000
FXUS64 KFWD 270822
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
322 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024

...New Long Term... 

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1152 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024/
/Through Saturday Night/

The weak upper trough responsible for the relatively cool and
unsettled weather we have been experiencing for the past week or
so will hang on one more day before it lifts to the northeast on 
Sunday. Abundant moisture below 700 mb will keep plenty of clouds 
around through Saturday with morning stratus and afternoon Cu. 
Much like the past few days, there should be enough moisture and 
lift for a few showers and storms to develop. The best chances 
will be across the eastern zones during the afternoon and evening 
when surface heating helps with destabilization, but a stray 
shower or storm could PoP up just about anywhere and and at any 
time. The good news is that limited instability and weak flow 
aloft will keep all storms well below severe limits.

Temperatures tonight and Saturday will remain below normal with 
lows from the upper 60s to the middle 70s and highs in the 80s to
the mid 90s. Temperatures will begin to creep upwards beginning
Saturday night with all locations staying at or above 70 degrees.

79

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Sunday Onward/

After one more day with rain chances and cooler temperatures to 
finish out the weekend, a more typical summer-like pattern of hot
and dry weather will prevail the rest of the week. Afternoon highs
will transition from near/slightly below normal to as much 5 to 
10 degrees above normal for locations across North Texas through
the work week.

North and Central Texas will remain under some influence of an upper 
level trough for one more day as it gradually departs to the 
northeast and becomes an open wave. Southerly onshore flow will 
continue to advect and abundance of Gulf moisture into Central and 
East Texas; however, the main axis of 2"+ PWAT values will remain 
closer to the coast. Weak lift and ample moisture will support the 
chance of showers and storms (20-40%) once again, with lightning 
and brief heavy rainfall remaining the primary threats due to weak
flow aloft. Although higher heights will be nudging in from the 
west Sunday, it will still be near or below normal for much of the
area temperature wise, with highs generally in the upper 80s to 
mid 90s. 

Monday marks the true arrival of a more stagnant pattern, thanks 
to ridging aloft gradually becoming centered over the forecast 
area. Resultant subsidence will promote a warming trend, with 
highs in the mid 90s (Central TX) and upper 90s (North TX) Monday
afternoon turning to highs in the upper 90s (Central TX) and 
widespread triple digits (North TX) by Thursday. Locations 
generally north of I-20 and west of U.S. 281 across the Big 
Country are the most likely to exceed 105 degrees, with a 30-50% 
chance both Thursday and Friday. Heat indices will be a few 
degrees higher each day, increasing the risk for heat-related 
illnesses, and also likely necessitating heat headlines in some 
fashion. While this isn't a record breaking heat wave by any 
means, the recent stretch of below normal temperatures will 
exacerbate the effects of the upcoming heat, especially for those 
expected to experience multiple 100+ degree days this week. 
Remember to know your limits outdoors, take plenty of breaks, and 
stay hydrated.

Gordon

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1152 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024/
/06Z TAFs/

Patchy stratus, currently across East Texas, will work westward 
toward the I-35 corridor overnight. MVFR to high end IFR ceilings 
are expected all TAF sites overnight. Ceilings will gradually lift
during the morning hours Saturday, becoming VFR by afternoon.

A few showers and storms will be possible, especially during the 
heat of the day, but the best moisture and lift will reside to 
the east and southeast of the TAF sites.

A southeast to south wind will continue in the 6 to 12 knot range
along with a few higher daytime gusts.

79

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    90  74  93  77  98 /  10   0   5   0   0 
Waco                88  72  91  75  96 /  20   0  20   0   0 
Paris               86  71  91  75  94 /  40   5  20   0   0 
Denton              92  72  95  76  99 /  10   5   5   0   0 
McKinney            90  73  93  76  98 /  20   0  10   0   0 
Dallas              90  74  94  77  98 /  20   0  10   0   0 
Terrell             88  72  91  75  95 /  30   5  20   0   0 
Corsicana           88  74  92  76  96 /  30   5  20   0   0 
Temple              88  72  91  74  95 /  20   5  20   0   0 
Mineral Wells       94  72  96  75 100 /   5   0   0   0   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$