FXUS64 KFWD 271135

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
535 AM CST Thu Jan 27 2022

...New Short Term, Aviation...


The main adjustment to the forecast this morning was to the
current and diurnal temperature trends. The precip last night
resulted in a top-down moistening and cooling that has since
translated down to the surface at locations where a couple hours
of precip was observed. This is most notable over the northwest
parts of the forecast area where temps are in the low 30s. In
other spots, widely scattered breaks in the clouds have developed
and allowed temperatures to plummet underneath these breaks. These
cloud breaks are creating somewhat erratic temperature gradients
across North Texas & the Metroplex--it`s 39 degrees in Burleson
and 30 in Arlington. Thankfully, these temperature variations will
cause little to no impact to the sensible weather today.

Expect mostly cloudy skies with occasional breaks in the clouds to
continue through the day. This will result in another cool day
with highs in the 40s/50s. A cold front will move through this
evening, bringing gusty north winds and clearing skies by the time
Friday morning rolls around.


Previous Discussion:
/Today and Tonight/

The robust shortwave trough is currently moving through North
Texas, developing scattered rain/snow showers with some sleet
pellets thrown into the mix. In fact, most of the reports we have
received tonight have been sleet. This system will continue to
move east over the next couple hours, exiting the forecast area by
around 2-3 AM. Since the precip is falling into very dry air, most
is evaporating/sublimating before reaching the surface, which also
explains why sleet is the predominate report since ice pellets
have a faster terminal velocity and are less susceptible to
melting and sublimation. Only two airports have reported
measurable precip this evening so as the system fills and ejects
east, measurable precip and winter precip accumulation is not
expected. Outside of the precip, a cold and cloudy night is
forecast for all of North and Central Texas.

The lack of any front to scour the newly advected cloud cover will
result in a cool and cloudy day today. The morning will start
overcast, but there will likely be some breaks in the cloud cover
and peaks of sunshine later in the day. Winds will be near calm
early in the day before becoming light out of the west-northwest
by the afternoon. Normally, this would result in compressional
warming and warmer temperatures, but light wind speeds and cloud
cover will keep temperatures from rising much higher than about 50
degrees along the Red River, the mid 50s along the I-20 corridor,
and the upper 50s across Central Texas this afternoon.

Quickly on the heels on the overnight shortwave trough will be a
deeper and cooler upper level trough. While this next trough isn`t
forecast to swing across the region until early Friday morning, it
will send a cold front south tonight. The front will bring cooler
temperatures to the region, but nothing too out of the norm for
late January. Lift associated with the upper trough will enhance
low-level isentropic ascent across South Texas in the early
morning hours Friday. This will mostly result in increased cloud
cover over our Central Texas counties as most/all of the precip
remains to our south.



.LONG TERM... /Issued 336 AM CST Thu Jan 27 2022/
/Friday Onward/

Following the early Friday morning cold front, skies will
gradually clear through the morning leaving a seasonably cool and
dry end to the workweek. Post-frontal cold air advection will
offset plentiful insolation, and highs will only reach the lower
50s for most locations. Low-level flow will readily return to the
southwest on Saturday resulting in a quick warmup. Highs will
climb well above normal with readings in the mid and upper 60s.
Moisture will remain scoured from the area though, and very low
humidity may combine with southwesterly winds and warm
temperatures to yield elevated fire danger. Similar conditions
should exist on Sunday, but slightly lighter wind speeds may
mitigate fire weather conditions to some extent. Cirrus will also
be on the increase Sunday afternoon ahead of another upper-level
disturbance slated to arrive on Monday.

Next week is shaping up to be rather active with a couple of
strong troughs expected to affect the area. The aforementioned
disturbance arriving late Sunday and early Monday should be
capable of drawing a plume of Gulf moisture northward with
dewpoints climbing into the upper 40s and 50s. This compact
shortwave won`t be accompanied by a noteworthy frontal boundary,
but its dynamic ascent should be capable of generating numerous
disorganized showers and perhaps some isolated thunderstorms as
lapse rates steepen ahead of its arrival. Greatest PoPs and
potential rainfall totals will be across Central and East Texas
coinciding with the greater moisture axis, and they`ll taper off
to the northwest with only some low rain chances along the Red
River. Most precip should be exiting the area to the east by
Tuesday morning.

Perhaps the main feature of interest through the long term period
will be the next trough progged to deepen to our west by midweek.
Ensemble guidance has been consistent with advertising this
pattern shift which could allow for a significant arctic air
intrusion to take place around the middle or end of the week.
This trough, should it deepen to the levels currently indicated,
would also be accompanied by precipitation. What we`ll have to
monitor for over the coming days is its potential trajectory and
speed, since a progressive system would result in just a brief
shot at some rain along the system`s cold front followed by cold
but dry conditions in its wake. However, a slower solution that
lags the trough to our west could support an anafrontal setup with
wintry precipitation following the frontal passage later
Wednesday or Thursday.



/12Z TAFs/

The region will be under a blanket of mostly VFR stratus today and
tonight. The current TAFs maintain VFR through the entire TAF
period, however there will likely be some intermittent periods of
high MVFR and short-lived breaks in the clouds with no ceiling.
Exactly when these occur is unpredictable, so the TAF reflects
what we expect to prevail most of the time. The winds will remain
out of the northwest today with speeds light enough to offer
flexibility for airfield takeoff/landing configurations. A cold
front will move through after 00Z, bringing stronger north winds
and slightly lower ceilings. The ceilings should clear out of the
region from north to south tomorrow between ~10-14Z.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    53  33  54  32  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                56  37  54  31  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               50  30  50  28  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              51  29  54  26  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            52  31  53  29  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              53  34  52  33  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             54  32  52  28  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           56  36  54  31  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              57  37  54  29  65 /   0   5   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       52  27  54  26  68 /   0   0   0   0   0




NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion