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Dallas/Fort Worth Airport (KDFW)
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Partly Cloudy
38°F
 Cold 
Dewpoint:34°F
Humidity: 86%
Pressure: 30.10 inHg
Wind: S 8 mph
Wind Chill: 32°F
Heat Index: None
Updated: Nov 16 2018, 4:53 am CST

7-Day Forecast

Today Tonight Friday Saturday Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday
SSW 5-10
Day2Today
Mostly sunny with a high of 61. South southwest wind 5 to 10 mph.


Mostly Sunny
S 5-10
Day2Tonight
Partly cloudy with a low of 38. South wind 5 to 10 mph. Wind chill values between 31 and 34.


Partly Cloudy
SW 5-10
Day3Friday
Mostly sunny with a high of 69. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph.
Friday Night
Mostly clear with a low of 43. South wind 5 to 10 mph.


Mostly Sunny
S 10-15
Day5Saturday
Partly cloudy with a high of 70. South wind 10 to 15 mph.
Saturday Night
Mostly cloudy with a low of 45. Southeast wind 10 to 15 mph.


Partly Cloudy
NNW 15-20
Day7Sunday
Mostly cloudy with a high of 51. North northwest wind 15 to 20 mph.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy with a low of 38. North wind 10 to 15 mph.


Mostly Cloudy
N 5-10
Day9Monday
Partly cloudy with a high of 54. North wind 5 to 10 mph.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy with a low of 36. South southeast wind 5 to 10 mph.


Partly Cloudy
S 5-10
Day11Tuesday
Partly cloudy with a high of 60. South wind 5 to 10 mph.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy with a low of 45. South southeast wind 5 to 10 mph.


Partly Cloudy
SSE 10-15
Day13Wednesday
A 20 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy with a high of 60. South southeast wind 10 to 15 mph.
Wednesday Night
Cloudy with a low of 47. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph.

20%

Chance Rain
61 38 69 | 43 70 | 45 51 | 38 54 | 36 60 | 45 60 | 47
Nov 15 Nov 15 Nov 16 Nov 17 Nov 18 Nov 19 Nov 20 Nov 21
Updated: 8:53 AM - Thu, Nov 15, 2018 Valid: Dallas/Fort Worth Airport (KDFW)

Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS64 KFWD 161206
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
606 AM CST Fri Nov 16 2018


.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFs/

Sustained wind direction/speeds will be the primary challenge
through midnight Saturday. IFR/Low MVFR stratus field is forecast
to form and move northeast across eastern Central Texas by 12z
Saturday, but veered 925mb flow at 20-30 knot should keep this
stratus to the E/SE of Waco Regional Airport.

Otherwise, VFR with shortwaves aloft providing some occasional
clouds between FL250-300. Southwest winds 6-9 knots today will
back around to the south by this evening and continue through
Sunday, while increasing to between 10-15 knots by 18z Sunday.

I have kept TAFs simplistic and at one line for now. If surface
winds were to back more than currently anticipated this evening,
and/or if 925mb flow tonight remains more backed than currently
anticipated with a threat for impacts at Waco Regional, then
adjustments will need to be made in later forecast.

05/

&&


.SHORT TERM... /Issued 339 AM CST Fri Nov 16 2018/
/Today Through Saturday/

A couple of warm, mostly sunny, and at times breezy days await
those residing in North and Central Texas today and Saturday, as
high temperatures readily warm to above normal values for mid-
November around these parts. If yesterday`s warm-up was any
indication, it will be a very nice day for being outdoors later
today.

A mid-level shortwave will continue to pass east over the region
through the morning hours, but will only induce a scattered-
broken canopy of cirrus/cirrostratus, as the airmass column will
remain very dry below 400mb. Partly sunny conditions will become
mostly sunny or sunny by afternoon as the shortwave continues
moving within the fast zonal flow aloft and away from the area.
Southwesterly low level flow and 925mb-850mb thermal profiles
rising by 1-2 deg C will combine with the plentiful insolation and
expected veered low level flow for high temperatures soaring into
the upper 60s to mid 70s by this afternoon. This will be the
first time in awhile we will warm to above climatological normals
as noted above. Model blends are too slow to adjust to these
mesoscale changes as is typically the case. The forecast high
temperatures will be a good category above blended guidance
forecast high temperatures and more toward the warm European model
guidance with south/southwest winds 10 to 15 mph by midday/after.

Another, weaker mid-level shortwave within the progressive zonal
flow aloft arrives later tonight and similar to this morning`s
shortwave disturbance, will mainly produce some bands of cirrus or
cirrostratus. This disturbance will induce increasing nocturnal
925-850 flow to between 20-30 knots late tonight, especially along
and west of I-35. The low level flow just above the surface is
expected to remain veered in nature, thus any low clouds and
stratus arriving by or shortly after daybreak Saturday should
remain confined to our far southeast counties, but are not
expected to remain too long. Southerly winds tonight will remain
up near 10 knots at most locations. Combined with a slight
increase in surface dew point temperatures, we only expect lows
Saturday morning in the lower-mid 40s, though a few protected
rural area could briefly fall into the upper 30s. With ongoing low
level modified moisture advection, have some minor concerns for
the potential of light patchy fog across Central Texas early
Saturday morning, but wind speeds remaining up in the surface-
boundary layer have me refraining from inserting any mention into
the forecast attm.

