A very strong Arctic cold front will move into Texas on Wednesday setting the stage for a winter storm Wednesday night into Thursday. Given the shallow nature of this Arctic airmass, we will likely be dealing with more ice than snow this time.

Early assessment of potential accumulations for the area (and these could be subject to change with the latest data) is that the Metroplex could see 0.10 to 0.25 of an inch of ice accretion followed by 0.5 to 1.5 inches of sleet accumulations with trace amounts of snow. These amounts would warrant a Winter Storm Watch/Warning. Keep in mind that these amounts rely heavily on expected precipitation type transitions. If temperatures drop below freezing quicker than currently forecast, these amounts could increase. If the subfreezing air is delayed, these amounts could be lower. Most of the Metroplex would not have to worry about frozen precipiation until around midnight Thursday morning, as it currently stands right now. With expected temperature forecasts, these amounts of ice/sleet would cause signficant disruptions to travel on all roadways. Expect travel difficulties into Friday, and perahaps Saturday for some, especially if accumulations are more than forecast.

This event is still several days out and things could still change. Please keep checking back for updates.

How cold will it get? To be clear, not as cold as last February (thankfully). However, guidance has trended a bit warmer this morning than it has been over the last several days. We do feel confident that Friday and Saturday mornings will be well down in the teens. Wind chill values will be in the single digits above and below zero at times.