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Current Conditions

Dallas/Fort Worth Airport (KDFW)
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Mostly Cloudy and
Breezy

57°F
 Cool 
Dewpoint:37°F
Humidity: 47%
Pressure: 29.98 inHg
Wind: S 23 mph
Wind Chill: None
Heat Index: None
Updated: Jan 21 2019, 1:53 pm CST

7-Day Forecast

Today Tonight Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
SSE 20-25 G35
Day2Today
Mostly sunny with a high of 58. Windy with a south southeast wind 20 to 25 mph. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph.


Windy
S 20-25 G35
Day2Tonight
A 20 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy with a low of 48. Windy with a south wind 20 to 25 mph. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. Wind chill values between 39 and 41.

20%

Chance Rain
S 15-20 G25
Day3Tuesday
A 20 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy with a high of 62. Windy with a south wind 15 to 20 mph. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy and cold with a low of 31. Windy with a north northwest wind 20 to 25 mph. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph.

20%

Chance Rain
NNW 15-20
Day5Wednesday
Mostly sunny with a high of 48. North northwest wind 15 to 20 mph.
Wednesday Night
Clear with a low of 34. South southwest wind 5 to 10 mph.


Mostly Sunny
SSW 10-15
Day7Thursday
Mostly sunny with a high of 56. South southwest wind 10 to 15 mph.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear and cold with a low of 23. North northeast wind 15 to 20 mph.


Mostly Sunny
S 10-15
Day9Friday
Mostly sunny with a high of 46. South wind 10 to 15 mph.
Friday Night
Mostly clear and cold with a low of 27. South wind 10 to 15 mph.


Mostly Sunny
WNW 15-20
Day11Saturday
Partly cloudy with a high of 53. West northwest wind 15 to 20 mph.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear with a low of 33. North northwest wind 5 to 10 mph.


Partly Cloudy
SW 10-15
Day13Sunday
Sunny with a high of 55. Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph.
Sunday Night
Clear with a low of 35. South southeast wind 5 to 10 mph.


Sunny
58 48 62 | 31 48 | 34 56 | 23 46 | 27 53 | 33 55 | 35
Jan 21 Jan 21 Jan 22 Jan 23 Jan 24 Jan 25 Jan 26 Jan 27
Updated: 9:14 AM - Mon, Jan 21, 2019 Valid: Dallas/Fort Worth Airport (KDFW)

Forecast Discussion

433
FXUS64 KFWD 211739
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1139 AM CST Mon Jan 21 2019

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR conditions prevail across North and Central Texas at this time
with southerly winds 15 to 20 kt. Some high clouds will continue
to stream across the region through the afternoon, but VFR will
prevail. Surface observations show that dewpoints have climbed
about 10 degrees in 3 hours across southeast Texas where SCT/BKN
cumulus clouds are noted on satellite. This moisture will continue
to be pulled northward through this evening as a 50 kt low level
jet develops. Widespread MVFR cigs are expected to overspread the
region a few hours after sunset and will likely prevail through
much of the day Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front. The
front will move through the Metroplex during the late afternoon
hours and we`ll show a wind shift in the extended portion of the
DFW TAF around 23Z. While there may be some intermittent drizzle
and IFR cigs a little farther east during the day Tuesday, we
think this should stay east of the major airports. Scattered
showers are likely to develop along the front as it moves through
the Metroplex with the bulk of any precipitation remaining to the
east of the major airports. Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt with
higher gusts will prevail behind the front.

Dunn

&&

.UPDATE... /Issued 1042 AM CST Mon Jan 21 2019/
Water vapor imagery shows a stream of high level moisture
spreading from northwest Mexico into the Southern Plains this
morning. This higher cloud cover should thin some through the day,
but we`ll update to mention more clouds than currently forecast.
Otherwise, no significant changes needed to the current forecast.
Southerly winds are mixing down and we`re seeing some gusts in
excess of 25 kt. This will continue through the afternoon.

Dunn

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 312 AM CST Mon Jan 21 2019/
/Today and Tonight/

Mid level height falls in advance of a lead shortwave disturbance
lifting across the High Plains early this morning is already inducing
strong low level warm advection and southeast winds across North
and Central Texas. Scattered-broken mid-high level clouds are
expected today with a shortwave disturbance moving overhead, but
pockets of sunshine will likely be had through afternoon with
highs between 55-65 degrees. Area Vad Wind Profiler/88D winds at
925mb this morning are already southerly at 20-25 knots and will
likely increase to between 35-45 knots across the northwest half of
the CWA by midday. Between the mixing of the strong 925mb flow and
tightening gradient, look for south winds between 15-25 mph with a
few gusts in excess of 30 mph by late morning and continuing into
afternoon. These values will be just below Wind Advisory criteria
and have opted not to issue any wind highlights for the northwest
half of the CWA. One thing for certain is it will not be as windy as
what was experienced this past Saturday. It`s definitely something
to be monitored later this morning if speeds end up being higher
than currently forecast.

