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Flood Advisory FLOOD ADVISORY - TARRANT

Current Conditions

Dallas/Fort Worth Airport (KDFW)
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Light Rain
64°F
 Mild 
Dewpoint:62°F
Humidity: 93%
Pressure: 30.08 inHg
Wind: N 15 mph
Wind Chill: None
Heat Index: None
Updated: Sep 26 2018, 8:53 am CDT

7-Day Forecast

Today Tonight Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday Monday Tuesday
N 15-20 G25
Day2Today
A 50 percent chance of showers and storms. Cloudy with a high of 71. Windy with a north wind 15 to 20 mph. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph.

50%

Chance Storms
N 10-15 G25
Day2Tonight
Cloudy with a low of 58. North wind 10 to 15 mph. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph.


Cloudy
N 5-10
Day3Thursday
Partly cloudy with a high of 76. North wind 5 to 10 mph.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear with a low of 62. East southeast wind 5 to 10 mph.


Partly Cloudy
SSE 5-10
Day5Friday
Partly cloudy with a high of 85. South southeast wind 5 to 10 mph.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy with a low of 67. East southeast wind 5 to 10 mph.


Partly Cloudy
E 5-10
Day7Saturday
A 20 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy with a high of 85. East wind 5 to 10 mph.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy with a low of 70. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph.

20%

Chance Rain
SSE 5-10
Day9Sunday
A 20 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy with a high of 85. South southeast wind 5 to 10 mph.
Sunday Night
Mostly cloudy with a low of 70. South southeast wind 5 to 10 mph.

20%

Chance Rain
S 10-15
Day11Monday
A 20 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy with a high of 85. South wind 10 to 15 mph.
Monday Night
Mostly cloudy with a low of 71. South southeast wind 10 to 15 mph.

20%

Chance Rain
SSE 10-15
Day13Tuesday
A 20 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy with a high of 85. South southeast wind 10 to 15 mph.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy with a low of 71. South southeast wind 15 to 20 mph.

20%

Chance Rain
71 58 76 | 62 85 | 67 85 | 70 85 | 70 85 | 71 85 | 71
Sep 26 Sep 26 Sep 27 Sep 28 Sep 29 Sep 30 Oct 1 Oct 2
Updated: 9:37 AM - Wed, Sep 26, 2018 Valid: Dallas/Fort Worth Airport (KDFW)

Forecast Discussion

205
FXUS64 KFWD 261203
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
703 AM CDT Wed Sep 26 2018


.AVIATION...
/12z TAFs/

A cold front has entered the DFW Metroplex as of 12z. Showers and
thunderstorms have increased in coverage in the past hour at the
confluence of the front and a southwestward-moving outflow
boundary. Heavy rain and occasional lightning will impact DFW area
airports through the next 2 hours. In addition, widespread post-
frontal MVFR cigs below 2 kft will prevail through noon, before
lifting above 2 kft or possibly even above 3 kft later this
afternoon and evening. North winds will prevail now that the
front has moved through the Metroplex, and they`ll become
increasingly breezy through this afternoon with gusts over 20 kts
possible. Later tonight, VFR cigs should lower to MVFR for a few
hours before drier air works into the area. This drier air should
cause gradual clearing to occur around daybreak Thursday.

For Waco, southerly winds will prevail before the cold front
arrives around 16-17z. A few showers and storms are expected to
accompany the front`s passage, although likelihood of occurrence
at the airfield itself is too low to introduce any Tempo group for
TSRA at this time. Predominantly MVFR cigs are expected at Waco
through the TAF period which should linger into Thursday morning.

-Stalley

&&


.SHORT TERM... /Issued 330 AM CDT Wed Sep 26 2018/
/Through Tonight/

Our main focus through the short term is today`s cold front along
with associated convective chances throughout the forecast
period.

Morning radar imagery depicts our anticipated cold front moving
through North Texas. As of 3 AM, this boundary was draped roughly
from Cisco to Sherman, moving southeastward around 15 mph. The
front will continue its southward advance over the next several
hours, moving through the DFW metroplex by daybreak, and through
Central Texas later this morning and early this afternoon. In
advance of the front, isolated elevated thunderstorms rooted in
the 850-925mb layer are producing heavy rain east of I-35. Flow
is very weak ahead of the frontal boundary, and due to the very
slow movement of these storms, a heavy rain and localized flood
threat will exist through daybreak. Portions of Hunt and Kaufman
counties have already received as much as 2-3" of rain out of
these cells.

