DFW FORECAST DISCUSSION
000 FXUS64 KFWD 282321 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 621 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020 .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Tonight & Sunday/ A broken line of showers and thunderstorms will continue moving east away from the area and toward Arkansas and the Mississippi River Valley through this evening. A surface trough is moving into our East Texas counties and will exit the area through nightfall this evening. Behind this feature, scattered-broken mid-high level cloudiness will give way to clearing skies that are already being seen across the western counties late this afternoon. Behind the surface trough, gusty west winds 10 to 15 mph were combining with the increasing insolation from pockets of sunshine to allow nice Spring-like temperatures in the 70s. Upstream, a cold front was seen moving southeast through the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles and into far western Oklahoma. As the vigorous mid level trough axis continues shifting east of the area this evening, clear skies will become the norm. Current gusty west winds will diminish to 10 mph or less, before the weak cold front slides in before morning with light north-northeast winds by daybreak Sunday. On Sunday, dry zonal flow in the morning will re-orient southwesterly with our surface ridge moving eastward away from the region. This will result in winds veering light east or southeast during the afternoon hours with increasing high clouds arriving late in the day. Regardless, Sunday should be a quieter and more pleasant late March day. After starting off cool in the mid 40s to lower 50s, look for temperatures to recover nicely within the dry airmass in place with highs warming readily into the 70s for the afternoon hours. 05/ && .LONG TERM... /Issued 220 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020/ /Sunday Night onward/ Monday will see the highest rain chances this week as a potent upper-level shortwave trough swings through the Southern Plains. Large-scale ascent, deep moisture, and instability will result in widespread shower and thunderstorm development by early afternoon. The initial development will be over western portions of our CWA, with convective activity spreading eastward throughout the day. Right now, while enough instability will be present to allow for thunderstorm development, it won`t be tremendously high. The limited instability will be the main limiting factor for severe thunderstorms. Still, SPC has highlighted a Slight Risk across our eastern counties where instability will be a little greater. More significantly, forecast soundings show large and curving low-level hodographs across our eastern counties. This means any strong updrafts that do manage to develop will be able to tap into this low-level shear, and could quickly become severe. Damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a few tornadoes may be possible. The greatest threat for severe weather will be east of I-45 during the late afternoon and evening hours. The rest of the week through at least Thursday should be fairly quiet as shortwave ridging overspread the south-central CONUS. Despite the ridging, temperatures will be near normal for much of the week (highs in the low to mid 70s, with overnight lows in the 50s). Towards the end of the week, upper-level flow will become more southwesterly, with the next shortwave trough approaching on late Thursday and into Friday. This will likely lead to increasing shower/thunderstorm chances. The ECMWF is more aggressive than the GFS with respect to QPF coverage, with both models showing a wide amount of disagreement. For this reason, will keep PoPs on the lower side and monitor trends through the week. Godwin && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00Z TAFs/ Challenges: Minor...wind direction/speeds through Sunday. Otherwise, VFR with SKC-SCT300 through Sunday morning, with high clouds becoming BKN at FL250-300 after 18z Sunday. A mid level trough continues to shift east of the area with drier northwest flow arriving into western North Texas at the moment. At the surface, a surface trough will continue to shift east away from the airports, while we await a weak cold FROPA arriving from the north late tonight under mostly SKC conditions. Occasionally gusty west winds 10 to 15 knots will continue to cause some minor crosswind issues through nightfall. Winds are expected to shift north 10 knots or less tonight, before veering east Sunday morning, then southeast Sunday afternoon. No precipitation is expected. 05/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 50 73 58 67 55 / 0 0 20 90 40 Waco 46 75 58 70 54 / 0 0 30 90 40 Paris 48 72 55 63 54 / 0 0 20 90 90 Denton 45 72 55 65 54 / 0 0 20 90 40 McKinney 46 73 55 65 54 / 0 0 20 90 60 Dallas 51 74 58 67 56 / 0 0 20 90 50 Terrell 47 73 56 68 54 / 0 0 30 90 60 Corsicana 50 74 58 68 57 / 0 0 30 90 60 Temple 47 76 58 71 54 / 0 0 30 90 30 Mineral Wells 44 73 53 66 52 / 0 0 10 90 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 05/22