000
FXUS64 KFWD 082330
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
630 PM CDT Sun Sep 8 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation... 

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Tonight through Monday Night/

The nice weather will continue for the next 36 hours with clear
skies and cool conditions expected tonight. Most areas will drop
into the low to mid 50s with light winds. Sunny skies are expected
on Monday as temperatures notch up a degree or two with light
winds continuing. The developing tropical system in the western
Gulf looks to remain far enough east of our area for any
meaningful impacts. Deeper tropical moisture will slowly spread
northwest with time, but higher dewpoints will remain confined to
southeast Texas through Monday night. 

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 224 PM CDT Sun Sep 8 2024/
/Monday Night Onward/
 
We'll continue to see a gradual uptick in temperatures through 
the first half of the new week in response to upper level ridging 
atop the region. Expect afternoon highs on Tuesday to peak in the 
mid 80s to low 90s, with lower dewpoints in the 40s allowing for 
pleasant outdoor conditions. Unfortunately, humidity will be on 
the incline mid-late week as moisture advection ramps up in 
response to a more active Gulf of Mexico. 

A tropical wave is currently splayed across the Bay of Campeche, 
and is progged to organize into a tropical storm as it skirts 
along the Coastal Bend and eastern Texas coastline in the coming 
days. As this tropical low moves along the coast, abundant 
moisture in the form of 60/70 degree dewpoints and > 1.5" PWATs 
will be ushered across the region by Wednesday. Additionally, an 
upper shortwave disturbance will move across Texas Tuesday- 
Wednesday, and in concert with the tropical low to our south, will
provide enough lift for returning scattered showers and storms 
over midweek. Model track spaghetti plots show a more easterly 
track into Louisiana, which will keep best moisture and highest 
rain chances to our east and southeast. However, deterministic and
ensemble guidance diverge somewhat on the location of the 
tropical low and accompanying rainfall. Nonetheless, the southeast
half of our CWA boundary will have a chance to see wetting 
rainfall over early-mid week. Our far southeastern zones will 
observe higher precipitation totals, with most likely totals 
between 0.50-1". However, there is a 10% chance of isolated higher
amounts of up to 3-4" during this time. Temperatures will remain 
in the 80s and low 90s, though increased cloud cover across the 
southeast will keep temperatures in the lower 80s in the far 
southeast on Wednesday.

The tropical low will eventually move off to our east/northeast 
late this week, with mid-level ridging building in behind it. The
gradual warm up of temperatures will resume, pushing highs into 
the 90s and lows into the 60s/70s by next weekend. Low afternoon 
rain chances have made their way into the forecast for next 
weekend as minor shortwave disturbances move along the ridge, but 
this will be covered in better detail as the forecast evolves.

Prater

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

VFR will prevail through the period with northeast winds 5 to 
10 kt. Some variability in direction is expected overnight with
more of a southerly component toward sunrise. Wind dirs should
generally be between 060-100 through the period. No significant
aviation concerns expected through Monday night.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    59  85  61  88  70 /   0   0   0   0   5 
Waco                54  85  57  90  69 /   0   0   0   5  10 
Paris               52  84  55  90  67 /   0   0   0   0   5 
Denton              54  85  56  89  65 /   0   0   0   0   0 
McKinney            54  86  56  90  67 /   0   0   0   0   5 
Dallas              58  86  61  90  70 /   0   0   0   0   5 
Terrell             53  86  57  90  68 /   0   0   0   0   5 
Corsicana           55  86  59  91  71 /   0   0   0   5  10 
Temple              55  86  58  90  68 /   0   0   0   5  10 
Mineral Wells       55  85  55  88  63 /   0   0   0   0   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$