FXUS64 KFWD 180525

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1225 AM CDT Sun Apr 18 2021

...New Short Term, Aviation...

/Through Sunday Night/

High-based precipitation has ended across the area with mid/upper-
level cloud decks beginning to rapidly erode. Clearing skies and a
light north wind will allow for efficient cooling over the next
few hours and most areas should observe morning lows in the 40s
with some upper 30s in our northwest. A north breeze of 10-15 mph
will persist through today with steadily clearing skies, and
greater insolation should allow highs to climb about 10 degrees
higher than yesterday despite weak cold advection at the surface.
Highs should mostly be in the mid/upper 60s with a few 70s
possible, making for a rather pleasant Sunday. A surface high
will park itself over the Southern Plains by this evening causing
winds to become light and variable. Another round of favorable
radiational cooling should allow for a repeat of 40-degree lows
heading into Monday morning.



.LONG TERM... /Issued 210 PM CDT Sat Apr 17 2021/
/Sunday Night Onward/

As a new work week begins, overall precipitation free conditions
are expected as the region remains moisture starved. Monday
morning will begin in the 40s with southerly winds returning
across the region. By the afternoon, winds will become
southwesterly in response to leeside surface pressure falls,
leading to highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A cold front is
slated to move through the region Tuesday, with little available
moisture and a lack of surface convergence, this frontal passage
appears to remain precipitation free.

The main impacts from Tuesday`s front will be the cool
temperatures that will settle in across the region. Tuesday`s high
temperatures will remain in the upper 50s to 60s across North
Texas, with 70s expected across Central Texas given the later
timing of the front. Tuesday night, temperatures are likely to dip
into the 30s throughout much of the region. In fact, can`t rule
out a few spots dropping to the freezing mark along and west of US
281. In addition, the development of frost will threaten any
vegetation that may be sensitive to the cold temperatures.

Fortunately, the near freezing and frosty conditions will be
short-lived as temperatures begin to increase the rest of the
week. Southerly winds will once again return by Wednesday evening,
pushing temperatures into the 60s and 70s Thursday, followed by
70s and 80s the rest of the week.

A potent system will be moving across the Rockies late next week,
impacting North and Central Texas on Friday. There are still some
differences in the models regarding the overall timing and
thermodynamic profiles across the region, but given the time of
the year and the synoptic setup, we`ll continue to assess the
severe weather potential as we approach the latter half of next



/06z TAFs/

VFR will prevail through the period with steadily diminishing
mid/high cloud cover. A north wind around 8-12 kts will persist
today before becoming light and variable this evening. By
midnight, a light south/southwest wind should resume which will
continue into Monday.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    46  68  46  74  51 /   5   0   0   0  10
Waco                44  67  44  71  49 /  20   0   0   5  10
Paris               41  65  41  71  46 /   5   0   0   0   5
Denton              39  66  39  72  46 /   5   0   0   0  10
McKinney            41  67  41  72  47 /   5   0   0   0  10
Dallas              47  69  47  74  51 /   5   0   0   0  10
Terrell             43  66  41  71  47 /  10   0   0   0  10
Corsicana           44  67  44  71  49 /  20   0   0   5  10
Temple              43  67  42  71  48 /  20   5   0  10  10
Mineral Wells       40  67  40  73  45 /  10   0   0   5  10




NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion