FXUS64 KFWD 282321

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
621 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

/Tonight & Sunday/

A broken line of showers and thunderstorms will continue moving
east away from the area and toward Arkansas and the Mississippi
River Valley through this evening. A surface trough is moving into
our East Texas counties and will exit the area through nightfall
this evening. Behind this feature, scattered-broken mid-high level
cloudiness will give way to clearing skies that are already being
seen across the western counties late this afternoon. Behind the
surface trough, gusty west winds 10 to 15 mph were combining with
the increasing insolation from pockets of sunshine to allow nice
Spring-like temperatures in the 70s. Upstream, a cold front was
seen moving southeast through the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles and
into far western Oklahoma.

As the vigorous mid level trough axis continues shifting east of
the area this evening, clear skies will become the norm. Current
gusty west winds will diminish to 10 mph or less, before the weak
cold front slides in before morning with light north-northeast
winds by daybreak Sunday. On Sunday, dry zonal flow in the morning
will re-orient southwesterly with our surface ridge moving
eastward away from the region. This will result in winds veering
light east or southeast during the afternoon hours with increasing
high clouds arriving late in the day. Regardless, Sunday should
be a quieter and more pleasant late March day. After starting off
cool in the mid 40s to lower 50s, look for temperatures to recover
nicely within the dry airmass in place with highs warming readily
into the 70s for the afternoon hours.



.LONG TERM... /Issued 220 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020/
/Sunday Night onward/

Monday will see the highest rain chances this week as a potent
upper-level shortwave trough swings through the Southern Plains.
Large-scale ascent, deep moisture, and instability will result in
widespread shower and thunderstorm development by early afternoon.
The initial development will be over western portions of our CWA,
with convective activity spreading eastward throughout the day.
Right now, while enough instability will be present to allow for
thunderstorm development, it won`t be tremendously high. The
limited instability will be the main limiting factor for severe
thunderstorms. Still, SPC has highlighted a Slight Risk across our
eastern counties where instability will be a little greater. More
significantly, forecast soundings show large and curving low-level
hodographs across our eastern counties. This means any strong
updrafts that do manage to develop will be able to tap into this
low-level shear, and could quickly become severe. Damaging wind
gusts, large hail, and a few tornadoes may be possible. The
greatest threat for severe weather will be east of I-45 during the
late afternoon and evening hours.

The rest of the week through at least Thursday should be fairly
quiet as shortwave ridging overspread the south-central CONUS.
Despite the ridging, temperatures will be near normal for much of
the week (highs in the low to mid 70s, with overnight lows in the
50s). Towards the end of the week, upper-level flow will become
more southwesterly, with the next shortwave trough approaching on
late Thursday and into Friday. This will likely lead to increasing
shower/thunderstorm chances. The ECMWF is more aggressive than the
GFS with respect to QPF coverage, with both models showing a wide
amount of disagreement. For this reason, will keep PoPs on the
lower side and monitor trends through the week.



/00Z TAFs/

Challenges: Minor...wind direction/speeds through Sunday.
Otherwise, VFR with SKC-SCT300 through Sunday morning, with
high clouds becoming BKN at FL250-300 after 18z Sunday.

A mid level trough continues to shift east of the area with drier
northwest flow arriving into western North Texas at the moment. At
the surface, a surface trough will continue to shift east away
from the airports, while we await a weak cold FROPA arriving from
the north late tonight under mostly SKC conditions.

Occasionally gusty west winds 10 to 15 knots will continue to
cause some minor crosswind issues through nightfall. Winds are
expected to shift north 10 knots or less tonight, before veering
east Sunday morning, then southeast Sunday afternoon. No
precipitation is expected.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    50  73  58  67  55 /   0   0  20  90  40
Waco                46  75  58  70  54 /   0   0  30  90  40
Paris               48  72  55  63  54 /   0   0  20  90  90
Denton              45  72  55  65  54 /   0   0  20  90  40
McKinney            46  73  55  65  54 /   0   0  20  90  60
Dallas              51  74  58  67  56 /   0   0  20  90  50
Terrell             47  73  56  68  54 /   0   0  30  90  60
Corsicana           50  74  58  68  57 /   0   0  30  90  60
Temple              47  76  58  71  54 /   0   0  30  90  30
Mineral Wells       44  73  53  66  52 /   0   0  10  90  20





NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion