FXUS64 KFWD 131840

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
140 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

/Through Friday/

Dangerous heat continues to be the highlight of the short term
period as an upper ridge remains planted over the area. Morning
convection in the northeast has dissipated, but any residual
outflow boundary could be a focus for isolated shower/storm
development this afternoon, similar to yesterday. Otherwise,
temperatures will soar into the upper 90s to 108 with the hottest
locales in the west.

Overnight, an upper level disturbance will move along the eastern
periphery of the upper high centered to our west. This feature
will likely spur another overnight MCS to our northeast. As the
complex moves to the southeast during the pre-dawn hours Friday
morning, a few showers and storms along its outflow may make their
way into our northeast counties. The best chances for showers and
thunderstorms will generally be northeast of a Gainesville to
Canton line. Severe weather is not anticipated, but gusty winds,
brief heavy rain, and frequent lightning will be possible with any
storms. Showers and storms will linger through Friday morning,
but should come to an end by midday.

High temperatures were bumped up a bit Friday afternoon as
southwest flow just above the surface should allow compressional
warming to take place. Highs are expected to top out at 105 and
above for many locations on Friday and Saturday. Therefore, the
Excessive Heat Warning will be extended further east to encompass
these areas. With the hottest temperatures of the year set to
occur this week, heat safety will be of the utmost importance.
Take extra precautions to avoid heat-related illnesses if you plan
on spending time outdoors.

With minimum relative humidities near 20-25%, breezy afternoon
winds, and hot temperatures, an elevated threat for grassfires
will continue through the end of the week.



.LONG TERM... /Issued 306 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020/
/Friday Night through Wednesday/

Strong upper ridging will remain in place on Friday but will begin
a westward shift by Friday night through the weekend. This will
allow northerly flow aloft to become established across the
Southern Plains and will open the door for a weak front to slide
southward over the weekend. It`ll continue to be hot both Saturday
and Sunday with highs above 100 degrees in most locations. The
aforementioned weak front will slide south toward the Red River on
Saturday and may actually be accompanied by a period of
compressional warming ahead of its arrival. This could send temp
upward from the current forecast of 102-104 degrees.

A mid level disturbance will move through the Southern Plains on
Sunday and will give the front an additional southward push. Right
now it looks like Sunday will be mostly dry, although an isolated
storm isn`t completely out of the question. If any storms do
develop on Sunday, they would most certainly be accompanied by a
wind threat. Rain chances will creep upward on Sunday night into
Monday as the ridge continues its westward retreat. Moisture
should be sufficient for at least widely scattered showers/storms,
but we won`t go any higher than 20-30% on PoPs at this time.
Northerly flow should remain in place for much of next week which
will keep temperatures back down closer to seasonal norms or a few
degrees below.



/18Z TAFs/

VFR is expected at all TAF sites through the valid TAF period.
Southerly winds near 10-15 knots will prevail. Any morning
convection should remain north and northeast of D10 terminals, but
may impact Bonham arrivals through midday Friday.



Dallas-Ft. Worth   103  82 105  82 104 /   5   5   5   0   5
Waco               104  79 104  80 105 /   0   0   0   0   5
Paris               98  77  98  76  98 /  20  20  20   5   5
Denton             104  81 106  81 103 /   5   5  10   0   5
McKinney           103  81 104  80 103 /   5  10  10   0   5
Dallas             104  82 105  82 104 /   5   5   5   0   5
Terrell            103  78 104  79 102 /   5  10  10   0   5
Corsicana          103  78 102  80 102 /   5   5   5   0   5
Temple             104  77 103  78 104 /   0   0   0   0   5
Mineral Wells      105  78 107  79 104 /   0   0   5   5   5


Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for TXZ091>095-102>107-

Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Friday for TXZ100-101-115-




NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion