DFW FORECAST DISCUSSION
000
FXUS64 KFWD 190050
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
650 PM CST Mon Jan 18 2021

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Tuesday Night/

Big changes are on the way as an unsettled weather pattern
returns to North and Central Texas tonight and lingers through the
end of the week. No significant departures from previous forecast
with this update apart from adjustments to account for
observations and latest trends in model guidance.

Lower level moisture has been gradually increasing across the
region today, discernible earlier on visible satellite as the
deck of stratus that overspread the region early but has since
gradually eroded and cleared. Low cloud cover will reassert itself
and become more widespread this evening which will attribute to
overnight temperatures remaining 10-15 degrees warmer than
climatological normals for mid-January. Low temperatures will
range from the lower 40s across northern and western North Texas
to the mid to upper 50s across the southeast.

A shortwave dropping through the Northern Plains has helped push
a cold front across Oklahoma and parts of western North Texas this
afternoon. This cold front, now draped just outside our northwest
counties will advance slowly through the region tonight. The
front is expected to reach the I-20 corridor between 9 PM and
midnight with a notably slower forward progression as it
approaches our far southeastern areas after daybreak Tuesday. Scattered
showers are expected to begin developing late tonight along the
southeastward advancing cold front. Isentropic ascent behind the
cold front will lead to showers continuing Tuesday. The highest
chances for rain will expand southward Tuesday morning through the
afternoon, into areas generally near and south of I-20 where a
pool of better moisture (PWATs in excess of 1") is likely to be
concentrated. Mentions of isolated thunder have also been retained
in this update with latest high resolution model guidance
maintaining enough instability (300-600 J/kg) for a few rumbles of
thunder south of I-20 and along and east of the I-35 corridor.
Severe weather continues to look unlikely given limited
instability.

Behind the front, winds will shift to become northeasterly with
sustained wind speeds increasing to 10-15 mph and gusts up to
20-25 mph possible in some locations. Weak CAA, breezy northerly
winds, cloudy skies, and scattered showers will make for a dreary
and cool Tuesday with high temperatures generally stalling in the
upper 40s and 50s. High temperatures in the lower 60s will be
likely in our far southeastern tier of counties, Milam to Anderson
counties, where the slowed/delayed arrival of the front will
allow these locations to spend an extended time in the warm
sector.


12

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 227 PM CST Mon Jan 18 2021/
/Tuesday Night and Beyond/

Wet and unsettled weather will continue through the long term
period with several rounds of rain expected over the next few
days. An upper low near Baja California will remain nearly
stationary on Wednesday, allowing southwesterly flow to bring
ample Pacific moisture into the area. Periods of rain will be
possible through Friday as the weakening trough slowly moves
northeast. As it makes its final departure on Friday, a weak cold
front will slide through the area, bringing a brief period of dry
weather Friday night.

As southerly flow is re-established on Saturday, rich Gulf
moisture will advect into the area. Isentropic ascent within the
plume of moisture should allow scattered showers to develop
throughout the day. Meanwhile, a second upper trough will eject
off of the West Coast. As it inches closer to the area, showers
should gradually increase in coverage on Sunday. Showers and
occasional thunderstorms will likely continue into early next
week until another cold front brings drier air and cooler
temperatures back to the region.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00 UTC TAF Cycle/

VFR cigs prevail but improvement will be short lived with MVFR
conditions redeveloping tonight as a cold front approaches. SHRA
are expected to begin developing well northeast of all TAF sites
around 02-04Z Tuesday, as the southeastward advancing cold front
crosses the Red River. Latest model guidance continues to show
the potential for VCSH and MVFR cigs developing in DFW and Waco
around 04-06Z. Isentropic ascent behind the cold front will lead
to showers continuing through the day Tuesday. Occasional
degradation to IFR cigs and SHRA possible at all Metroplex
terminals between 07Z and 11Z and at Waco between 11Z and 15Z, as
the cold front moves through the area. Higher moisture content
across Central Texas will enhance the potential for lower cigs and
impacts to vis. Southerly winds around 4-8 kts will shift to the
northeast post- FROPA and increase to 10-14 kts with occasional
gusts to 20 kts possible.

12

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    46  51  42  54  48 /  40  20  20  40  40
Waco                51  54  44  55  50 /  70  60  30  50  40
Paris               44  52  39  53  46 /  80  20  10  30  40
Denton              42  52  38  53  45 /  20  10  10  40  30
McKinney            44  51  39  53  47 /  60  20  10  40  40
Dallas              48  52  44  55  50 /  50  30  20  40  40
Terrell             47  52  41  54  48 /  70  40  20  40  50
Corsicana           52  55  45  56  50 /  70  70  20  40  50
Temple              50  55  44  55  49 /  50  70  30  50  40
Mineral Wells       42  51  39  53  45 /  10  10  20  40  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion