DFW FORECAST DISCUSSION
662 FXUS64 KFWD 201119 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 619 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2019 .AVIATION... A building ridge aloft will keep VFR conditions at all North and Central Texas TAF sites through tonight. Although low level moisture will slowly increase through tonight, the only clouds expected will be some scattered cirrus. A light south wind this morning will steadily increase through the day as surface low pressure deepens across the Central High Plains. Wind speeds this afternoon and tonight will range from 8 to 12 knots along with a few higher gusts. 79 && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 359 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2019/ /Today and Tonight/ An upper level ridge will build into the region today while southerly surface winds return in response to a developing surface trough across the Central High Plains. As a result, temperatures will be considerably warmer today than Friday with highs ranging from the middle 70s in the northeast to the middle 80s in the west. Wind speeds will be light this morning but steadily increase through the afternoon. Increasing low level warm/moist advection tonight will result in a fairly mild night with lows ranging from the mid 50s to the lower 60s. 79 && .LONG TERM... /Issued 359 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2019/ /Sunday through Friday/ Another widespread - and in some spots, generous - rainfall event still appears in the offing for North and Central Texas next Tuesday through Thursday. The threat for widespread severe thunderstorms still appears relatively low, but not out of the question for our area. At the same time, localized heavy rainfall may occur, particularly on Wednesday. Sunday through Monday... Easter Sunday will be gorgeous, with sunny skies and afternoon temperatures climbing into the 80s at most locations. The only rub will be the strong southerly winds, which will be topping out in the 15-25 mph range - especially along and west of I-35. We may need to consider a Wind Advisory for Sunday afternoon, if the gusty guidance trends intensify. A broad southwesterly upper level flow regime will steadily evolve from Sunday into Monday, ahead of the deepening trough over UT/AZ. High level cloudiness will begin overspreading the region on Monday, producing filtered sunshine by afternoon. Tuesday through Wednesday Night... The Euro, GFS and Canadian are in good agreement in the evolution of the Southwest upper low, which exits the Rockies and reaches a MO/OK/TX axis by 06z Thursday. A corresponding frontal boundary will gradually work into North Texas by Wednesday, eventually clearing the entire forecast area by sunset Wednesday. Synoptic- scale forcing for ascent will steadily increase Tuesday, and become abundant Wednesday. The same can be said for low-level moisture, which will be transported northward in ample quantities toward the evolving baroclinic zone setting up over North Texas. The upshot will be another healthy round of shower activity, beginning in the western and northern counties Tuesday afternoon, and overspreading the entire area Tuesday night and Wednesday. More than enough CAPE will be available for scattered thunderstorms areawide Tuesday night through Wednesday night, and the expected convective mode will likely be multi-cellular clusters. Not overly crazy about the severe weather threat just yet, though ML CAPE and shear values in some areas hint at some marginal severe potential - especially Wednesday. Of slightly greater concern will be the potential for some locally heavy rainfall, given forecast PW values that climb to near 150-175% of normal in some areas by Wednesday. At this point, believe just about everyone will see at least another inch of rainfall with this system, some areas picking up 2-3" totals by early Thursday. Given that all sections of North and Central TX are running at or above normal for April rainfall, soils are a tad moist now. Despite the burgeoning vegetative growth, this additional rainfall may result in some minor flooding concerns next week. Thursday and Friday... Compared with yesterday`s runs, the current model solutions now offer a more progressive picture with the aformentioned upper trough, pushing it east of our area Thursday and replacing it with a flat shortwave ridge on Friday. Accordingly, precipitation should end from west to east across North Texas Thursday, with clearing conditions occurring through the daylight hours. Friday (and for that matter, the weekend) looks great, with mostly sunny skies and temperatures primarily in the lower 80s. Bradshaw && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 79 59 82 63 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 78 58 81 62 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 73 53 78 59 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 Denton 78 58 82 62 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 76 57 80 61 79 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dallas 79 60 81 63 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 76 57 81 61 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 76 56 79 60 79 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 78 57 82 62 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 82 57 84 60 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 79/66