FXUS64 KFWD 201119

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
619 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2019

A building ridge aloft will keep VFR conditions at all North and
Central Texas TAF sites through tonight. Although low level
moisture will slowly increase through tonight, the only clouds
expected will be some scattered cirrus.

A light south wind this morning will steadily increase through the
day as surface low pressure deepens across the Central High
Plains. Wind speeds this afternoon and tonight will range from 8
to 12 knots along with a few higher gusts.



.SHORT TERM... /Issued 359 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2019/
/Today and Tonight/

An upper level ridge will build into the region today while
southerly surface winds return in response to a developing surface
trough across the Central High Plains. As a result, temperatures
will be considerably warmer today than Friday with highs ranging
from the middle 70s in the northeast to the middle 80s in the
west. Wind speeds will be light this morning but steadily
increase through the afternoon.

Increasing low level warm/moist advection tonight will result in
a fairly mild night with lows ranging from the mid 50s to the
lower 60s.



.LONG TERM... /Issued 359 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2019/
/Sunday through Friday/

Another widespread - and in some spots, generous - rainfall event
still appears in the offing for North and Central Texas next
Tuesday through Thursday. The threat for widespread severe
thunderstorms still appears relatively low, but not out of the
question for our area. At the same time, localized heavy rainfall
may occur, particularly on Wednesday.

Sunday through Monday...

Easter Sunday will be gorgeous, with sunny skies and afternoon
temperatures climbing into the 80s at most locations. The only
rub will be the strong southerly winds, which will be topping out
in the 15-25 mph range - especially along and west of I-35. We
may need to consider a Wind Advisory for Sunday afternoon, if the
gusty guidance trends intensify. A broad southwesterly upper
level flow regime will steadily evolve from Sunday into Monday,
ahead of the deepening trough over UT/AZ. High level cloudiness
will begin overspreading the region on Monday, producing filtered
sunshine by afternoon.

Tuesday through Wednesday Night...

The Euro, GFS and Canadian are in good agreement in the evolution
of the Southwest upper low, which exits the Rockies and reaches
a MO/OK/TX axis by 06z Thursday. A corresponding frontal boundary
will gradually work into North Texas by Wednesday, eventually
clearing the entire forecast area by sunset Wednesday. Synoptic-
scale forcing for ascent will steadily increase Tuesday, and
become abundant Wednesday. The same can be said for low-level
moisture, which will be transported northward in ample quantities
toward the evolving baroclinic zone setting up over North Texas.
The upshot will be another healthy round of shower activity,
beginning in the western and northern counties Tuesday afternoon,
and overspreading the entire area Tuesday night and Wednesday.

More than enough CAPE will be available for scattered thunderstorms
areawide Tuesday night through Wednesday night, and the expected
convective mode will likely be multi-cellular clusters. Not
overly crazy about the severe weather threat just yet, though ML
CAPE and shear values in some areas hint at some marginal severe
potential - especially Wednesday. Of slightly greater concern
will be the potential for some locally heavy rainfall, given
forecast PW values that climb to near 150-175% of normal in some
areas by Wednesday. At this point, believe just about everyone
will see at least another inch of rainfall with this system, some
areas picking up 2-3" totals by early Thursday. Given that all
sections of North and Central TX are running at or above normal
for April rainfall, soils are a tad moist now. Despite the
burgeoning vegetative growth, this additional rainfall may result
in some minor flooding concerns next week.

Thursday and Friday...

Compared with yesterday`s runs, the current model solutions now
offer a more progressive picture with the aformentioned upper
trough, pushing it east of our area Thursday and replacing it with
a flat shortwave ridge on Friday. Accordingly, precipitation
should end from west to east across North Texas Thursday, with
clearing conditions occurring through the daylight hours. Friday
(and for that matter, the weekend) looks great, with mostly sunny
skies and temperatures primarily in the lower 80s.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    79  59  82  63  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                78  58  81  62  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               73  53  78  59  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              78  58  82  62  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            76  57  80  61  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              79  60  81  63  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             76  57  81  61  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           76  56  79  60  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              78  57  82  62  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       82  57  84  60  82 /   0   0   0   0   0





NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion