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A Few Clouds
41°F
 Cold 
Dewpoint:26°F
Humidity: 55%
Pressure: 30.59 inHg
Wind: NE 4 mph
Wind Chill: 38°F
Heat Index: None
Updated: Jan 20 2020, 8:53 am CST

7-Day Forecast

Today Tonight Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
NNE 0-5
Day2Today
Mostly sunny with a high of 55. Little to no wind.


Mostly Sunny
SE 5
Day2Tonight
Clear with a low of 34. Southeast wind around 5 mph. Wind chill value as low as 29.


Clear
E 5-10 G15
Day3Tuesday
Partly cloudy with a slight chance of rain and a high of 49. East wind 5 to 10 mph. Wind could gust as high as 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20 percent.
Tuesday Night
Mostly cloudy with rain and a low of 36. Southeast wind 10 to 15 mph. Wind could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80 percent.

20%

Slight Chance Rain
SSE 10-15 G20
Day5Wednesday
Cloudy with rain and a high of 45. South southeast wind 10 to 15 mph. Wind could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80 percent.
Wednesday Night
Mostly cloudy with showers and a low of 45. Southeast wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80 percent.

80%

Rain
NW 10
Day7Thursday
Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of showers and a high of 59. Northwest wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30 percent.
Thursday Night
Partly cloudy with a low of 40. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph.

30%

Slight Chance Showers
NW 10
Day9Friday
Mostly sunny with a high of 57. Northwest wind around 10 mph.
Friday Night
Mostly clear with a low of 36. North northwest wind 5 to 10 mph.


Mostly Sunny
NNW 5
Day11Saturday
Mostly sunny with a high of 59. North northwest wind around 5 mph.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear with a low of 38. South wind around 5 mph.


Mostly Sunny
SSW 5-10
Day13Sunday
Mostly sunny with a high of 61. South southwest wind 5 to 10 mph.
Sunday Night
Mostly cloudy with a low of 51. South wind 10 to 15 mph.


Mostly Sunny
55 34 49 | 36 45 | 45 59 | 40 57 | 36 59 | 38 61 | 51
Jan 20 Jan 20 Jan 21 Jan 22 Jan 23 Jan 24 Jan 25 Jan 26
Updated: 6:03 AM - Mon, Jan 20, 2020 Valid: Dallas/Fort Worth Airport (KDFW)

Forecast Discussion

811
FXUS64 KFWD 201112
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
512 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2020


.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
No major changes were made with this morning`s short term forecast
issuance, with the previous forecast still on track. Minor
adjustments were made to sky/temperature trends to account for the
band of cirrus draped across the I-20 corridor. These clouds have
allowed temperatures beneath it to stay about 5 degrees warmer
than surrounding sites as they inhibit outgoing radiation.
Otherwise, the rest of today/tonight`s forecast trends are in good
shape as outlined in the previous discussion below.

Previous Discussion:
/Through Tuesday/

A progressive shortwave trough is ushering some fast-moving
cirrus through the forecast area, which is temporarily hampering
radiational cooling. However, overcast skies should only last for
a few hours at any given location, and most of the area should
still have ample time for temperatures to fall to near or just
below freezing prior to sunrise. Despite its intensity, passing
cirrus will be all that this shortwave can muster due to an
absence of any meaningful moisture. Following this morning`s cloud
cover, mostly clear skies will resume today with light winds.
Another day of near-normal highs will be the result for the MLK JR
Day holiday.

With dry air remaining in place, overnight lows will be capable
of dropping to within a few degrees of the freezing mark once
again despite the return of light southerly winds. By daybreak
Tuesday, a weak backdoor frontal boundary will nudge into parts of
northeastern Texas, briefly resulting in some weak CAA and light
NE winds. This may allow temperatures to fall into the upper 20s
for lows across our far northeast zones.

Later Tuesday morning, the aforementioned boundary will quickly
wash out as all winds return to the southeast. Modest warm
advection during the day should allow highs to reach the mid 40s
to mid 50s despite a gradual increase in mid-level cloud cover
from the west. Mid and upper level moisture will spread eastward
over the entire CWA within a strong belt of westerlies associated
with an approaching upper trough. As a result, most of the area
should be overcast by the afternoon. As some top-down saturation
occurs, virga may begin falling across some of our western zones,
with some light precipitation possibly beginning to reach the
ground late in the afternoon. The more widespread rainfall will
begin later on, and this potential is addressed in the long term
portion of the forecast.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 216 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2020/
/Tuesday through Next Weekend/

A wet/cool weather pattern is shaping up mid-week and beyond
across North and Central Texas. Rain chances will start to ramp up
late Tuesday into Wednesday, with a potential for a wintry mix for
parts of Northeast Texas. Instability builds some late Wednesday
into Thursday and while a few thunderstorms are forecast, severe
weather looks unlikely at this time. Drier conditions can be
expected Friday and into the last weekend of January.