A continued tight surface pressure gradient and low level warm
advection tonight will result in continued very breezy conditions
and gusty south winds 15-20 mph. In addition, a semi-mixed
boundary layer with flow of 40-50 knots will draw moisture from
the Gulf of Mexico northward rapidly by early evening into North
and Central Texas. The combination of stratus and gusty south
winds will result in a much more mild and breezy night with lows
staying up between 45-55 degrees across the region.

Lastly, the lead shortwave moving across the Southern Plains and
Ark-La-Tex area overnight will aide in isentropic ascent within
the 925mb-700mb layer enough for some spotty sprinkles by late
evening into the pre-dawn hours, with some scattered areas of
light rain generally across areas along and east of I-35 by
daybreak Tuesday. I chose sprinkles over drizzle with surface
winds remaining strong and ceilings remaining higher than a 1000
feet. Spotty rainfall amounts will be fairly negligible and less
than 0.10", thus do not expect hydrological impacts across the
eastern half of the area. More of a nuisance more than anything.

05/

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 312 AM CST Mon Jan 21 2019/
/Tuesday through Early Next Week/

A shortwave disturbance and a surface cyclone will together move
rapidly east across the Central Plains on Tuesday. An attendant
cold front extending southwest from the surface low will push
steadily southeast, reaching northwest portion of the CWA around
midday Tuesday before clearing the southeastern counties at or
shortly after sunset. Breezy conditions will continue during the
day as southerly winds shift to the northwest with the passage of
the cold front. High temperatures should reach the 60s for most
areas prior to the arrival of the front, with the exception being
the northwest counties where mid and upper 50s will be about as
warm as it gets before the front arrives.

Warm advection showers will be possible during the morning,
mainly east of the Interstate 35 corridor where the better
moisture will be in place. This will also be the case as scattered
showers pop up along the front during the afternoon, with
activity mainly across the eastern and southeastern portion of
the CWA. An isolated thunderstorm cannot be completely ruled out,
but most guidance indicates that deeper convection will be limited
to locations east of the forecast area where better instability
will exist.

Precipitation will initially shift southeast of the area Tuesday
evening, but a secondary band of showers will develop northwest of
the front as another upper trough drops southeast across Mexico
and Southwest Texas. The timing of this second batch of precip
will be mainly after midnight, with the location being along and
south of the I-20 corridor. A few model outliers are indicating
that a brief round of light snow will be possible before activity
shifts southeast of the area Wednesday morning, so it will be
something to keep an eye on. However, at this time guidance is
heavily favoring thermal profiles which would produce all cold
rain, so weather grids will indicate all liquid precip with this
forecast set.

The longwave pattern will evolve into deep upper troughing across
the eastern third of the CONUS beginning Wednesday night and
continuing through the end of the forecast period. This upper air
pattern will keep the region susceptible to multiple shots of
cold air, but lacking with regard to available moisture. Following
the Tuesday front, a brief period of return flow will occur
Wednesday night and early Thursday before the next blast of cold
air arrives. This front will push through late Thursday, bringing
sub-freezing air to most of North and Central Texas Thursday
night. Friday morning lows will range from the mid 20s along the
Red River to right at 32 across the far south, with early morning
wind chills in the teens and lower 20s respectively. Another cold
front will arrive on Saturday, with yet another on Monday, keeping
the cold and dry pattern in place through the early part of next
week.

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 60 52 64 33 48 / 0 30 20 20 5
Waco 62 54 65 35 48 / 0 20 20 40 10
Paris 55 47 60 30 43 / 0 40 60 30 10
Denton 60 50 62 32 48 / 0 30 20 10 5
McKinney 58 50 63 32 46 / 0 30 30 20 5
Dallas 62 54 65 33 47 / 0 30 30 20 5
Terrell 60 51 63 32 46 / 0 30 40 30 10
Corsicana 61 52 63 33 45 / 0 20 40 40 20
Temple 63 53 66 35 48 / 0 10 20 50 10
Mineral Wells 65 50 62 31 48 / 0 10 10 10 0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion

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