000
FXUS64 KFWD 310611
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
111 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation... 

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will periodically impact the
  area the rest of the Labor Day weekend.
 
- Severe weather is unlikely, but those with outdoor plans should
  stay aware for the potential of heavy rainfall, localized 
  flooding, gusty winds, and frequent lightning. 

- Following cooler temperatures over the weekend, highs will 
  return to the 80s and lower 90s next week.
 
&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Tonight/

The Central Texas quasi-stationary surface frontal boundary that 
has delivered showers and thunderstorms to the area the past 
couple of days continues to become increasingly diffuse, with 
little remaining thermodynamic contrast. However, in the presence
of weak low-level convergence and additional upstream ripples 
within northwest flow aloft, a favorable setup for convective 
development will exist again today, especially this morning 
through parts of Central Texas in closer proximity to the residual
boundary. Expect numerous showers and storms to develop around 
and after daybreak mainly south of I-20, with coverage much more 
isolated farther to the north. Heavy rain and flooding will be 
the main concern, with some isolated amounts of 2-4" possible, but
instances of flooding should remain too isolated to warrant any
formal Watch product at this time. While the greatest coverage is
forecast through the first half of the day, additional isolated 
showers and storms are possible anywhere within the forecast area 
during the afternoon and early evening which will be aided by 
diurnal destabilization and ascent resulting from height falls 
ahead of a stronger Central Plains shortwave. With ample cloud 
cover present across most of the area, highs should be held to the
low/mid 80s for much of the CWA this afternoon. Expect a relative
minimum in convective activity through the late evening and 
overnight period before additional showers and storms develop 
heading into Monday morning as the main mid-level vort max 
impinges on North Texas.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Monday Onward/

Chances for scattered showers and storms will continue into Labor
Day, although rain coverage is expected to be lower than the
previous couple of days with many areas likely to stay dry to end
the holiday weekend. Convective development will be disorganized
and due to a combination of a return to southeast low-level flow 
and warm advection, as well as modest height falls from a strong 
Central Plains and Midwest shortwave trough. PoPs of 20-40% will 
be advertised through most of the daytime before rain chances come
to an end Monday evening following an eventual eastward shift of 
the upper trough axis. A trailing cold front will arrive Monday 
night into Tuesday with minimal rain chances along the boundary 
itself. However, this feature will usher in slightly cooler air 
along with lower dewpoints which will result in a fairly pleasant 
and less humid midweek period with highs in the 80s and lower 90s.

An anomalously strong trough will take shape across the eastern
CONUS during the second half of the week, with northwest flow 
aloft prevailing locally. This regime will send an additional 
front or two towards the forecast area during the late week 
period, but high temperatures are likely to rebound into the 90s 
prior to their arrival. This could be especially true on Friday 
afternoon in the presence of compressional warming due to veering
westerly winds ahead of a cold front. This pattern could also 
send one or more decaying convective complexes into the forecast 
area from Kansas/Oklahoma on Thursday, Friday, or Saturday, and 
low PoPs will be included in the forecast each day for this 
uncertain potential.

-Stalley

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06z TAFs/

Low stratus is beginning to build towards the TAF sites from the
east as of 06z, with low MVFR/IFR cigs expected to prevail from
the predawn hours into the morning at all airports. Convective
development is expected to occur after ~11z this morning 
primarily near or south of the D10 TAF sites. Will retain a few 
hours of VCTS at DFW area airports, although it is possible that 
all thunderstorm activity remains displaced from the terminals 
this morning. Waco is more likely to be impacted by nearby 
showers and thunderstorms, perhaps for a span of several hours, 
before activity moves off to the southeast in the afternoon. 
Additional isolated development of showers and storms could occur 
in parts of North Texas during the afternoon and evening, and 
will include a brief window of VCSH to highlight this potential. 
Following a steady lifting/scattering of cigs to VFR this 
afternoon, VFR should prevail through the remainder of the period 
with BKN/OVC mid/high cloud cover present into Monday morning. 
Winds will remain fairly light at 4-8 kts, and will periodically 
fluctuate from ENE to SE. 

-Stalley

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    73  84  71  88  71 /  40  50  40  20   5 
Waco                73  83  71  90  69 /  60  80  50  40   5 
Paris               71  84  69  85  67 /  40  40  20  20  10 
Denton              70  84  69  87  67 /  40  50  30  30   5 
McKinney            71  83  69  87  67 /  50  50  30  20   5 
Dallas              73  85  73  89  72 /  40  50  40  20   5 
Terrell             71  83  70  89  68 /  50  60  30  20   5 
Corsicana           73  84  72  88  69 /  50  70  40  30   5 
Temple              73  84  69  88  69 /  50  80  50  50   5 
Mineral Wells       71  86  69  88  67 /  50  60  30  30   5 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$