Saturday will be similar to today with the Friday night shortwave
disturbance moving across during the morning hours and exiting
stage right by the afternoon hours. Any high clouds from the
shortwave should shunt east, while strong warming and mixing of
the low levels helps to rise and scatter and morning stratus
across the far southeast counties. A strong cold front, which will
be discussed more in detail in the long term discussion below,
will begin entering our far northwest counties late in the
afternoon. Though the 925mb-850 layer slightly cools in response
to increasing moist advection within the layer through the day,
cloud cover should remain scattered enough in nature to allow some
insolation through the daytime hours. Combined with the continuing
veered low level flow, compressional warming ahead of the cold
front should combine with partly sunny skies for highs warming
readily into the lower-mid 70s once again and immediately ahead of
the cold front. I tried anticipating the front`s late afternoon
arrival and held afternoon highs in the mid-upper 60s across the
immediate Red River Valley and across the far northwest counties.
If the cold front were to speed up, then highs north of I-20 and
west of I-35W will need to be cooled, possibly significantly from
what`s currently advertised in future forecasts. The airmass ahead
of the cold front will be too dry and stable for any low rain
chances Saturday afternoon.

05/

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 339 AM CST Fri Nov 16 2018/
/Saturday Evening Onward/

While the weekend will have been off to a pleasant start, some
dramatic changes will take place late Saturday thanks to the
arrival of a strong cold front. As broad positively-tilted
troughing overspreads the Central Plains, a pair of shortwave
disturbances will aid in driving an arctic cold front southward
into North Texas by late Saturday afternoon or Saturday evening.
For this forecast package, have stuck very closely to the NAM
solution through this portion of the forecast given its
proficiency in handling shallow arctic airmasses. This implies a
faster and colder frontal passage than other larger scale guidance
indicates. Current projections would place the front in
northwestern Texas by 6pm, DFW around midnight, and our
southeastern zones around daybreak Sunday, although these times
are certainly subject to change as new data arrives over the next
48 hours. Brisk north winds of 10-20 mph and some higher gusts
will follow the frontal passage resulting in strong cold
advection. This will allow temperatures to quickly drop from the
50s and 60s down to the 30s and 40s during the overnight hours.
With limited moisture and instability in place along with a lack
of dynamic ascent, precipitation chances will be largely limited
to shallow convective showers along the front. Models are
indicating some lingering weak ascent in the saturated 925-850mb
layer across parts of North Texas into Sunday morning, which may
allow some trailing light rain or drizzle to develop farther
behind the front. Fortunately, temperatures are expected to be at
least in the mid 30s to upper 30s during this time, so freezing
drizzle doesn`t appear to be in the cards for North Texas. With
cold advection continuing into Sunday and most of the area socked
in with post-frontal stratus, temperatures will likely remain
steady in the upper 30s to mid 40s throughout the day. This will
be some 20-30 degrees colder than Saturday`s highs.

Drier low-level air will begin working into the area late Sunday
and early Monday, causing skies to gradually clear from north to
south. This should aid in temperatures falling to near or below
freezing in parts of North Texas for Monday morning`s lows.
Lingering cloud cover across Central Texas should keep our
southern counties in the mid or upper 30s. Lift from a secondary
shortwave within the broad parent trough aloft will impinge on the
area later Monday. This is expected to generate a broad area of
rain mostly across south/southeast Texas where moisture won`t be
as thoroughly scoured. With a lack of moisture across North Texas,
rain chances on Monday will be confined to our southernmost
zones, roughly from Killeen to Palestine. Temperatures will
rebound from Sunday thanks to the return of some sunshine, with
highs mostly in the 50s.

We`ll be between systems on Tuesday with subsidence prevailing.
Rain chances are expected to become confined to southeast Texas
during this time frame while we experience a warming trend with a
return of light southerly winds. The next period to watch will be
Wednesday and into the Thanksgiving holiday as another shortwave
drifts eastward across the area. While models remain in
disagreement with the timing and placement of this feature, the
trend over the past couple of days has been a southward shift of
the greatest forcing. As a result, am comfortable with lowering
PoPs across North Texas on Wed/Thu while maintaining rain and
storm chances across parts of Central Texas where the better
moisture quality should be located. If it appears greater moisture
content will be present farther north or if lift intensifies,
rain chances may need to be expanded. There will certainly be
much interest in this portion of the forecast with holiday travel
considerations, and we`ll continue to monitor trends in guidance
in the coming days. Otherwise, the middle and end of the week
should be pleasant in terms of temperatures with highs in the
50s/60s and lows mostly in the 40s.

-Stalley

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 72 45 71 39 43 / 0 0 0 30 10
Waco 71 42 72 43 48 / 0 0 0 30 10
Paris 68 41 67 42 44 / 0 0 0 30 30
Denton 71 44 70 38 42 / 0 0 0 30 10
McKinney 70 43 69 39 42 / 0 0 0 30 10
Dallas 72 45 70 40 43 / 0 0 0 30 10
Terrell 70 43 70 42 45 / 0 0 0 30 20
Corsicana 69 43 69 43 47 / 0 0 0 30 20
Temple 70 42 72 43 50 / 0 0 0 20 10
Mineral Wells 73 39 71 37 41 / 0 0 0 20 10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

05/26

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion

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