000
FXUS64 KFWD 082317
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
617 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025

...New Short Term, Aviation... 

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a low chance (30-40%) for showers and thunderstorms 
  Friday afternoon.

- Dry and hot weather returns next week, with highs in the 90s
  expected next Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Thursday Evening through Friday Night/

...Thursday Evening into Thursday Night...

Quiet weather will continue this evening into tonight, with low
chances for light rain (less than 20%) for portions of central
Texas. Low temperatures tonight should drop into the upper 50s and
low 60s.

...Friday and Friday Night...

The primary upper-level disturbance will move more fully over our
area by tomorrow, as the vort max slowly drifts to the southeast
out of the central Great Plains. Minimal capping, and weak
instability (MUCAPE 500-1000 J/kg) will result in widely scattered
(30 to 40% chance of rain) pop-up showers and isolated (20%)
thunderstorms Friday afternoon. The greatest rain chances will be
east of the I-35/35E corridor where there is more low-level moisture.
No severe storms are expected at this time. Convection will 
rapidly dissipate after sunset, with clear skies and lows in the 
50s expected Friday night.

Darrah

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 153 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025/
/Saturday through Next Thursday/

The main highlight of the long-term forecast continues to be the 
warming trend next week. Recent guidance remains in good 
agreement keeping the rain chances outside of our area on 
Saturday. After a wet start of the month, a period of dry weather
will prevail through next Thursday as a mid-level ridge dominates
the pattern. 

Saturday-Monday: Our area will remain in the vicinity of a cutoff
low over Louisiana keeping us precipitation free with light 
northerly winds. We will enjoy a few more nice spring-like days 
as temperatures stay in the 70s each afternoon with overnight 
lows in the 50s.

A pattern shift will take place next week resulting in a warming 
trend across the region. The combination of south winds near the 
surface and ridging aloft will allow temperatures to climb into 
the upper 80s to mid 90s by Wednesday.

From the previous discussion:

If the current forecast verifies, both DFW and Waco could be 
flirting with record high temperatures on Wednesday. For 
reference, here are the record high temperatures for May 14th:

DFW:  95 F set in 1955 (current forecast high is 94 F) 
Waco: 96 F set in 1925 (current forecast high is 95 F)

Sanchez

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z Friday through 12Z Saturday/

A scattered deck of MVFR cigs (SCT020-030) will develop across
portions of northeast TX (including DFW TAF sites) between 14Z and
18Z. There is not a strong signal for BKN/OVC MVFR, but could see
occasional obs of this in the above time period. Will keep out of
TAFs for now. Otherwise, widely scattered (30-40%) popcorn rain 
showers will develop b/w 18Z Fri and 00Z Sat. Thunderstorm 
coverage (20%) is too low to include in TAFs, but there still may
be enough instability for a weak thunderstorm or two to develop. 
The greatest shower/storm coverage will be for portions of 
northeast TX (including the DFW TAF sites). 

Darrah

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    60  73  58  77  55 /   0  30  20   5   0 
Waco                60  75  58  77  55 /  10  20  20   5   0 
Paris               58  73  55  75  52 /   0  40  20   5   0 
Denton              58  72  54  76  50 /   0  30  20   0   0 
McKinney            59  73  56  76  52 /   0  40  20   0   0 
Dallas              60  74  58  77  56 /   0  40  30   5   0 
Terrell             60  72  57  76  52 /   0  40  30   5   0 
Corsicana           61  74  60  77  55 /  10  30  30   5   0 
Temple              60  76  58  79  54 /  20  20  20  10   0 
Mineral Wells       57  73  55  77  51 /   0  20  20   5   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$