The passage of this cold front will mean the demise of
yesterday`s brief revival of summer, with much cooler, cloudy,
and breezy conditions prevailing today. For North Texas, high
temperatures are likely to occur this morning, with falling or
near-steady temperatures throughout the rest of the day. Post-
frontal stratus and cold advection will hold temperatures in the
60s or low 70s for areas near and north of I-20. To the south, a
few hours of heating should still allow temperatures to climb into
the 80s prior to the arrival of the cooler post-frontal air.
Breezy north winds of 10-20 mph will prevail behind the front with
some higher gusts possible, giving most of the area a crisp taste
of fall.

Regarding rainfall potential today, there will be two main areas
on which to focus. The first will be immediately along and ahead
of the surface cold front, where low-level convergence should be
capable of initiating scattered showers and thunderstorms in a
weakly unstable environment. Depending on the front`s speed, our
southeastern counties have a chance to see a more robust
thunderstorm if the front has not cleared the forecast area by
this afternoon. Surface-based instability ahead of the front could
climb to 1500-2000 J/kg during peak heating, although there`s a
chance the front will have already exited the forecast area to the
southeast before this can occur. In addition, shear will remain
relatively weak, so the organization of stronger thunderstorms
would be fairly unlikely. The second area (and more favorable
one) to watch will be along the 850mb front. The effects of this
boundary can easily be identified this morning, as it is
responsible for the widespread showers and storms in progress from
Lubbock to OKC this morning. A mid-level shortwave plus
convergence along the elevated frontal zone has been more than
sufficient for widespread convection thus far, and this should
continue through the morning. However, as the 850mb front sags
farther south, it will become removed from the upper support, and
convective activity is expected to decline as these features
approach North Texas. Coverage is still likely to be widespread
enough to warrant some likely PoPs across our northwestern zones
through early afternoon before a decline in activity through late
this afternoon and evening. There will be limited, but
satisfactory elevated instability in the post-frontal airmass to
support occasional instances of thunder throughout the day. Later
this afternoon, much of the area should become nearly rain-free
with the exception of decaying activity across our northwest and
activity exiting our forecast area to the southeast.

Overnight, mostly cloudy conditions should continue with low
temperatures in the 50s and 60s area-wide. Winds will be on the
decline throughout the time, and should lessen to around 10 mph
through the overnight hours. Lingering ascent along the 850mb
front may prompt additional isolated showery activity through
daybreak Thursday, but additional widespread rainfall is unlikely
during this time period.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 330 AM CDT Wed Sep 26 2018/
/Thursday through Tuesday/

After a brief period of cool and dry weather behind the midweek
cold front, temperatures will rebound to near seasonal normals
this weekend through early next week. Gulf moisture will also
increase, resulting in more humid weather along with isolated to
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms Friday through Tuesday.

For Thursday, an upper trough axis will move east of the region,
allowing a cold front to move into the Gulf of Mexico. A few
showers will be possible across the extreme southern zones due to
some weak lift well behind the front, but most areas will be
mostly sunny, dry and cool with highs in the 70s. Clearing skies
and dry air in place Thursday night will allow for efficient
radiational cooling with lows ranging from the upper 50s in the
northwest to the middle 60s in the southeast.

Low level warm/moist advection will steadily increase Friday
through the weekend as a surface trough deepens across the
Central High Plains. Although there will be a lack of any strong
forcing for ascent, surface heating and moisture should be
sufficient for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms each
day.

High temperatures Friday through Sunday will be in the lower and
middle 80s with lows in the 60s.

Large scale subsidence will increase slightly early next week as
an upper ridge over the southeast U.S. attempts to build back to
the west. There should be enough lingering moisture for at least a
mention of some low PoPs, but most areas will be rain free and
seasonably warm for the first few days of October.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 71 59 76 63 82 / 50 20 10 5 5
Waco 78 61 78 62 83 / 50 10 10 10 10
Paris 72 58 75 60 80 / 30 30 10 5 5
Denton 67 56 75 61 81 / 50 20 10 5 5
McKinney 71 58 75 61 81 / 50 30 10 5 5
Dallas 73 61 77 64 83 / 50 20 10 5 5
Terrell 75 59 76 63 82 / 40 20 10 5 5
Corsicana 77 62 77 63 83 / 50 10 10 10 10
Temple 80 61 77 63 83 / 40 10 20 10 20
Mineral Wells 68 55 75 59 83 / 50 10 10 5 5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

26/79

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion

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