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Current Conditions

Dallas/Fort Worth Airport (KDFW)
Clear
Sunny
44°F
 Chilly 
Dewpoint:30°F
Humidity: 58%
Pressure: 30.32 inHg
Wind: NW 10 mph
Wind Chill: 38°F
Heat Index: NA
Updated: Friday, Dec 15, 2017 9:35 am

7-Day Forecast

Today Tonight Saturday Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday
NNW 10-15
Day1Today
Mostly sunny with a high of 58. North northwest wind 10 to 15 mph.


Mostly Sunny
W 5-10
Day2Tonight
Increasing clouds with a low of 37. West wind 5 to 10 mph. Wind chill values as low as 33.


Increasing Clouds
S 15-20 G25
Day3Saturday
Mostly cloudy with a high of 65. Windy with a south wind 15 to 20 mph. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph.
Saturday Night
A 50 percent chance of rain. Cloudy with a low of 43. South southeast wind 10 to 15 mph. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.


Windy
S 0-5
Day5Sunday
Partly cloudy with a high of 69. South wind calm to 5 mph.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy with a low of 46. Northwest wind calm to 5 mph. Winds could gust as high as 10 mph.


Partly Cloudy
W 0-5 G10
Day7Monday
Partly cloudy with a high of 69. West wind calm to 5 mph. Winds could gust as high as 10 mph.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy with a low of 44. Northwest wind calm to 5 mph.


Partly Cloudy
S 0-5
Day9Tuesday
Mostly sunny with a high of 67. South wind calm to 5 mph.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear with a low of 43. South wind calm to 5 mph.


Mostly Sunny
S 5-10
Day11Wednesday
Mostly sunny with a high of 67. South wind 5 to 10 mph.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear with a low of 45. South wind 5 to 10 mph. Winds could gust as high as 15 mph.


Mostly Sunny
SSW 5-10 G20
Day13Thursday
Partly cloudy with a high of 70. South southwest wind 5 to 10 mph. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Thursday Night
Partly cloudy and cold with a low of 30. North wind 20 to 25 mph.


Partly Cloudy
58 37 65 | 43 69 | 46 69 | 44 67 | 43 67 | 45 70 | 30
Dec 15 Dec 15 Dec 16 Dec 17 Dec 18 Dec 19 Dec 20 Dec 21
Updated: 9:23 AM - Fri, Dec 15, 2017 Valid: Dallas/Fort Worth Airport (KDFW)

Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS64 KFWD 151222
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
622 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017


.AVIATION...
VFR through Saturday morning with increasing high clouds
associated with an approaching low pressure system.

A northwest wind less than 12 knots today will become light and
variable around sunset and light southerly during the evening.

79

&&


.SHORT TERM... /Issued 340 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017/
/Today and Tonight/

Surface high pressure will settle over the state today and result
in dry and relatively calm conditions with a northwest wind in
the 5 to 10 mph range. The lighter winds today will keep the fire
threat relatively low even though fine fuels will remain abundant
and afternoon relative humidities will bottom out in the 20s and
lower 30s.

There will be a continuous feed of upper level moisture across
mainly the southern zones today as an upper low currently near
Baja lifts slowly northeast. These clouds will hinder daytime
warming a bit, but temperatures should still reach near seasonal
normals with highs generally in the middle and upper 50s.

High clouds will increase across all of North and Central Texas
tonight as the upper low inches closer. The high clouds should
slow cooling a bit, but a lack of low level moisture return will
still allow temperatures to fall into the 30s overnight.

79

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 340 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017/
/Saturday and Beyond/

The evolution of Saturday`s weather will be influenced primarily
by a small, but rather potent vort max--the remnant shear-axis
left over from a closed upper-low currently pinwheeling about
over the Gulf of California and Sinaloa, Mexico. By late Saturday
morning, this feature will be situated from the Texas Panhandle
and back into the Trans Pecos region of southwest Texas. Deep
southwesterly flow aloft ahead of this system will continue to
pump a surfeit of mid- and high-level moisture across the region,
and this will result in a steadily thickening and lowering veil
of dense cloud cover across North and Central Texas. The mass
response in the lower-levels to the approaching wave will also
help induce some gusty southerly winds, although things look to
remain safely below wind advisory criteria.

