FXUS64 KFWD 200018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
718 PM CDT Sun Sep 19 2021

...New Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 614 PM CDT Sun Sep 19 2021/
/Through Monday Night/

Tonight will be generally quiet. Overnight lows will range in the
60s and 70s with southerly winds generally 5-15 mph. No rain
chances through tonight, so any remnant precipitation from the
afternoon pop-ups will wane by sunset. The main concern with this
forecast update is the return of triple-digit temperatures for
Monday afternoon. Breezy southwesterly winds and subsequent
compressional warming of incoming air will allow temperatures to
warm up to the mid/upper 90s east of I-35, and up into the triple
digits for a good portion of areas along and west of the I-35
corridor. The increased temperatures, limited relative humidity
values, and the recent dry spell could create an elevated fire
weather threat for tomorrow afternoon. Caution should be exercised
with any outdoor activities that could produce fire starts.

Heat safety will be a necessary headline for the afternoon hours,
especially for the northwestern region where there is currently a
Heat Advisory in place for tomorrow afternoon. Tips to remain cool
in the heat are to drink plenty of water, take breaks in cooler air
or shade, avoid extended periods outside, and remembering to always
look for children or pets in the backseat of cars before leaving
them. Always look before you lock! As of this forecast update, no
changes to the Heat Advisory area have been made. Any future
changes, if needed, will be addressed in the upcoming updates.

Thankfully, the heat is very short-lived. As the 500 mb ridge
dissipates by the end of the short term period, a trough will
enter from the west and usher a highly-anticipated cold front
closer to North/Central Texas, which will be discussed in more
detail in the long term forecast discussion.



.LONG TERM... /Issued 226 PM CDT Sun Sep 19 2021/
/Monday Night Onward/

The highly-anticipated cold front will be knocking at our doorstep
Monday night. By daybreak Tuesday, the front will likely have swept
through much of North Texas. A few showers and thunderstorms may
accompany the front Tuesday morning, generally north of I-20 and
east of I-35. However, any activity will be contending with drier
air, resulting in fairly isolated coverage through midday. Tuesday
afternoon, showers and storms will slightly increase in coverage as
the front continues southward into Central Texas. Severe weather is
not expected, but a few robust updrafts arent entirely out of the
question. Gusty winds and frequent lightning will be the primary

Winds will become breezy behind the front as it sweeps through the
area, with wind speeds between 15 and 25 mph and gusts near 30 mph.
The breezy north winds should hinder daytime heating on Tuesday,
with many locations across North Texas likely experiencing their
high temperatures Tuesday morning. A pleasantly cool morning will
kick off the first day of fall on Wednesday, with temperatures
bottoming out in the 50s to low 60s. Cooler weather will continue
through late-week, with a gradual warm up expected through the
weekend. High temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s will return
to the mid 80s to low 90s by Sunday. Despite the return of southerly
flow during the middle of the week, drier air is here to stay
through at least next weekend, resulting in cool mornings in the 50s
to mid 60s.



/00Z TAFs/

VFR will prevail through the period with light/var winds this
evening becoming southerly on Monday. Ahead of an approaching cold
front, winds will veer more south-southwest and increase to around
15 kt during the afternoon. Winds will diminish during the evening
with FROPA expected early Tuesday morning. No significant aviation
concerns expected at this time.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    74 100  74  84  59 /   0   0  10  20   0
Waco                73  99  74  90  61 /   0   0   0  20   0
Paris               70  95  71  83  57 /   0   0  10  30   5
Denton              71 100  69  81  54 /   0   0  10  20   0
McKinney            71  98  71  83  57 /   0   0  10  20   0
Dallas              76 100  75  84  62 /   0   0   5  20   0
Terrell             71  97  72  85  57 /   0   0   5  20   0
Corsicana           73  98  74  89  59 /   0   0   0  20   5
Temple              71  99  73  93  59 /   0   0   0  20   5
Mineral Wells       69 102  69  81  54 /   0   0  10  10   0


Heat Advisory from 2 PM to 7 PM CDT Monday for TXZ100-101-115-



NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion