A Major Pattern Shift Brings Strong Arctic Air to North Texas This Weekend
Confidence has increased significantly over the past 48 hours that a strong Arctic airmass will surge into North Texas late this week, bringing the coldest temperatures of the season and the potential for a significant winter storm. While important details are still being refined, the overall pattern is now well‑established across all major global models and their ensemble systems.
Teleconnections and the Large‑Scale Pattern Support a Significant Cold Outbreak
This event has been telegraphed for several days by the broader hemispheric pattern. Multiple teleconnection indices have aligned in a way that historically favors strong cold outbreaks in Texas:
- Negative AO opening the Arctic gate
- Negative EPO/WPO building a cold reservoir over Alaska and western Canada
- Positive PNA supporting a western ridge and downstream troughing
- MJO in phases 7–8, a cold‑favoring configuration for North America
In addition, the polar vortex has been displaced southward, with a lobe dropping toward Hudson Bay. This displacement enhances high‑latitude blocking and promotes southward transport of dense Arctic air.
At 500 mb, guidance shows a high‑amplitude ridge over Alaska and a broad trough digging into the central U.S. — a textbook setup for delivering Arctic air deep into Texas.
Arctic Air Is a High‑Confidence Outcome
Multiple ensemble systems now show a strong cold cluster for this weekend:
- Canadian and GEFS ensemble means
- ECMWF ensemble mean
- ECMWF deterministic
- ECMWF control
- UKMET deterministic
When both the deterministic and control runs of the ECMWF are in the teens, and the Canadian/GEFS means are even colder, it strongly suggests the ensemble mean is too warm.
Bottom line: Teens are a reasonable baseline for much of North Texas this weekend, with single digits not off the table, especially if we get snow/ice.
A Non‑Zero Threat of Severe Cold
In North Texas, severe cold is typically defined as temperatures of 10°F or lower, which is the threshold at which the National Weather Service may issue an Extreme Cold Warning.
Given:
- The strength of the incoming Arctic airmass
- The cold clustering across all ensemble systems
- Deterministic guidance already in the 10–15°F range
- The potential for ice or sleet cover enhancing radiational cooling
There is a credible, though not guaranteed, threat of severe cold in parts of North Texas this weekend. This risk is highest in rural and low‑lying areas north and west of the Metroplex, especially if skies clear Saturday night into Sunday morning.
This is not a forecast of single digits — but the pattern strongly supports the possibility, and it deserves to be monitored closely, particularly if we get snow/ice.
Wintry Precipitation: Not Guaranteed, But Credibly on the Table
A disturbance near the Baja region is expected to move eastward, providing lift and moisture over the shallow Arctic dome. This is the classic overrunning setup that has produced past ice and sleet events in North Texas.
At this range, confidence in exact amounts or precipitation type is still limited. However, the pattern strongly supports at least the possibility of freezing rain or sleet somewhere in the region from Friday into the weekend with the potential for significant accumulations.
Even light ice or sleet accumulation would increase the likelihood of very cold temperatures afterward, as surface ice cover enhances radiational cooling.
Final Thoughts
The signal for a strong Arctic intrusion is now clear and well‑supported by both the teleconnections and the model guidance. The wintry precipitation threat is credible and deserves close monitoring, and there is also a non‑zero threat of severe cold if the cold dome deepens and surface conditions favor radiational cooling. Expect continued refinement as we get closer to the weekend.