The temperature forecast on Tuesday remains difficult as a
backdoor front is expected to slide through at least parts of the
area late Monday into Tuesday. I`ll side with some of the cooler
guidance as current upstream observations across the Ozarks
indicate some pretty shallow/cold air. While some modification of
this airmass is likely, it still appears like that it`ll remain
pretty chilly as this shallow airmass invades from the northeast.
As is *usually* the case with these shallow cold air intrusions,
global guidance struggles with the speed of its forward progress.
I`ve trended toward cooler conditions north of US HWY 380 in line
closer to NAM/WRF guidance for Tuesday and Wednesday`s high
temperatures. If the cold air upstream really modifies, the
current forecast will need to be altered to reflect much warmer
conditions north of US HWY 380. This would also have ramifications
for the p-type on Wednesday morning. For now, highs in the low to
mid 40s north of this boundary are expected, with low 50s
elsewhere.

Ascent atop this cooler airmass is expected to commence late
Tuesday night into Wednesday. Initial precipitation will be light
as there will be a substantial amount of dry air to overcome. Top
down moistening will be first to occur west of US HWY 281 where
low level thermal profiles should support largely a very cold
rain. Farther east across North Texas (toward the I-35 corridor),
there will be a brief window in which moistening thermal profiles
may support a rain/light snow/light sleet mix. This potential
looks very low and for now, I`ll leave out of the forecast. The
best chance for a wintry mix will be for locations near and
northeast of a Sherman/Denison to Sulphur Springs line. Given the
run-to-run consistency of the colder model guidance and most
probable area of coldest air/most favorable thermal profiles, I
will continue to mention a wintry mix (light rain, light snow and
light sleet) across Northeast Texas.

Regarding any snow/sleet accumulation, some SREF members (though
largely based off of the colder NAM) indicate that up to 1/2 inch
of snow/sleet may fall. While not out of the realm of
possibility, this likely represents the worse case scenario. I do
believe that the potential exits for minor accumulation of
snow/sleet (mainly a light dusting) on mainly grassy surface,
however, I don`t expect major travel impacts at this time.
Moreover, the increasing WAA regime should foster an eventual
transition to just a cold rain by Wednesday afternoon. PoPs on
Wednesday will range between 60 and 80 percent range, with the
best rain/precipitation chances north of I-20 where large scale
ascent will be maximized ahead of the first shortwave trough that
will graze the area. Wednesday will be a pretty raw day with
temperatures mainly in the 40s. A few low 50s are possible across
the Big Country. If NAM guidance is to verify, however,
temperatures may remain in the low 40s area-wide.

There may be a slight lull in precipitation late Wednesday into
Thursday, but this should be short lived as the next upper trough
(a little deeper than its predecessor) will arrive from West
Texas. This should induce surface cyclogenesis upstream and result
in a stronger WAA regime (thus why temperatures on Thursday are
greater than Wednesday). The stronger southerly flow will help to
boost surface moisture and contribute to building instability. As
such, a mention of isolated thunderstorms remains in the worded
forecast, though little in the way of severe weather is
anticipated. Rain amounts will be a little heftier on Thursday,
especially across East Texas thanks to the added convective
element of precipitation. Any convective rainfall may exacerbate
any remnant creek, stream or river flooding. Rain should taper off
through the day on Thursday and by Friday morning, I expect that
most areas will be rain/storm-free as a front will sweep through
the area.

The last weekend of January appears largely dry as a less humid
airmass invades from the north. This will mean that we`ll have to
contend with cold mornings (lows in the 30s) with pretty pleasant
afternoons (highs in the 60s and possibly 70s).


Bain

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12z TAFs/

VFR will prevail through the next 24-30 hours. Winds will
generally be light and variable through mid or late afternoon with
a diffuse surface pattern in place. However, by this evening, a
light prevailing southeasterly breeze should begin which will
continue into Tuesday. Otherwise, sky conditions will consist of
some passing cirrus through this morning before clearer skies
prevail this afternoon. On Tuesday, widespread mid and high cloud
cover will begin spilling in from the west, and VFR cigs around
10-15 kft will arrive towards the very end of the TAF period.

-Stalley

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 54 33 49 36 45 / 0 0 5 80 80
Waco 55 31 55 35 48 / 0 0 5 70 70
Paris 50 30 42 33 39 / 0 0 0 50 80
Denton 53 32 48 38 45 / 0 0 5 80 80
McKinney 52 31 46 37 43 / 0 0 0 80 80
Dallas 54 33 50 38 45 / 0 0 0 80 80
Terrell 53 31 49 37 44 / 0 0 0 70 80
Corsicana 54 33 54 38 46 / 0 0 0 60 80
Temple 55 36 57 39 49 / 0 0 5 70 70
Mineral Wells 55 33 51 38 48 / 0 0 10 80 60

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

26/24

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion

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