{"id":1132,"date":"2026-06-09T04:54:57","date_gmt":"2026-06-09T09:54:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.dfwweather.org\/wxblog\/?p=1132"},"modified":"2026-06-09T14:24:48","modified_gmt":"2026-06-09T19:24:48","slug":"a-wet-june-is-a-strong-indicator-of-a-cooler-summer-at-dfw","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.dfwweather.org\/wxblog\/?p=1132","title":{"rendered":"A WET JUNE IS A STRONG INDICATOR OF A COOLER SUMMER FOR DFW"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>DFW has already recorded <strong>7.16 inches of rain<\/strong> this June \u2014 placing 2026 among the <strong>top 10 wettest Junes on record<\/strong>. Only eight other years have been wetter up to this point: <strong>1928, 1935, 1940, 1981, 1989, 2004, 2007, and 2017<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What makes these years so interesting is not just the rainfall \u2014 it\u2019s what happened <em>afterward<\/em>. Across more than a century of climate data, a very wet June in North Texas is one of the strongest predictors of a <strong>cooler\u2011than\u2011normal summer<\/strong> with <strong>far fewer 100\u2011degree days<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And the consistency is remarkable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Why Wet Junes Matter<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>When June rainfall is excessive:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>Soils become saturated<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Evapotranspiration skyrockets<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The boundary layer stays humid<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Extreme temperatures are suppressed<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The summer ridge struggles to anchor over Texas<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>This combination has historically produced summers that are <strong>cooler, cloudier, and far less extreme<\/strong> than the typical DFW scorchers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The 8 Wetter\u2011Than\u20112026 Junes \u2014 And What Followed<\/strong><\/h1>\n\n\n\n<p>Below is the expanded dataset showing:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>ENSO state the winter <em>before<\/em> the wet June<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>ENSO state the <em>following<\/em> winter<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Whether the summer was below normal<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Total number of 100\u2011degree days<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>This is the heart of the pattern.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\ud83d\udcca Expanded Analog Table<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.dfwweather.org\/wxblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Wet-June-Cool-Summers.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/www.dfwweather.org\/wxblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Wet-June-Cool-Summers-1024x683.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1133\" style=\"width:883px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.dfwweather.org\/wxblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Wet-June-Cool-Summers-1024x683.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.dfwweather.org\/wxblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Wet-June-Cool-Summers-300x200.png 300w, https:\/\/www.dfwweather.org\/wxblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Wet-June-Cool-Summers-768x512.png 768w, https:\/\/www.dfwweather.org\/wxblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Wet-June-Cool-Summers-624x416.png 624w, https:\/\/www.dfwweather.org\/wxblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Wet-June-Cool-Summers.png 1536w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>What the Analog Years Tell Us<\/strong><\/h1>\n\n\n\n<p>Across these eight years:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li><strong>7 of 8 summers were below normal<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>100\u00b0 days averaged only 5.5 per year<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Only one year (2017) reached \u201cnormal\u201d heat<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>None produced a hot summer<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>La Ni\u00f1a \u2192 El Ni\u00f1o transition years (1928, 1989, 2007) were especially cool<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>This is an extraordinarily tight cluster.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Where 2026 Fits<\/strong><\/h1>\n\n\n\n<p>2026 is currently:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>Coming off a <strong>La Ni\u00f1a winter<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Sitting in <strong>neutral ENSO<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>With a <strong>weak El Ni\u00f1o possible<\/strong> this coming winter<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Carrying <strong>very high soil moisture<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Tracking rainfall similar to 1928, 1989, and 2007<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Those three analogs had:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li><strong>0, 2, and 5<\/strong> triple\u2011digit days<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>All <strong>cool summers<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>All <strong>ENSO flips to El Ni\u00f1o<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>This is why the probability of a <strong>cooler\u2011than\u2011normal summer with 10 or fewer 100\u00b0 days<\/strong> is legitimately high \u2014 around <strong>90%<\/strong>, based on the historical dataset.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Bottom Line<\/strong><\/h1>\n\n\n\n<p>When June is extremely wet in North Texas, the summer almost never turns hot. The atmosphere simply can\u2019t overcome the soil moisture, humidity, and disrupted ridge pattern.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With 2026 already in the top tier of wet Junes \u2014 and matching the ENSO transition years most strongly associated with cool summers \u2014 the historical odds overwhelmingly favor:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li><strong>A below\u2011normal summer<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>A delayed first 100\u00b0 day<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>A total of 3\u201310 triple\u2011digit days<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>In other words: <strong>A rare break from the Texas heat looks likely.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>DFW has already recorded 7.16 inches of rain this June \u2014 placing 2026 among the top 10 wettest Junes on record. Only eight other years have been wetter up to this point: 1928, 1935, 1940, 1981, 1989, 2004, 2007, and 2017. What makes these years so interesting is not just the rainfall \u2014 it\u2019s what [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,14,12],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.dfwweather.org\/wxblog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1132"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.dfwweather.org\/wxblog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.dfwweather.org\/wxblog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.dfwweather.org\/wxblog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.dfwweather.org\/wxblog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1132"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.dfwweather.org\/wxblog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1132\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1135,"href":"https:\/\/www.dfwweather.org\/wxblog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1132\/revisions\/1135"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.dfwweather.org\/wxblog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1132"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.dfwweather.org\/wxblog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1132"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.dfwweather.org\/wxblog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1132"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}