during the pre-dawn hours Friday. This will draw a Pacific 
cold front containing mP/mT airmass eastward into our Big Country 
counties on Friday. The right entrance region of a N to
S-oriented, 90-110 kt upper jet, with 70 kts lower at 500mb will
add increasing ageostrophic ascent to the already ongoing lift
from the mid level impulse and ongoing warm advection with very
moist and conditionally unstable lower levels available within the
broad warm sector. All these factors will easily overcome any 
residual elevated/weak cap with strong to severe storms rapidly 
initializing along the approaching cold front across Northwest 
Texas into the South Plains overnight. Very steep mid level lapse 
rates > 8 deg C/km and MLCAPE of 2000 J/KG+ will juxtapose with 
with westerly 40-50 kt effective shear for all modes of severe 
weather, including tornadoes during the discrete stages mostly 
west/northwest of the forecast area. Afterward, large hail and 
damaging winds are the primary impacts as the convective system 
becomes more linear. The eventual evolution linear mode along the 
front will definitely wake a few folks up Friday morning. Despite 
the more linear storm mode, a few supercells embedded within the 
line will pose localized tornado threat. 

The Pacific cold front stalls along or just west of the Hwy 281 
corridor later Friday morning, as it loses upper support with the
initial and strong shortwave. This will result in a gradual 
weakening trends and lowering severe threat with any convection 
that maintains eastward past I-35 and into the midday and early 
afternoon hours. Hail, gusty outflow winds, and locally heavy
rainfall and minor flooding will still be problematic into early
Friday afternoon. Earlier clearing will bring steamy and humid 
conditions Friday afternoon across the areas along and west of 
US-281 with highs 85 to 90 degrees, while the clouds, rain, and 
storms linger longer further east with much of Central and East 
Texas only warming into the mid-upper 70s with continued gusty 
southerly winds. 

05/Marty

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 404 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024/
/Friday Night Onward/

Weather Headlines:

- Severe thunderstorm chance will continue Saturday and Sunday. 
  Large hail, damaging winds and a tornado or two will be 
  possible. 

- There will be a risk of flash flooding Saturday night mainly
  along the Red River. The threat shifts into East Texas on Sunday

- Windy conditions are expected Saturday afternoon with gusts
  approaching 45 mph in some locations. A Wind Advisory appears
  likely.

- Not everyone will see thunderstorms this weekend. Southeast 
  Texas may see the lowest thunderstorm coverage. 

With the mid-week ridge moving out and troughing setting up 
across the western CONUS, North and Central Texas is in store for 
an active weekend with multiple rounds of storms expected. The key
players this weekend will be timing the individual impulses and 
placement of a meandering front/dryline that will set up across 
North and Central Texas. 

Strong southerly flow will commence on Friday as strong lee 
cyclogenesis takes place while high pressure strengthens across 
the mid-Atlantic coastline. This will effectively funnel a decent 
amount of moisture north/northeastward from Texas into the Great 
Lakes. 

As the main upper trough inches closer to our region, we'll see 
increasing rain chances starting Friday night. The boundary 
overnight will likely be west of our region, however, given the 
unstable environment, a few showers or isolated storms will be 
possible primarily west and northwest of the Dallas/Fort Worth 
Metroplex. A stout capping inversion is likely to preclude severe 
weather, however, a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out closer
to sunrise Saturday. 

Any morning rain will have the potential to impact afternoon 
storm chances. If morning convection remains at a minimum, there 
will be largely untapped warm sector for severe thunderstorms to 
develop. The environment atop North and Central Texas will be 
characterized by 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE as lapse rates steepen 
to ~8C/km. With the low-level jet expected to strengthen, there
may be an increasing risk for supercell development capable of 
producing a tornado or two. The exact area of heightened threat
remains uncertain at this time given the uncertainty in morning
rain and placement of the front.

As we approach Saturday night, increasing moisture transport into
our region coupled with enhanced upper level forcing for ascent 
will lead to a heavy rain potential across North Texas. The 
highest threat will be along the immediate Red River Valley, where
training of thunderstorms is looking most likely. Unidirectional 
flow parallel to a stalled/slow moving front may lead to 3+ inches
of rain in a short amount of time. The highest amounts are likely
to remain in Oklahoma, however, we'll need to monitor trends for 
any potential southward shift in the heaviest expected rainfall 
amounts. 

The front will make slow eastward progress through the day on 
Sunday with a continued heavy rain threat. The risk for flooding 
will shift into East Texas as slightly dryer air overspreads areas
along and west of I-35. The severe weather threat will also 
continue on Sunday, generally east of I-35. MLCAPE of nearly 2000 
J/kg will continue, however, a slight weakness in the low-level 
winds will decrease the effective shear. Nonetheless, this could 
make for a messy set-up with a few storms posing a large hail and 
damaging wind threat. 

The main upper trough will be atop our region of Monday, keeping 
precipitation storm chances going through the day. Plenty of 
instability will be at play with a continued threat for some 
strong to severe thunderstorms. Thermodynamic environment will 
remain favorable for large hail and damaging winds. 
Timing/location will depend on the placement of the stalled front,
therefore, expect more clarity in the coming days. 

Weak ridging aloft will move overhead Tuesday into Wednesday, 
leading to temporary reprieve from the daily storm chances. 
Unfortunately, the next system will be arriving on Thursday with 
rain chances coming back into the forecast to finish out next work
week. 


Hernandez

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
Update:
/12z TAFs/

Just minor timing tweaks for MVFR cigs, as these are already
encroaching on the I-20 corridor and D10 DFW airports with Waco
Regional already in high MVFR. It appears IFR is less likely for
all airports, so will be removing that from Waco later this
morning. Cigs rise into low VFR briefly by 00z Friday with MVFR
cigs returning before midnight Friday. 

05/Marty

Previous Discussion:
/06z TAFs/

Challenges remain similar to Wednesday. Gauging both speed and
gusts with southerly winds which should be increasing after 12z
this morning. No doubt we'll get MVFR across the D10 and DFW
airports, it's the timing that still differs amongst high-res
models. The GLAMP/GFS remains the most aggressive on bringing MVFR
into the D10 airports by 10z, while the NAM is 12z, and the
RAP/HRRR delay arrival until close to mid morning. 

I will take the "middle road" timing here and lean toward the NAM
with high MVFR cigs arriving across the DFW Metro at 12z, with a
fall into low MVFR by mid morning. Waco Regional Airport should 
see an arrival 1-2 hours earlier, along with a window of IFR cigs 
occurring through late morning. Warmer surface temperatures here 
across DFW should keep cigs out of IFR, though AFW/FTW/GKY 
will be on the fence for a 1-2 hour TEMPO group around mid morning.

Cigs rise into high MVFR (=> 2 kft) during the early afternoon 
hours, then into low VFR for a few hours either side of 00z 
Friday. As the 925mb LLJ cranks up after 03z Friday, cigs will
likely thicken and fall into low MVFR just before midnight. S winds
will continue AoB 10 kts through sunrise before increasing to between
15-20 kts with gusts to 30 kts mid-late morning and through this
coming evening. 

05/Marty

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    80  70  81  70  82 /   5  60  80  10  50 
Waco                81  69  79  69  82 /  10  20  70  10  20 
Paris               79  68  75  67  82 /  20  30  90  30  50 
Denton              78  68  82  68  81 /  10  60  70   5  60 
McKinney            78  68  80  69  82 /  10  50  80  10  50 
Dallas              80  70  81  69  83 /   5  50  80  10  50 
Terrell             79  69  78  69  83 /   5  30  90  20  40 
Corsicana           81  70  79  71  84 /   5  20  70  20  20 
Temple              81  69  78  69  83 /  10  10  60  10  20 
Mineral Wells       80  67  85  68  81 /  10  80  50   5  60 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$