DFW FORECAST DISCUSSION
000 FXUS64 KFWD 180525 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1225 AM CDT Sun Apr 18 2021 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Sunday Night/ High-based precipitation has ended across the area with mid/upper- level cloud decks beginning to rapidly erode. Clearing skies and a light north wind will allow for efficient cooling over the next few hours and most areas should observe morning lows in the 40s with some upper 30s in our northwest. A north breeze of 10-15 mph will persist through today with steadily clearing skies, and greater insolation should allow highs to climb about 10 degrees higher than yesterday despite weak cold advection at the surface. Highs should mostly be in the mid/upper 60s with a few 70s possible, making for a rather pleasant Sunday. A surface high will park itself over the Southern Plains by this evening causing winds to become light and variable. Another round of favorable radiational cooling should allow for a repeat of 40-degree lows heading into Monday morning. -Stalley && .LONG TERM... /Issued 210 PM CDT Sat Apr 17 2021/ /Sunday Night Onward/ As a new work week begins, overall precipitation free conditions are expected as the region remains moisture starved. Monday morning will begin in the 40s with southerly winds returning across the region. By the afternoon, winds will become southwesterly in response to leeside surface pressure falls, leading to highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A cold front is slated to move through the region Tuesday, with little available moisture and a lack of surface convergence, this frontal passage appears to remain precipitation free. The main impacts from Tuesday`s front will be the cool temperatures that will settle in across the region. Tuesday`s high temperatures will remain in the upper 50s to 60s across North Texas, with 70s expected across Central Texas given the later timing of the front. Tuesday night, temperatures are likely to dip into the 30s throughout much of the region. In fact, can`t rule out a few spots dropping to the freezing mark along and west of US 281. In addition, the development of frost will threaten any vegetation that may be sensitive to the cold temperatures. Fortunately, the near freezing and frosty conditions will be short-lived as temperatures begin to increase the rest of the week. Southerly winds will once again return by Wednesday evening, pushing temperatures into the 60s and 70s Thursday, followed by 70s and 80s the rest of the week. A potent system will be moving across the Rockies late next week, impacting North and Central Texas on Friday. There are still some differences in the models regarding the overall timing and thermodynamic profiles across the region, but given the time of the year and the synoptic setup, we`ll continue to assess the severe weather potential as we approach the latter half of next week. Hernandez && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /06z TAFs/ VFR will prevail through the period with steadily diminishing mid/high cloud cover. A north wind around 8-12 kts will persist today before becoming light and variable this evening. By midnight, a light south/southwest wind should resume which will continue into Monday. -Stalley && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 46 68 46 74 51 / 5 0 0 0 10 Waco 44 67 44 71 49 / 20 0 0 5 10 Paris 41 65 41 71 46 / 5 0 0 0 5 Denton 39 66 39 72 46 / 5 0 0 0 10 McKinney 41 67 41 72 47 / 5 0 0 0 10 Dallas 47 69 47 74 51 / 5 0 0 0 10 Terrell 43 66 41 71 47 / 10 0 0 0 10 Corsicana 44 67 44 71 49 / 20 0 0 5 10 Temple 43 67 42 71 48 / 20 5 0 10 10 Mineral Wells 40 67 40 73 45 / 10 0 0 5 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$