FXUS64 KFWD 240758

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
158 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2020

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1250 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2020/
/Through Tuesday/

A plume of isentropic ascent is contributing to scattered elevated
showers across portions of Central and East Texas as of midnight.
This activity is rooted up around 600mb, above the steepest lapse
rates through the column, and therefore won`t have access to much
of the buoyancy present. As a result, mostly just showers are
expected, with perhaps an isolated lightning strike across our
southeast zones over the next several hours. All of this activity
will exit the area to the east/southeast shortly after daybreak.

Meanwhile, a Pacific front is entering the forecast area from the
west, identifiable by a WSW wind shift and significantly lower
dewpoints. This boundary will make eastward progress through the
day, as its parent surface low located in Oklahoma drifts east
accordingly. The arrival of drier air will scour low-level
moisture, and skies will continue a clearing trend with some
mid/high clouds still present through midday. The one exception
will be our northeastern zones where some moisture will wrap
around the back side of the departing low, causing overcast skies
to linger through much of the day. Otherwise, the sharp pressure
gradient associated with the deep surface low will result in a
blustery day for most of the area with sustained winds around 20
mph and some gusts around 30 mph. This is pretty marginal for a
Wind Advisory, and will hold off on issuing one at this time.

The surface low will continue occluding, while its true cold
front overtakes the Pacific front boundary late in the day. This
will veer winds more northwesterly, but the near neutral
temperature advection will make its passage rather unnoticeable.
By this evening, winds will lessen as the pressure gradient
relaxes and the surface low moves away to the northeast.

A second strong shortwave will dive southeastward towards Texas
tonight, sending a secondary stronger cold front through the area
early Tuesday. The cold advection behind this front will be more
noticeable, and it keep Tuesday`s highs 5-10 degrees cooler than
Mnoday`s. Meager moisture will be present following the passage of
Monday`s system, but enough mid-level moisture could still be
present for some cloud cover to exist during the day.



/Mid Week Through Next Weekend/

The mid week period will start off feeling like Winter and be
quite windy and chilly. As the initial system moves rapidly off to
the northeast, another strong mid level impulse arrives in it`s
wake. This second impulse will help to amplify the larger longwave
trough centered over the Midwest and Plains. Luckily, the moisture
profile in the thermodynamic environment will be quite dry in the
low levels with the better elevated frontogenesis and lift
remaining north of the Red River Valley up into Eastern Oklahoma
and the Ozarks. This will allow a much deeper front up through
850mb to pass southward across the area with 850mb temperatures
of -5 to -10 Deg C across much of the area. After lows Wednesday
morning fall into the 30s and lower 40s, highs will struggle to
rise into the 40s with the exception of Central Texas where a few
readings may reach around 50 degrees thanks in part to stronger
insolation and relatively warmer 850mb temperatures.

In addition to the cold temperatures, unidirectional northerly
flow through 850mb upwards to 40 knots will easily transfer this
momentum to the surface with gusty north winds of 20 to 30 mph.
Wind chills will begin in the 20s Wednesday morning, before winds
gradually diminish in the afternoon, as cold Canadian high pressure
slides gradually in from West TX.

With clear skies, and the surface decoupling from the stronger low
level flow above, Thursday morning will be the coldest of the week
with most areas well below freezing and abundant frost across the
area. As the cold surface highs progressively shifts east of the
area by Thursday afternoon, plentiful sunshine and the arriving
of modest southwest winds 10 to 15 mph will allow for quite the
diurnal recovery in temperatures back into the mid 50s to lower
60s. The moderation trends will continue as we end the week and
move into next weekend, as the deep cyclonic flow overhead dampens
in response to the deep mid level low moving northeast across the
Great Lakes and toward Hudson Bay Canada.

By the weekend, shortwave mid level ridging and height rises will
result in broad subsidence and Spring-like high temperatures well
up into the 60s and even into the lower 70s for a few areas.
During this time, a new system will be organizing along or just
off the West Coast of WA/OR/and CA. By the end of the weekend,
this system digging across the Desert Southwest will allow for
flow aloft to orient southwesterly, while low level southerly flow
increases moving toward the end of the weekend into early next.
After a dry week into much of next weekend, it appears an unsettled
pattern return for early next week with increasing rain and
convective chances. After all of the rain the first half February,
it should be a nice reprieve this next week to allow soils to
continue drying out before next substantial rainfall hits towards
the end of the month.



.AVIATION... /Issued 1250 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2020/
/06z TAFs/

While IFR conditions exist across the Metroplex with MVFR at
Waco, a rapid improvement to VFR will occur over the next few
hours as dry air filters into the area from the west. All
precipitation has shifted east of the TAF sites as of 07z, and all
airports should remain rain-free through the period. Some
lingering mid/upper-level VFR cigs could linger through the rest
of the day, along with perhaps FEW/SCT clouds around 4 kft in
North Texas, as moisture wraps around the back side of the
exiting low pressure system.

Otherwise, the main concern through period will be the potential
for some crosswind issues later this morning and early afternoon.
A Pacific front will move through all TAF sites over the next few
hours, veering winds to the west. Westerly winds around 20 kts
with gusts as high as 30 kts will exist for a few hours around
midday before the passage of a cold front shifts winds more
northwesterly. They will lessen in speed this evening to around 10
kts after 00z. A secondary cold front will push through early
Tuesday morning, veering winds to the NNE, perhaps accompanied by
some VFR cigs.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    62  42  57  36  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                68  41  59  33  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               60  39  56  36  44 /   5   0   0   5   0
Denton              61  40  56  34  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            61  39  56  36  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              62  42  58  38  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             64  40  58  36  47 /   0   0   0   5   0
Corsicana           67  40  58  37  48 /   0   0   0   5   0
Temple              70  41  61  35  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       63  41  56  32  48 /   0   0   0   0   0





NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion