Pressure: 29.97 inHg
Wind Chill: None
Heat Index: None
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FXUS64 KFWD 171048 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
548 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019
Metroplex: VFR with southeast flow.
Central Texas: morning stratus, afternoon showers possible.
A tropical low along the Texas coast will back the surface winds,
maintaining a significant easterly component the next few days.
The influx of moisture will be more pronounced into Central Texas
where the potential for MVFR ceilings will increase each morning.
Although only patchy stratocu are expected at Waco this morning, a
more uniform deck should arrive around daybreak Wednesday morning.
VFR ceilings will be possible in the Metroplex by Wednesday
afternoon, but the first MVFR stratus intrusion into Dallas/Fort
Worth won`t be until Thursday morning.
The precipitation associated with the tropical feature will expand
in areal coverage with daytime heating. This activity may disrupt
south departures and traffic inbound through the Cedar Creek
cornerpost, but the bulk of the showers and storms should remain
south and east of KACT. VCSH may be needed in the Waco TAF this
afternoon, but the potential is too low to needless complicate the
forecast now. As the tropical feature moves inland, better rain
chances (with embedded thunderstorms) are expected Wednesday, with
Central Texas seeing the greater potential. The main event for all
TAF sites looks to be Thursday and Friday, which is well beyond
the scope of the TAFs.
.SHORT TERM... /Issued 354 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019/
/Today and Tonight/
The meridional ridge that brought unseasonably hot weather to
North and Central Texas the past few days will develop a positive
tilt as a potent shortwave emerges from the Rockies today. When
combined with a tropical low along the Gulf coast, eroding the
ridge from the south, mid-level heights over North and Central
Texas will gradually fall. This process, along with a steady
increase in Gulf moisture, will reduce high temperatures by a few
degrees. Although the extraordinary tropical moisture will remain
confined to the coastal plains, 2-inch precipitable water values
will approach our southeastern boundary today. It will be across
Central and East Texas, where weak flow will encourage the
development of large, lumbering cumulus clouds, that the decrease
in afternoon temperatures will be the most noticeable.
The bulk of the precipitation associated with the tropical feature
will remain within 100-150 miles of its ill-defined center. But
as the boundary warms and its destabilization is enhanced by the
increase in moisture, showers and thunderstorms will develop
deeper inland. At peak heating, scattered activity will primarily
affect areas that are both east of the I-35 corridor and south of
I-20. These tropical showers will produce some downpours, their
duration lengthened by the weak steering flow. The lower storm
bases and maritime tropical air in the sub-cloud layer will reduce
the downburst potential, but gusty winds will accompany the
stronger storms, especially with those precip-loaded cells that
collapse in the weak-shear environment.
As is typical with tropical lows, the nocturnal precipitation will
be confined closer to the core of the system. Our Central and East
Texas counties will remain largely free of rain much of the night.
However, as the feature makes some progress inland, some predawn
showers could reach areas as far north as Temple/Killeen and
.LONG TERM... /Issued 354 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019/
/Wednesday Through Monday/
Cooler and wetter will be the theme mid-late week, particularly
east of I-35. A cut off system that`s been toiling over the
Northwest Gulf of Mexico for several days will slowly migrate
northward across Southeast and East Texas through this coming
weekend. The current rex-block upper ridge that has provided the
well-above normal temperatures the past week will shift further
east across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, while gradual mid
level height falls associated with a Western CONUS longwave trough
spread east across the High Plains, allowing for our Gulf system
to begin its slow migration north. This system will drag some near
max values of precipitable water values northward with it, as
values exceed 2.25 inches across eastern Central Texas as we move
into the late week period. The moist-adiabatic thermodynamic
profiles should allow for tropical warm rain processes at times
across areas in dire need of rain with drought conditions having
reached the D2 or D3 drought categories in parts of Central Texas.
The lowering mid level heights and dissipating subsidence will
combine with increasing cloud cover and periods of convective
rainfall to help lower temperatures toward or even slightly below
seasonal normals, with values ranging from the mid 80s to around
90 degrees Thursday and Friday across the entire area.
The latest Excessive Rainfall Outlooks from WPC in the Marginal-
Slight categories appear reasonable for areas east of I-35 and
generally south of I-30 Wednesday through Friday. Collaboration
was conducted with surrounding offices and WPC on this risk, and
per GEFS and EPS ensemble track projections of this system north-
northeast across East Texas, then eventually the Ark-La-Tex and
Ozarks by this coming weekend, all appears realistic. Though
rainfall won`t be constant, several rounds of efficient rainfall
rates may eventually result in some flooding issues across our
eastern counties despite the thirsty soil conditions being
present. Storm total QPF projections from Wednesday through Friday
night do have values of 2-4" with isolated 5"+ generally along
and east of a Paris, to Corsicana, to Cameron/Thorndale line. Of
course, any shift in the northward track of this system east or
west will have a significant impact on these amounts as we should
see a tight gradient off the west side of this system as noted
through collaboration with our WFO neighbors early this morning.
With these uncertainties in system track and potential QPF, along
with these areas able to take on some rainfall due to current
drought conditions, we will forego any hydrologic watch issuance
for our eastern counties at this time, but continue to monitor
these trends closely as we move through the week. At most, I do
not anticipate widespread flooding or flash flooding at this
point, but certainly can see where isolated instances will occur,
along with potential impacts on Trinity and Sabine tributaries in
particular. On a positive note, the drought and associated fire
weather concerns will at least be temporarily quelled for areas
along and east of I-35. Lastly, I do not expect any threat for
severe weather per the tropical type of thermodynamic profiles. I
Cannot rule out a strong storm or two diurnally with more outer
bands of convection as these areas could see enough instability
and potential shallow inverted-V type profiles for gusty downburst
winds, particularly across our western counties.
A slow-warm up back into the lower-mid 90s is expected this
weekend as the southwest periphery of the Southeast CONUS upper
ridge expands back across Central and South Texas, while the
storm trough in advance of the Western CONUS longwave trough
primarily remains north and west of our area. A cold front will
sag toward the I-40 corridor from the Texas Panhandle into
Oklahoma late Sunday into Monday with increasing southerly low
level flow nocturnally feeding into this boundary. I have
maintained low convective chances as some of this activity could
move into the Red River Valley, while maintaining low
probabilities across Central Texas for potential seabreeze
activity occurring diurnally each day.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 95 75 94 74 89 / 5 0 20 10 50
Waco 94 73 92 73 90 / 20 10 40 30 60
Paris 93 71 92 71 88 / 5 5 10 10 40
Denton 94 73 93 73 89 / 0 0 10 10 40
McKinney 94 73 93 73 89 / 5 0 10 10 50
Dallas 95 76 94 75 89 / 5 0 20 10 50
Terrell 95 74 93 73 88 / 10 0 30 20 50
Corsicana 93 72 90 72 85 / 20 5 40 30 70
Temple 91 72 91 72 90 / 30 20 50 30 70
Mineral Wells 93 70 91 70 89 / 0 0 10 10 40
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
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