Category Archives: Forecast Blog

DFW RAINFALL AMOUNT TOTALS AND THANKSGIVING WEEK OVERVIEW

The storm system that brought much needed rainfall to DFW has pushed over to the northeast. In its wake, skies were clear with some patchy fog in some locations which should quickly burn off this morning. Rainfall totals were less than what we forecasted as the system took a much further south track than we thought. However, we did get much needed rainfall across the area, but not everyone saw over an inch of rain as we had hoped with our western and southern counties seeing the most precipitation. Please see the pic for a radar estimate of storm totals.

Radar estimate of rainfall totals over the last 24 hours. Courtesy of Accuweather.

Radar estimate of rainfall totals over the last 24 hours. Courtesy of Accuweather.

Another deepening storm system in Colorado will tighten the pressure gradient causing our winds to pick up out of the west today and become quite gusty out ahead of a cold front. High temperatures are going to be very tricky today as compression warming from the front and westerly component to the wind will support a substantial warm-up in the upper 70s. However, the ground is still very wet and will help to offset the warming a bit. Therefore, the official DFW Weather forecast went with the cooler guidance number for highs today in the middle 70s.

The cold front will bring temperatures down a good 15 degrees tomorrow with more seasonable weather. This will setup a beautiful Thanksgiving week for North Texas with seasonal weather. Computer model guidance is showing temperatures rebounding well into the 70s for the Thanksgiving weekend. Last week, it looked like we were going to get another surge of Arctic air, but over the weekend, the models back off this scenario. While here at DFW Weather, we are going for the warmer weather scenario for the official forecast, this forecaster will caution that Arctic air is damming up on the models in Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. In this type of situation, usually the cold air wins out, and we do get a some sort of frontal passage. This is due, in part, to the fact that cold air is very dense and tends to sink south against the mean flow, and to the fact that models have a hard time in general with placement of shallow/dense-low level cold air. This is something to definitely watch, and the forecast could change drastically next weekend.

LATEST FORECASTED RAIN TOTALS FOR DFW THROUGH SUNDAY

Our big storm system is on its way. The system is now onshore over California and will be moving over North Texas tomorrow. This continues to look like a widespread, mult-inch rain event for the DFW area. 2 plus inches of rain is possible, especially from the DFW Metroplex north and west toward the Red River counties with isolated amounts up to 4 inches in some of the heavier downpours. The data continues to suggest the severe weather threat will remain well south and east of the Metroplex; although, it is still possible that one or two strong storms cannot be entirely ruled out in our area.

Weather Prediction Service of expected rainfall totals across the Sate. Data courtesy of WeatherBell.

Weather Prediction Center of expected rainfall totals across the Sate. Data courtesy of WeatherBell.

The biggest concern will be the potential for heavy rainfall in our area as pWATS (precipitable water) levels increase to 1.50 inches. Well above normal for this time of year. We are still in extreme drought conditions, thus runoff will be absorbed well by area lakes and area soils very dry. Therefore, widespread flooding is not a concern, though localized, urban flash-flooding will be possible.