Pressure: 29.82 inHg
Wind: SW 6 mph
Wind Chill: NA
Heat Index: 108°F
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FXUS64 KFWD 212010
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
310 PM CDT Sat Jul 21 2018
/This Afternoon and Tonight/
Surface analysis this afternoon indicated that much of the area
was within the thermal ridge axis ahead of the diffuse cold front
just south of the I-40 corridor in Oklahoma. This feature may
progress slowly towards the south over the next several hours, but
will likely stall as it nears the Red River. The westerly winds
ahead of this feature will continue to support temperatures
greater than 105 degrees across a majority of the area. There will
also be a risk for grassfires given the extreme heat this
afternoon and evening. Fortunately wind speeds should be light
enough to preclude rapid growth/spread of grassfires.
Very mild conditions are forecast overnight as high clouds
continue to stream in overhead. Surface winds will become more
southerly with time as the weak frontal boundary remains to the
north of the area and possibly even retreats slightly to the north.
High clouds will likely continue to invade from the north as
convection across Central Kansas is forecast again. Low
temperatures will fall into the low to mid 70s....with some
locales within urbanized areas remaining in the 80s.
/Sunday through Next Weekend/
Our dominant upper ridge will begin to shift to the west on Sunday
as an upper low deepens over the Southeast States. That being the
case, oppressive heat will continue across all of the region
Sunday as we remain under the eastern flank of the ridge. The good
news is that the resulting northerly flow aloft will begin to
usher in a slightly cooler airmass in the form of a weak cold
front on Monday and into Tuesday. The Excessive Heat Warning will
continue through Sunday for all but the far northeastern
counties, where thicker clouds and slightly cooler air will be in
place (these counties will still be under a Heat Advisory on
East to northeast winds can be expected north of the I-20
corridor on Monday as the front creeps in from the north. Thicker
high clouds will also likely spread in from the north across the
east and northeast counties within the stronger north flow aloft.
Oppressively hot conditions will persist ahead of the boundary and
west of the thicker clouds, and the Excessive Heat Warning has
been extended another day for areas along and south of I-20, and
roughly along and west of the Trinity River. A Heat advisory will
replace the Excessive Heat warning for the rest of the region
where heat indices will still approach 105.
At this time, it looks like subsidence associated with the ridge
will mitigate the potential for convection on Monday, and POPs
will remain slim to none. By Monday evening, however, models
continue to indicate a vort lobe rotating around the eastern
periphery of the ridge and igniting a few storms in the vicinity
of the surface front. Will continue with the 20 POPs along and
south of I-20 for Monday night through Tuesday night with any
additional development shifting south of the forecast area by
Wednesday. A threat for strong downburst winds may accompany a few
storms, particularly during the afternoon hours on Tuesday.
The upper ridge will remain centered well west of the area mid to
late week, but its influence will still push high temperatures to
near 100 each afternoon. A deepening trough over the Great Lakes
will weaken the ridge as we move into the weekend, dropping
temperatures ever so slightly for Saturday and Sunday. This same
system looks like it could send a stronger front southward into
the area, which may bring some relief in the form of better rain
chances and seasonable temperatures as we move into the early part
of the following week.
.AVIATION... /Issued 1242 PM CDT Sat Jul 21 2018/
18 UTC TAF Cycle
Concerns---Subtle wind shifts. Otherwise...VFR.
West to southwest surface winds are expected to continue into the
afternoon with speeds of around 10 to 12 knots at all terminals.
These magnitudes will not result in any operationally significant
crosswinds. Surface winds will then back toward the south this
evening and diminish to below 10 knots. Around daybreak Sunday,
surface winds will veer to the west with speeds of around 10
knots. Surface winds may turn more towards the west-northwest on
Sunday afternoon. The only obstruction to the sky through the TAF
cycle should be some cirrus between FL250 and FL300, though a few
pockets of mid-level clouds around Fl150 cannot be ruled out.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 82 108 83 104 80 / 0 0 0 5 10
Waco 79 108 80 108 80 / 0 0 0 5 20
Paris 76 103 77 98 74 / 5 0 5 5 5
Denton 77 109 78 103 77 / 0 0 0 5 10
McKinney 77 106 78 102 77 / 5 0 0 5 5
Dallas 84 108 84 105 82 / 0 0 0 5 10
Terrell 78 109 79 103 78 / 0 0 5 5 10
Corsicana 77 105 79 106 78 / 0 0 0 5 20
Temple 75 107 77 107 79 / 0 0 0 5 20
Mineral Wells 75 109 78 107 77 / 0 0 0 0 20
Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Monday for TXZ115>119-
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for TXZ094-095-105>107-123.
Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ091>093-
Heat Advisory from 7 PM Sunday to 7 PM CDT Monday for TXZ091>093-
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
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