DFW FORECAST DISCUSSION
000 FXUS64 KFWD 312337 AAA AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 637 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2020 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: No major changes needed to the previous forecast. A precipitation-free cold front is still expected to slide through most of the area by daybreak Sunday. Blustery conditions can be expected after sunrise Sunday with wind speeds of 10 to 15 mph with gusts to near 25 mph. Otherwise, high clouds will slowly diminish as flow aloft becomes more northwesterly. Temperatures on Sunday will remain below normal values with highs predominantly in the 60s with a few 70s across Central Texas. Bain Previous Discussion: /This Afternoon Through Sunday/ A pretty nice afternoon shaping up today with highs in the mid- upper 60s currently with south winds 10 to 15 mph under mostly sunny skies. We still are forecasting highs by mid-late afternoon to top out in the 70s generally west of I-35/35W in the north and west of Highway 6 across Central Texas. Areas further east will see cooler values in the 60s later today. A strong shortwave disturbance will approach from the northwest and flatten our weak upper ridge this evening, then move across the area overnight and Monday morning, before exiting the region later Sunday afternoon. This disturbance will provide support to a cold front currently diving southward across the Central High Plains of western KS/eastern Co. We`ll likely see a pre-frontal surface trough arrive after midnight in the north and into Central Texas just before sunrise Sunday. The true cold front and it`s associated gusty north winds/cooler temperatures will arrive across the Red River during the pre-dawn hours, the I-20/30 corridors by sunrise, and then Central Texas mid-late morning Sunday. North winds 15-20 mph with gusts to between 25-30 mph will be driven by low level CAA and a tight surface pressure gradient in advance of a 1035mb high pressure center dropping south across the TX/OK Panhandles and Northern Oklahoma on Sunday. With the atmospheric column likely to stay dry, warm, and stable below 500mb, I only expect scattered to broken high clouds with possibly some high level virga. These high cloud decks in the morning should transit south and east with the mid level shortwave during the afternoon hours. This will allow enough insolation for temperatures to still into the 60s areawide, with a few highs making it to around 70 across the lower Brazos and Trinity River Valleys of Central Texas. The time change and an earlier sunset Sunday will help northerly wind speeds decouple late in the afternoon to between 10 to 15 mph. 05/ && .LONG TERM... /Issued 155 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2020/ /Sunday night and beyond/ A cool and crisp night is expected across North and Central TX Sunday night with light winds and mostly clear skies. This will warrant overnight low temps in the mid/upper 30s to near 40 degrees. South winds return on Monday, with the exception of the southeast where winds will remain from the northeast most of the day. The afternoon high temperatures will stay in the 60s areawide. A warming trend is expected the rest of the week as a surface high pressure moves to our east. Near or slightly above normal temperatures are in the forecast, with highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s/50s. While we keep the dry weather pattern over us, the south winds will start to bring some gulf moisture northward later in the week. Not much has changed in terms of the potential for a pattern change late weekend or early next week. Long range models continue to suggest a longwave trough coming from the Rockies into the Southern/Central Plains which could bring our next chance for precipitation after next weekend. Sanchez && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00 UTC TAF Cycle/ Concerns---Wind shift and non-convective low level wind shear. VFR will prevail with cirrus expected to slowly thin through the TAF cycle. A cold front...currently near a CDS to AVK line...will advance southward and move through D10 TAFs between 5-7 UTC, which is a little faster than previous thinking. FROPA is expected at Waco around 10 UTC. I don`t expect the windshift to be very sharp and it`ll likely take several hours for southerly flow to become more northerly. No precipitation is expected. An inversion will set up and keep surface winds calm initially with flow increasing to around 25-30 knots aloft. This could result in some non- convective low level wind shear, but the magnitudes appear too marginal to include in the TAF at this juncture. After sunrise Sunday, north to northeast surface winds will increase between 12 and 16 knots, with gusts as high as 25 knots. Bain && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 48 65 38 64 43 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 47 68 38 66 40 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 45 61 36 61 39 / 0 0 0 0 0 Denton 44 65 34 65 39 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 45 64 35 63 40 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dallas 50 66 41 66 45 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 45 65 36 63 39 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 48 67 39 66 42 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 46 69 38 67 39 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 45 65 35 68 38 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$