FXUS64 KFWD 171954

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
254 PM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018

/Through Tonight/

A plume of Gulf moisture is working its way into Central and East
Texas this afternoon associated with a disturbance on the western
periphery of the upper ridge. Lift from this disturbance has
allowed numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop across much
of southeast Texas within an area of 2-2.5" PWs. Some of this
activity has begun spreading into our southeastern counties this
afternoon, and will be capable of brief heavy rain and occasional
lightning strikes. Farther to the north and west, some stubborn
drier air through the mid-levels is preventing much noteworthy
precipitation from developing, and a few diurnally-driven showers
will be the extent of activity in these areas today. However, the
increased clouds have helped keep temperatures a few degrees
cooler today with most areas sitting in the upper 80s or low 90s
as of 3pm. As heating wanes this evening, so will any ongoing
convection, and expect a relative lull in precipitation chances
overnight. After midnight, another surge of moisture will result
in increasing clouds as low stratus envelops most of the area.
Additional showers may creep into our southeastern zones prior to
daybreak within the area of deepest moisture.



/Monday through Sunday/

Rain chances increase across the region Monday through Tuesday as
the disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico moves into Texas. The track
of this system is now farther north than model runs the previous
few days...moving the surface low and associated inverted trough
onshore near the Middle Texas Coast and into the Hill Country.
This track is more favorable for rain across North and Central
Texas, but did not increase PoPs much over the previous forecast
as the coverage of rain is still expected to be mainly scattered
and diurnally-driven. However, we may see more widespread
coverage across at least the southern half of the region Monday
night into Tuesday if/when the surface trough tracks into the Hill
Country. This is the first model run in about a day or two that
has shifted the track back to the north, and thus will keep PoPs
at 50-60 percent across Central Texas, tapering to 20 percent near
the Red River. The main hazards continue to be the potential for
gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Widespread flooding is not
expected but localized minor flooding may be possible south of
Interstate 20 where heavy rainfall rates occur within a short
period and/or training of storm occurs.

There is better agreement today that the energy from the Gulf of
Mexico system will be pulled north and absorbed by an upper level
trough that approaches the region starting Wednesday. This will
continue the rain chances and potential for localized heavy
rainfall on Wednesday. In addition, the approaching trough may
push a weak front into the region. The models continue to keep
this front north of North Texas, and if this happens, we will be
monitoring for storms developing near the front and moving south
in the northwest flow aloft. The GFS and European indicate this
potential Wednesday night-Thursday morning and have kept low rain
chances across the northern half.

With the upper level trough still across the Plains on Thursday,
diurnally-driven convection will be possible mainly across the
eastern half of the region. The forecast then dries out for the
weekend as the upper level trough moves east and ridging returns.

Temperatures for the next few days will be near and below normal
due to the cloud cover and rain, but the increased moisture
means it won`t feel much "cooler". Instead it will likely feel
humid and sticky Monday through Wednesday. High temperatures the
next few days will generally range from the mid 80s to lower 90s,
but parts of Central Texas may only reach the lower 80s on
Tuesday. Temperatures will be quick to rebound above normal as
the upper level ridge returns later in the week.



.AVIATION... /Issued 1243 PM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018/
/18z TAFs/

Concerns: MVFR cigs and SHRA/TS potential

There has been a marked increase in moisture across the region
ahead of a northward-moving disturbance from the Gulf of Mexico.
This has led to widespread VFR cigs this afternoon along with
increased diurnally-driven rain shower activity. Will carry VCSH
at all airports through early evening without a TS mention for
now, although isolated lightning strikes will be of concern
mostly across Central Texas where instability is higher.
Otherwise, winds will remain SE around 10 kts.

Overnight, MVFR cigs will return, although they should be more
widespread and longer-lasting than previous nights. Cigs below 2
kft should arrive at Waco around 06z and at Metroplex airports
around 09z. Conditions should improve to VFR by late morning
followed by higher chances for showers or thunderstorms during the
afternoon hours. Will carry VCSH in the extended DFW TAF, but
VCTS may be needed in future TAFs.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    77  90  76  86  76 /  10  40  20  40  20
Waco                76  89  75  84  74 /  20  50  40  50  30
Paris               73  88  74  87  73 /   5  40  20  40  20
Denton              77  91  76  87  75 /  10  30  20  30  20
McKinney            75  90  73  86  74 /  10  30  20  30  20
Dallas              78  91  77  87  75 /  10  40  20  40  20
Terrell             77  89  75  86  73 /  20  40  30  40  30
Corsicana           75  89  75  84  73 /  20  50  40  50  30
Temple              75  87  74  83  73 /  20  50  50  60  40
Mineral Wells       74  92  74  85  73 /  10  30  20  30  20





NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion