FXUS64 KFWD 201035

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
535 AM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

...New Short Term, Aviation...


No significant changes to the forecast through Monday. Today will
be hot with a little additional humidity compared to yesterday.
Highs in the mid/upper 90s will result in heat indices near 100
areawide this afternoon. The cold front still looks like it will
move through North Texas tomorrow afternoon accompanied by an
increase in showers and thunderstorms. Strong instability will
support a few severe storms with mainly a damaging wind threat.



Previous Discussion:
/Overnight through Monday/

Another clear and warm night will occur across North and Central
Texas as we remain primarily under the influence of strong ridging
centered to our west. Overnight lows will only fall into the mid
70s across most of the region. Weak mid tropospheric flow has
generally been unable to tap into appreciable moisture and a
relatively dry boundary layer has left most of the region warm but
lacking the higher humidity we saw earlier in the week. That will
begin to change on Sunday as our ridge axis shifts westward to
some extent and a shortwave trough digs into the Northern Plains
and Great Lakes region. This will send a cold front southward
through the Plains and induce a poleward mass response across
Texas due to falling pressures in the Plains. These southerly
winds will tap into a moisture rich western Gulf of Mexico where
buoy and oil platform observations indicate dewpoints in the upper
70s. This higher moisture is already spreading into Deep South
Texas and the Coastal Bend and will gradually spread northward
into our southeastern counties through the day Sunday.  Sunday
should be precipitation free across the region although some
scattered storms may develop across Southeast Texas during the
afternoon. It`ll be hot with high temps in the mid/upper 90s and
heat indices in the 99-102 degree range.

Boundary layer moisture will continue to increase particularly
east of I-35 Sunday night into early Monday as the cold front
moves through Oklahoma and approaches our northern counties during
the late morning hours. There continues to be a fairly
significant timing difference between the global guidance and the
higher resolution models with respect to the front. This will
clearly have implications on the temperature forecast as a slower
front will allow temperatures to quickly climb ahead of FROPA.
Latest forecast will trend toward the NAM/TTU WRF with respect to
timing (newest NBM guidance is slower now too) and we`ll keep
high temperatures in the lower 90s across most of the region with
mid/upper 90s across our southern counties. As the front moves
into an increasingly unstable airmass, thunderstorms should
develop and increase in coverage through the late afternoon and
evening hours particularly along and north of I-20. Meager lapse
rates and weak flow through 700 mb should limit the severe threat,
but we still can`t rule out a few severe wind gusts given the
strong instability. Storm chances will continue into Monday
evening as the front pushes into Central Texas.



.LONG TERM... /Issued 336 AM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021/
/Tuesday onward/

Some showers and a few thunderstorms may be lingering across parts
of the region on Tuesday morning following the Monday night cold
front passage, but expecting a generally dry day on Tuesday.
Temperatures will be much below normal with highs likely only to
be in the 80s across the region. Across North TX, dewpoints may
manage to drop into the lower 60s or even upper 50s, which will
make for one, very pleasant day. Unfortunately for Central Texas,
dewpoints seem likely to stay in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

By mid-week, temperatures will quickly rebound to near to slightly
above seasonal normals as the mid-level ridge across the
Southwest builds back into the Great Plains, placing North/Central
TX underneath the eastern periphery. This will lead to hot
weather, with Friday likely to be the hottest day.

For next weekend, the global models are beginning to show a
possibility of another deep trough digging across the Northern and
Central Plains, which may drive a cold front into North/Central TX
by Saturday. There has not been tremendous run-to-run consistency
in the models, but there is probably an elevated risk at this
point for increasing rain chances and potentially below normal
temperatures as well by next weekend.



/12Z TAFs/

VFR will continue through late evening with southerly winds
increasing to 15 to 20 this afternoon. By tonight, low level
moisture will increase ahead of an approaching cold front with
MVFR cigs expected to develop and spread northward. We`ll include
BKN025 at all sites after midnight. FROPA is expected just beyond
the current valid TAF period with scattered thunderstorms likely
around all sites through evening.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    97  78  91  66  85 /   0   0  70  70   0
Waco                96  77  94  68  83 /   0   0  40  80  10
Paris               94  75  87  62  82 /   0   0  90  70   5
Denton              96  75  87  61  84 /   0   0  80  60   0
McKinney            95  76  89  63  83 /   0   0  80  70   0
Dallas              97  79  91  67  85 /   0   0  70  70   0
Terrell             95  75  90  64  82 /   0   0  70  80   5
Corsicana           95  77  92  68  84 /   0   0  60  80  10
Temple              95  76  94  67  84 /   0   5  30  80  10
Mineral Wells       98  75  89  62  83 /   0   0  60  50   0




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