DFW FORECAST DISCUSSION
000 FXUS64 KFWD 131840 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 140 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020 .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Friday/ Dangerous heat continues to be the highlight of the short term period as an upper ridge remains planted over the area. Morning convection in the northeast has dissipated, but any residual outflow boundary could be a focus for isolated shower/storm development this afternoon, similar to yesterday. Otherwise, temperatures will soar into the upper 90s to 108 with the hottest locales in the west. Overnight, an upper level disturbance will move along the eastern periphery of the upper high centered to our west. This feature will likely spur another overnight MCS to our northeast. As the complex moves to the southeast during the pre-dawn hours Friday morning, a few showers and storms along its outflow may make their way into our northeast counties. The best chances for showers and thunderstorms will generally be northeast of a Gainesville to Canton line. Severe weather is not anticipated, but gusty winds, brief heavy rain, and frequent lightning will be possible with any storms. Showers and storms will linger through Friday morning, but should come to an end by midday. High temperatures were bumped up a bit Friday afternoon as southwest flow just above the surface should allow compressional warming to take place. Highs are expected to top out at 105 and above for many locations on Friday and Saturday. Therefore, the Excessive Heat Warning will be extended further east to encompass these areas. With the hottest temperatures of the year set to occur this week, heat safety will be of the utmost importance. Take extra precautions to avoid heat-related illnesses if you plan on spending time outdoors. With minimum relative humidities near 20-25%, breezy afternoon winds, and hot temperatures, an elevated threat for grassfires will continue through the end of the week. Barnes && .LONG TERM... /Issued 306 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020/ /Friday Night through Wednesday/ Strong upper ridging will remain in place on Friday but will begin a westward shift by Friday night through the weekend. This will allow northerly flow aloft to become established across the Southern Plains and will open the door for a weak front to slide southward over the weekend. It`ll continue to be hot both Saturday and Sunday with highs above 100 degrees in most locations. The aforementioned weak front will slide south toward the Red River on Saturday and may actually be accompanied by a period of compressional warming ahead of its arrival. This could send temp upward from the current forecast of 102-104 degrees. A mid level disturbance will move through the Southern Plains on Sunday and will give the front an additional southward push. Right now it looks like Sunday will be mostly dry, although an isolated storm isn`t completely out of the question. If any storms do develop on Sunday, they would most certainly be accompanied by a wind threat. Rain chances will creep upward on Sunday night into Monday as the ridge continues its westward retreat. Moisture should be sufficient for at least widely scattered showers/storms, but we won`t go any higher than 20-30% on PoPs at this time. Northerly flow should remain in place for much of next week which will keep temperatures back down closer to seasonal norms or a few degrees below. Dunn && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /18Z TAFs/ VFR is expected at all TAF sites through the valid TAF period. Southerly winds near 10-15 knots will prevail. Any morning convection should remain north and northeast of D10 terminals, but may impact Bonham arrivals through midday Friday. Barnes && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 103 82 105 82 104 / 5 5 5 0 5 Waco 104 79 104 80 105 / 0 0 0 0 5 Paris 98 77 98 76 98 / 20 20 20 5 5 Denton 104 81 106 81 103 / 5 5 10 0 5 McKinney 103 81 104 80 103 / 5 10 10 0 5 Dallas 104 82 105 82 104 / 5 5 5 0 5 Terrell 103 78 104 79 102 / 5 10 10 0 5 Corsicana 103 78 102 80 102 / 5 5 5 0 5 Temple 104 77 103 78 104 / 0 0 0 0 5 Mineral Wells 105 78 107 79 104 / 0 0 5 5 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for TXZ091>095-102>107- 117>123-130>135-141-143>148-157>162-174-175. Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Friday for TXZ100-101-115- 116-129. && $$ 18/24