While thickening cloud cover will certainly curtail the degree of
insolation on Saturday, stout warm advection induced by the 15-20
mph southerly winds should still allow temperatures to rise into
the lower or possibly mid 60s across the northern half of the
region, with 50s more prevalent across the south. Since it
continues to look like dewpoints will not really begin to surge
northward until Saturday evening, afternoon relative humidity
values from I-20 and north may fall into the 25-35 percent range.
This dry air, coupled with the gusty winds may foster an elevated
or near-critical fire weather threat across this portion of the
region. While highs will be above-normal, we don`t feel a fire
weather watch is necessary at this time with temperatures just a
handful of degrees above climatological values.

By Saturday afternoon, top-down moistening and subsequent
increasing warm advection/isentropic ascent will result in the
development of the first appreciable chances at measurable
precipitation since the beginning of the month across our southern
counties. Forcing for ascent will continue to increase through the
evening hours, and this will spread precip chances across all of
our forecast area overnight. It seems quite likely that locales
east of I-35 will get in on a much-needed wetting rainfall before
this quick-moving system departs the region Sunday morning. While
most of the precipitation is expected to fall as light to moderate
rain showers, enough elevated instability will be present to
foster at least some isolated embedded thunderstorms. The most
vigorous and focused ascent will overspread the southeastern third
of the CWA late Saturday evening-overnight, where intense
frontogenesis may allow a band of moderate to heavy rain to
develop. While overall precipitation amounts of a half an inch or
less are expected, some lucky locations across our southeast could
pick up over an inch of rain by daybreak Sunday.

Drier and subsident air will quickly descend upon the region
Sunday morning which will bring a swift end to precipitation
chances from west-to-east. Another embedded vort lobe may bring
another quick shot at some showers to our southeastern counties
Monday into Tuesday, but moisture looks to be in shorter supply.

Temperatures through Thursday should manage to moderate into the
mid 60s to 70 degrees. The next feature of interest will be a
strong cold front which is set to plow through the region Thursday
evening and overnight. Interestingly, all of the available global
guidance, from the ECMWF to CMC to the GFS show this initial surge
of strong winds and colder air arriving all within about 6 hours
of one another. Some light precipitation appears possible across
our southeast as this front encounters better moisture, but this
will remain of the liquid variety at ground level with
temperatures well above freezing.

While a return to much colder conditions is appearing more likely
towards the end of next week, that`s pretty much where the higher
confidence stops. Agreement among the global guidance regarding
the pertinent positioning and strength of upper-level features
remains extremely volatile (from run-to-run). While several
previous runs of the GFS depicted a deep closed low over Baja
California, this evening`s run has no such feature at all,
replaced instead by robust and amplified ridging along the West
Coast. The ECMWF, on the other hand, has decided that trading
places with the GFS was in store, and is now the only piece of
global guidance to depict a deep cutoff Baja low.

None of this model volatility is all that unexpected considering
the nascent shortwave is still perhaps somewhere over the
Kamchatka Peninsula at this hour, and goes to show that relying
on individual model solutions beyond 7 days in these situations
is extremely unwise. While it`s certainly conceivable that some
wintry precipitation could materialize in the post-frontal airmass
next weekend, it remains nothing more than pure speculation at
this point.

Carlaw

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 57 38 62 45 64 / 0 0 20 60 5
Waco 58 34 55 43 66 / 10 0 60 70 5
Paris 54 33 58 43 60 / 0 0 10 80 10
Denton 55 33 62 44 63 / 0 0 20 60 5
McKinney 55 33 60 44 62 / 0 0 20 70 10
Dallas 57 39 61 45 64 / 0 0 20 70 5
Terrell 57 34 58 43 64 / 0 0 20 90 10
Corsicana 58 36 55 44 64 / 5 0 40 90 10
Temple 58 35 54 44 67 / 10 0 60 70 5
Mineral Wells 57 32 62 42 67 / 0 0 20 50 0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

79/90

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion

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