000
FXUS64 KFWD 171124
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
524 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire weather conditions are forecast across all of 
  North and Central Texas today due to breezy north winds and very
  low humidity.

- A few sprinkles or snow flurries could be observed in parts of
  North Texas during the daytime today.

- Seasonably cold temperatures are expected through early next 
  week, with rain chances of 20-30% returning to much of the area 
  on Wednesday and Thursday along with more mild temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight) 
Issued at 1148 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Cold/dry advection continues early this morning behind our strong
cold front that swept through the area yesterday. Surface
dewpoints have fallen into the teens and single digits, and
efficient radiational cooling will allow much of the area to 
begin the morning with subfreezing low temperatures. North winds 
of 10-15 mph will also remain in place through the morning, and 
this will yield wind chill values in the teens and lower 20s for 
most of the CWA. 

After sunrise, the primary trough axis associated with the
dominant Central Plains low pressure system will pivot overhead, 
resulting in strong mid-level ascent and a band of frontogenetical
forcing across North Texas. At a minimum, this will result in a 
rapidly expanding cloud deck which will remain in place for a 
majority of the daytime. While the subcloud airmass will be quite 
dry with dewpoint depressions of as much as 30-35C, model guidance
does depict wet-bulbing and top-down saturation sufficient to 
lower cloud bases to as low as 4-5 kft AGL by mid-morning. With 
such strong ascent present, some light precipitation should begin 
falling, initially as virga, but could possibly reach the surface 
as either melting snow grains or fine sleet pellets across parts 
of North Texas where surface temperatures will be in the upper 30s
to around 40 degrees. We'll include a mention of sprinkles and 
flurries in the public forecast for areas roughly along and north
of I-20 from this morning through mid-afternoon. However, since 
none of this precipitation will be measurable, PoPs will remain 
less than 10%. 

This afternoon, the focus will shift to fire weather concerns as
temperatures reach the 40s to lower 50s while breezy north winds
and very low humidity continue. Fire weather conditions will 
become elevated, but the seasonably cold temperatures will 
prevent the threat from becoming critical, and this will be 
addressed with an area-wide Grass Fire Danger Statement. 

Tonight's lows will be some of the coldest of the season thus far
with widespread readings in the 20s, and a smattering of lows in 
the teens in North Texas. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Friday) 
Issued at 1148 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

As low-level flow returns to southerly on Sunday, a quick warmup
will occur with very dry air warming into the upper 50s and 60s
beneath sunny skies. These more mild temperatures will be short-
lived however, as a reinforcing cold front sags into the area on
Monday. This will shave 5-10 degrees off of high temperatures both
Monday and Tuesday afternoon while also inhibiting any significant
moisture return from occurring. Low-level southerly flow will
strengthen again heading into the midweek period with widespread
low stratus and some rain showers returning both Wednesday and 
Thursday. PoPs will be highest across East Texas, while parts of 
western North Texas and the Big Country are likely to remain dry. 
Additional cold frontal intrusions are expected during the second 
half of the week, and perhaps again next weekend during the Day 
8-9 time period when ensemble guidance depicts greater chances for
rainfall. Highs should remain close to seasonal normals through  
the extended forecast period, with highs mostly in the 50s/lower 
60s and lows in the 30s/40s. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 510 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

A mid-level cloud deck at 8-10 kft is rapidly expanding across 
North Texas as of 11z, with BKN/OVC skies expected to prevail 
through most of the daytime. A few sprinkles may fall from this 
cloud deck late this morning, but the likelihood of this occurring
at the airports is far too low to include precipitation in the 
TAFs. Breezy north winds of 10-15 kts and gusts up to 25 kts can 
be expected through most of the daytime before subsiding this 
evening. Winds will return to WSW on Sunday morning, and this will
be indicated in the extended portion of the DFW TAF. 

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    46  26  60  33 /  10   0   0   0 
Waco                50  22  60  32 /   0   0   0   0 
Paris               44  19  53  28 /  10   0   0   0 
Denton              46  21  60  26 /  10   0   0   0 
McKinney            46  21  58  29 /  10   0   0   0 
Dallas              46  27  60  34 /  10   0   0   0 
Terrell             46  20  58  29 /  10   0   0   0 
Corsicana           50  25  61  33 /  10   0   0   0 
Temple              52  25  61  30 /   0   0   0   0 
Mineral Wells       47  22  63  28 /  10   0   0   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Stalley
LONG TERM....Stalley
AVIATION...Stalley