DFW FORECAST DISCUSSION
000 FXUS64 KFWD 240758 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 158 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2020 .SHORT TERM... /Issued 1250 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2020/ /Through Tuesday/ A plume of isentropic ascent is contributing to scattered elevated showers across portions of Central and East Texas as of midnight. This activity is rooted up around 600mb, above the steepest lapse rates through the column, and therefore won`t have access to much of the buoyancy present. As a result, mostly just showers are expected, with perhaps an isolated lightning strike across our southeast zones over the next several hours. All of this activity will exit the area to the east/southeast shortly after daybreak. Meanwhile, a Pacific front is entering the forecast area from the west, identifiable by a WSW wind shift and significantly lower dewpoints. This boundary will make eastward progress through the day, as its parent surface low located in Oklahoma drifts east accordingly. The arrival of drier air will scour low-level moisture, and skies will continue a clearing trend with some mid/high clouds still present through midday. The one exception will be our northeastern zones where some moisture will wrap around the back side of the departing low, causing overcast skies to linger through much of the day. Otherwise, the sharp pressure gradient associated with the deep surface low will result in a blustery day for most of the area with sustained winds around 20 mph and some gusts around 30 mph. This is pretty marginal for a Wind Advisory, and will hold off on issuing one at this time. The surface low will continue occluding, while its true cold front overtakes the Pacific front boundary late in the day. This will veer winds more northwesterly, but the near neutral temperature advection will make its passage rather unnoticeable. By this evening, winds will lessen as the pressure gradient relaxes and the surface low moves away to the northeast. A second strong shortwave will dive southeastward towards Texas tonight, sending a secondary stronger cold front through the area early Tuesday. The cold advection behind this front will be more noticeable, and it keep Tuesday`s highs 5-10 degrees cooler than Mnoday`s. Meager moisture will be present following the passage of Monday`s system, but enough mid-level moisture could still be present for some cloud cover to exist during the day. -Stalley && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Mid Week Through Next Weekend/ The mid week period will start off feeling like Winter and be quite windy and chilly. As the initial system moves rapidly off to the northeast, another strong mid level impulse arrives in it`s wake. This second impulse will help to amplify the larger longwave trough centered over the Midwest and Plains. Luckily, the moisture profile in the thermodynamic environment will be quite dry in the low levels with the better elevated frontogenesis and lift remaining north of the Red River Valley up into Eastern Oklahoma and the Ozarks. This will allow a much deeper front up through 850mb to pass southward across the area with 850mb temperatures of -5 to -10 Deg C across much of the area. After lows Wednesday morning fall into the 30s and lower 40s, highs will struggle to rise into the 40s with the exception of Central Texas where a few readings may reach around 50 degrees thanks in part to stronger insolation and relatively warmer 850mb temperatures. In addition to the cold temperatures, unidirectional northerly flow through 850mb upwards to 40 knots will easily transfer this momentum to the surface with gusty north winds of 20 to 30 mph. Wind chills will begin in the 20s Wednesday morning, before winds gradually diminish in the afternoon, as cold Canadian high pressure slides gradually in from West TX. With clear skies, and the surface decoupling from the stronger low level flow above, Thursday morning will be the coldest of the week with most areas well below freezing and abundant frost across the area. As the cold surface highs progressively shifts east of the area by Thursday afternoon, plentiful sunshine and the arriving of modest southwest winds 10 to 15 mph will allow for quite the diurnal recovery in temperatures back into the mid 50s to lower 60s. The moderation trends will continue as we end the week and move into next weekend, as the deep cyclonic flow overhead dampens in response to the deep mid level low moving northeast across the Great Lakes and toward Hudson Bay Canada. By the weekend, shortwave mid level ridging and height rises will result in broad subsidence and Spring-like high temperatures well up into the 60s and even into the lower 70s for a few areas. During this time, a new system will be organizing along or just off the West Coast of WA/OR/and CA. By the end of the weekend, this system digging across the Desert Southwest will allow for flow aloft to orient southwesterly, while low level southerly flow increases moving toward the end of the weekend into early next. After a dry week into much of next weekend, it appears an unsettled pattern return for early next week with increasing rain and convective chances. After all of the rain the first half February, it should be a nice reprieve this next week to allow soils to continue drying out before next substantial rainfall hits towards the end of the month. 05/ && .AVIATION... /Issued 1250 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2020/ /06z TAFs/ While IFR conditions exist across the Metroplex with MVFR at Waco, a rapid improvement to VFR will occur over the next few hours as dry air filters into the area from the west. All precipitation has shifted east of the TAF sites as of 07z, and all airports should remain rain-free through the period. Some lingering mid/upper-level VFR cigs could linger through the rest of the day, along with perhaps FEW/SCT clouds around 4 kft in North Texas, as moisture wraps around the back side of the exiting low pressure system. Otherwise, the main concern through period will be the potential for some crosswind issues later this morning and early afternoon. A Pacific front will move through all TAF sites over the next few hours, veering winds to the west. Westerly winds around 20 kts with gusts as high as 30 kts will exist for a few hours around midday before the passage of a cold front shifts winds more northwesterly. They will lessen in speed this evening to around 10 kts after 00z. A secondary cold front will push through early Tuesday morning, veering winds to the NNE, perhaps accompanied by some VFR cigs. -Stalley && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 62 42 57 36 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 68 41 59 33 49 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 60 39 56 36 44 / 5 0 0 5 0 Denton 61 40 56 34 47 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 61 39 56 36 46 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dallas 62 42 58 38 49 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 64 40 58 36 47 / 0 0 0 5 0 Corsicana 67 40 58 37 48 / 0 0 0 5 0 Temple 70 41 61 35 51 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 63 41 56 32 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 05/26