FXUS64 KFWD 312337 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
637 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2020

...New Short Term, Aviation...



No major changes needed to the previous forecast. A
precipitation-free cold front is still expected to slide through
most of the area by daybreak Sunday. Blustery conditions can be
expected after sunrise Sunday with wind speeds of 10 to 15 mph
with gusts to near 25 mph. Otherwise, high clouds will slowly
diminish as flow aloft becomes more northwesterly. Temperatures on
Sunday will remain below normal values with highs predominantly
in the 60s with a few 70s across Central Texas.


Previous Discussion:
/This Afternoon Through Sunday/

A pretty nice afternoon shaping up today with highs in the mid-
upper 60s currently with south winds 10 to 15 mph under mostly
sunny skies. We still are forecasting highs by mid-late afternoon
to top out in the 70s generally west of I-35/35W in the north and
west of Highway 6 across Central Texas. Areas further east will
see cooler values in the 60s later today.

A strong shortwave disturbance will approach from the northwest
and flatten our weak upper ridge this evening, then move across
the area overnight and Monday morning, before exiting the region
later Sunday afternoon. This disturbance will provide support to a
cold front currently diving southward across the Central High
Plains of western KS/eastern Co. We`ll likely see a pre-frontal
surface trough arrive after midnight in the north and into Central
Texas just before sunrise Sunday. The true cold front and it`s
associated gusty north winds/cooler temperatures will arrive
across the Red River during the pre-dawn hours, the I-20/30
corridors by sunrise, and then Central Texas mid-late morning

North winds 15-20 mph with gusts to between 25-30 mph will be
driven by low level CAA and a tight surface pressure gradient in
advance of a 1035mb high pressure center dropping south across the
TX/OK Panhandles and Northern Oklahoma on Sunday. With the
atmospheric column likely to stay dry, warm, and stable below
500mb, I only expect scattered to broken high clouds with possibly
some high level virga. These high cloud decks in the morning
should transit south and east with the mid level shortwave during
the afternoon hours. This will allow enough insolation for
temperatures to still into the 60s areawide, with a few highs
making it to around 70 across the lower Brazos and Trinity River
Valleys of Central Texas. The time change and an earlier sunset
Sunday will help northerly wind speeds decouple late in the
afternoon to between 10 to 15 mph.



.LONG TERM... /Issued 155 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2020/
/Sunday night and beyond/

A cool and crisp night is expected across North and Central TX
Sunday night with light winds and mostly clear skies. This will
warrant overnight low temps in the mid/upper 30s to near 40 degrees.
South winds return on Monday, with the exception of the southeast
where winds will remain from the northeast most of the day. The
afternoon high temperatures will stay in the 60s areawide.

A warming trend is expected the rest of the week as a surface
high pressure moves to our east. Near or slightly above normal
temperatures are in the forecast, with highs in the 70s and lows
in the 40s/50s. While we keep the dry weather pattern over us, the
south winds will start to bring some gulf moisture northward
later in the week.

Not much has changed in terms of the potential for a pattern
change late weekend or early next week. Long range models continue
to suggest a longwave trough coming from the Rockies into the
Southern/Central Plains which could bring our next chance for
precipitation after next weekend.



/00 UTC TAF Cycle/

Concerns---Wind shift and non-convective low level wind shear.

VFR will prevail with cirrus expected to slowly thin through the
TAF cycle. A cold front...currently near a CDS to AVK line...will
advance southward and move through D10 TAFs between 5-7 UTC, which
is a little faster than previous thinking. FROPA is expected at
Waco around 10 UTC. I don`t expect the windshift to be very sharp
and it`ll likely take several hours for southerly flow to become
more northerly. No precipitation is expected. An inversion will
set up and keep surface winds calm initially with flow increasing
to around 25-30 knots aloft. This could result in some non-
convective low level wind shear, but the magnitudes appear too
marginal to include in the TAF at this juncture. After sunrise
Sunday, north to northeast surface winds will increase between 12
and 16 knots, with gusts as high as 25 knots.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    48  65  38  64  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                47  68  38  66  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               45  61  36  61  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              44  65  34  65  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            45  64  35  63  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              50  66  41  66  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             45  65  36  63  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           48  67  39  66  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              46  69  38  67  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       45  65  35  68  38 /   0   0   0   0   0




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