DFW FORECAST DISCUSSION
000 FXUS64 KFWD 200018 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 718 PM CDT Sun Sep 19 2021 ...New Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /Issued 614 PM CDT Sun Sep 19 2021/ /Through Monday Night/ Tonight will be generally quiet. Overnight lows will range in the 60s and 70s with southerly winds generally 5-15 mph. No rain chances through tonight, so any remnant precipitation from the afternoon pop-ups will wane by sunset. The main concern with this forecast update is the return of triple-digit temperatures for Monday afternoon. Breezy southwesterly winds and subsequent compressional warming of incoming air will allow temperatures to warm up to the mid/upper 90s east of I-35, and up into the triple digits for a good portion of areas along and west of the I-35 corridor. The increased temperatures, limited relative humidity values, and the recent dry spell could create an elevated fire weather threat for tomorrow afternoon. Caution should be exercised with any outdoor activities that could produce fire starts. Heat safety will be a necessary headline for the afternoon hours, especially for the northwestern region where there is currently a Heat Advisory in place for tomorrow afternoon. Tips to remain cool in the heat are to drink plenty of water, take breaks in cooler air or shade, avoid extended periods outside, and remembering to always look for children or pets in the backseat of cars before leaving them. Always look before you lock! As of this forecast update, no changes to the Heat Advisory area have been made. Any future changes, if needed, will be addressed in the upcoming updates. Thankfully, the heat is very short-lived. As the 500 mb ridge dissipates by the end of the short term period, a trough will enter from the west and usher a highly-anticipated cold front closer to North/Central Texas, which will be discussed in more detail in the long term forecast discussion. Prater && .LONG TERM... /Issued 226 PM CDT Sun Sep 19 2021/ /Monday Night Onward/ The highly-anticipated cold front will be knocking at our doorstep Monday night. By daybreak Tuesday, the front will likely have swept through much of North Texas. A few showers and thunderstorms may accompany the front Tuesday morning, generally north of I-20 and east of I-35. However, any activity will be contending with drier air, resulting in fairly isolated coverage through midday. Tuesday afternoon, showers and storms will slightly increase in coverage as the front continues southward into Central Texas. Severe weather is not expected, but a few robust updrafts arent entirely out of the question. Gusty winds and frequent lightning will be the primary hazards. Winds will become breezy behind the front as it sweeps through the area, with wind speeds between 15 and 25 mph and gusts near 30 mph. The breezy north winds should hinder daytime heating on Tuesday, with many locations across North Texas likely experiencing their high temperatures Tuesday morning. A pleasantly cool morning will kick off the first day of fall on Wednesday, with temperatures bottoming out in the 50s to low 60s. Cooler weather will continue through late-week, with a gradual warm up expected through the weekend. High temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s will return to the mid 80s to low 90s by Sunday. Despite the return of southerly flow during the middle of the week, drier air is here to stay through at least next weekend, resulting in cool mornings in the 50s to mid 60s. Barnes && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00Z TAFs/ VFR will prevail through the period with light/var winds this evening becoming southerly on Monday. Ahead of an approaching cold front, winds will veer more south-southwest and increase to around 15 kt during the afternoon. Winds will diminish during the evening with FROPA expected early Tuesday morning. No significant aviation concerns expected at this time. Dunn && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 74 100 74 84 59 / 0 0 10 20 0 Waco 73 99 74 90 61 / 0 0 0 20 0 Paris 70 95 71 83 57 / 0 0 10 30 5 Denton 71 100 69 81 54 / 0 0 10 20 0 McKinney 71 98 71 83 57 / 0 0 10 20 0 Dallas 76 100 75 84 62 / 0 0 5 20 0 Terrell 71 97 72 85 57 / 0 0 5 20 0 Corsicana 73 98 74 89 59 / 0 0 0 20 5 Temple 71 99 73 93 59 / 0 0 0 20 5 Mineral Wells 69 102 69 81 54 / 0 0 10 10 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 2 PM to 7 PM CDT Monday for TXZ100-101-115- 116-129. && $$