DFW FORECAST DISCUSSION
000 FXUS64 KFWD 201035 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 535 AM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: No significant changes to the forecast through Monday. Today will be hot with a little additional humidity compared to yesterday. Highs in the mid/upper 90s will result in heat indices near 100 areawide this afternoon. The cold front still looks like it will move through North Texas tomorrow afternoon accompanied by an increase in showers and thunderstorms. Strong instability will support a few severe storms with mainly a damaging wind threat. Dunn && Previous Discussion: /Overnight through Monday/ Another clear and warm night will occur across North and Central Texas as we remain primarily under the influence of strong ridging centered to our west. Overnight lows will only fall into the mid 70s across most of the region. Weak mid tropospheric flow has generally been unable to tap into appreciable moisture and a relatively dry boundary layer has left most of the region warm but lacking the higher humidity we saw earlier in the week. That will begin to change on Sunday as our ridge axis shifts westward to some extent and a shortwave trough digs into the Northern Plains and Great Lakes region. This will send a cold front southward through the Plains and induce a poleward mass response across Texas due to falling pressures in the Plains. These southerly winds will tap into a moisture rich western Gulf of Mexico where buoy and oil platform observations indicate dewpoints in the upper 70s. This higher moisture is already spreading into Deep South Texas and the Coastal Bend and will gradually spread northward into our southeastern counties through the day Sunday. Sunday should be precipitation free across the region although some scattered storms may develop across Southeast Texas during the afternoon. It`ll be hot with high temps in the mid/upper 90s and heat indices in the 99-102 degree range. Boundary layer moisture will continue to increase particularly east of I-35 Sunday night into early Monday as the cold front moves through Oklahoma and approaches our northern counties during the late morning hours. There continues to be a fairly significant timing difference between the global guidance and the higher resolution models with respect to the front. This will clearly have implications on the temperature forecast as a slower front will allow temperatures to quickly climb ahead of FROPA. Latest forecast will trend toward the NAM/TTU WRF with respect to timing (newest NBM guidance is slower now too) and we`ll keep high temperatures in the lower 90s across most of the region with mid/upper 90s across our southern counties. As the front moves into an increasingly unstable airmass, thunderstorms should develop and increase in coverage through the late afternoon and evening hours particularly along and north of I-20. Meager lapse rates and weak flow through 700 mb should limit the severe threat, but we still can`t rule out a few severe wind gusts given the strong instability. Storm chances will continue into Monday evening as the front pushes into Central Texas. Dunn && .LONG TERM... /Issued 336 AM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021/ /Tuesday onward/ Some showers and a few thunderstorms may be lingering across parts of the region on Tuesday morning following the Monday night cold front passage, but expecting a generally dry day on Tuesday. Temperatures will be much below normal with highs likely only to be in the 80s across the region. Across North TX, dewpoints may manage to drop into the lower 60s or even upper 50s, which will make for one, very pleasant day. Unfortunately for Central Texas, dewpoints seem likely to stay in the upper 60s to lower 70s. By mid-week, temperatures will quickly rebound to near to slightly above seasonal normals as the mid-level ridge across the Southwest builds back into the Great Plains, placing North/Central TX underneath the eastern periphery. This will lead to hot weather, with Friday likely to be the hottest day. For next weekend, the global models are beginning to show a possibility of another deep trough digging across the Northern and Central Plains, which may drive a cold front into North/Central TX by Saturday. There has not been tremendous run-to-run consistency in the models, but there is probably an elevated risk at this point for increasing rain chances and potentially below normal temperatures as well by next weekend. Godwin && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /12Z TAFs/ VFR will continue through late evening with southerly winds increasing to 15 to 20 this afternoon. By tonight, low level moisture will increase ahead of an approaching cold front with MVFR cigs expected to develop and spread northward. We`ll include BKN025 at all sites after midnight. FROPA is expected just beyond the current valid TAF period with scattered thunderstorms likely around all sites through evening. Dunn && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 97 78 91 66 85 / 0 0 70 70 0 Waco 96 77 94 68 83 / 0 0 40 80 10 Paris 94 75 87 62 82 / 0 0 90 70 5 Denton 96 75 87 61 84 / 0 0 80 60 0 McKinney 95 76 89 63 83 / 0 0 80 70 0 Dallas 97 79 91 67 85 / 0 0 70 70 0 Terrell 95 75 90 64 82 / 0 0 70 80 5 Corsicana 95 77 92 68 84 / 0 0 60 80 10 Temple 95 76 94 67 84 / 0 5 30 80 10 Mineral Wells 98 75 89 62 83 / 0 0 60 50 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$